Your 2011 New England Patriots Offense

As of today, the NFL lockout is rumored to be ending within the next few days. The timing couldn't be more perfect, because if the NFL and the Players Association can come to agreement this week, free agency would be set to begin around July 28th (the same few days of the MLB trade deadline). The beginning of free agency will be a lot like opening a dam that is literally spewing over the top, meaning the first hour will be absolute insanity. There is sure to be a scurry of trades, releases, signings, and any type of player movement imaginable. Pro Bowl-caliber players such as DeAngelo Williams, Sidney Rice, Vincent Jackson, Matt Hasselbeck, Logan Mankins, Ray Edwards, Cullen Jenkins, Manny Lawson, Stephen Tulloch, Nnamdi Asmougha, and Michael Huff could all change uniforms at the strike of midnight. The NFL QB-carousel will also be in full swing, with names like Kevin Kolb, Marc Bulger, Kyle Orton, Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, Tavaris Jackson, and Vince Young, to name a few, all finding new homes and potential starting gigs. But in the end, New Englanders really only care about two aspects of free agency: who the Patriots will sign, and who the Jets WON'T sign. Let's take a look at possible Patriot targets, broken down by position. The defensive segment will follow in the coming days.

1. QB - The Patriots have the least to worry about at quarterback of any team in the NFL. A healthy Tom Brady is as solid as the position gets. Behind him, they have a future star (my personal opinion) in Ryan Mallett, and Brian Hoyer is a decent third option with a few seasons under his belt. The Pats aren't likely to sign a QB, but could bring one or two into camp to compete with Hoyer for third-string. Belichick loves to have youth infused into the depth chart, so bringing in former UDel QB Pat Devlin for the practice squad or Drew Stanton to compete with Hoyer isn't out of the question. With the Patriots to be a projected 10-12 million dollars under the cap, look for them to only bring a QB in at the league minimum and nothing more.
   
2. RB - Fred Taylor won't be back, as his contract has run out and he will in all likelihood hang up his cleats. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who eclipsed 1000 yards last season, was tendered with a second round pick as a restricted free agent, and will likely be part of the starting backfield. Danny Woodhead was locked up with a two year contract through 2012, and will again be utilized by the Patriots with his unique skill set. Sammy Morris's latest contract has run out, but he is a key contributor on special teams and on the goal line, and may return on a low-cost, one year deal. Kevin Faulk no longer has a place on the Patriots, with Woodhead as the main pass-catching threat out of the backfield, and will either retire or try to catch on elsewhere. Finally, the Patriots drafted big Shane Vereen out of Cal, who projects to be a large change of pace-type back, and Stevan Ridley, who could be the Patriots version of a fullback with his enormous size and downhill run style. All-in-all, they are looking at a Green-Ellis/Woodhead/Morris/Vereen/Ridley offensive backfield, which is overcrowded to say the least. Look for them to bring in a low-cost speedster in free agency, such as undrafted free agent Noel Devine from West Virginia, or Derrick Locke from Kentucky. They have no need to spend big on the running game, since they are a pass-first offense. They surely will not even make an offer to any of the top-tier free agent backs, as is accustomed to their usual free agency approach.
3. WR - Wes Welker and Deion Branch will both see plenty of targets this season, and Brandon Tate will fill out the depth chart. What the Patriots lack is a true #2 WR option after Welker, because Branch and Welker are both slot receivers. They felt the impact of trading Randy Moss, as hard as it is to admit, and will either await Chad Johnson's release from the Bengals, or uncharacteristically target one of the top free agents. Sidney Rice would be an amazing addition to an already potent offense, but he is likely to command one of the larger contracts handed out, and may be priced out of the Patriots range. Malcolm Floyd and Mike Sims-Walker would be excellent alternative options, as both are coming off down years and may be cheaper options then Rice. Nate Burleson and the Panther's Steve Smith are both trade/release candidates, and it isn't far-fetched to see either end up here. In the end, it seems "Ochocinco" is destined to end up in New England at some point in his career, and the time may be now. I predict he is the most likely to end up a Patriot in 2011, followed by Malcolm Floyd and Steve Smith. Sidney Rice has an outside chance if the Patriots decide to spend their remaining cap space on the offensive side of the ball, but their defensive needs are more dire and thus they are more likely to spend on pass-rushers.
4. TE - The Patriots have two of the best young tight ends in the game with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Both had huge rookie seasons, and filled the Patriots void in their WR depth. Alge Crumpler enters his final year of his contract with the Pats, and will remain their blocking tight end. The team has no need for another tight end, and will fill out their training camp depth with newly drafted Lee Smith from Marshall.
5. OT - Sebastian Vollmer is a lock at starting tackle, and newly drafted Nate Solder could potentially step in and start immediately if the Patriots are willing to rely on a rookie tackle. Matt Light, who has spent his career in NE, is a free agent and all signs point to the Patriots opting to not re-sign him. Gigantic Marcus Cannon, the Pats 5th-round pick out of TCU, was a projected first round pick before it was discovered he has non-Hodgkin's lymphoma at the combine. The good news is Cannon could completely recover and even play in 2011, and because of his 6'5, 350-pound frame, he can play anywhere on the OL but center. He certainly has a future as a starting NFL offensive lineman, and the Patriots truly got a steal by taking him so late in the draft. But they will approach the season with the notion that he may not be available until week 6 at the earliest. The Patriots asked Nick Kaczur to take a pay-cut from his $3.4 million salary prior to the 2011 season, and they are now fully expected to release him after he declined. Little known Quinn Ojinnaka is a free agent, leaving the Patriots with just Mark LeVoir and Steve Maneri behind Vollmer and Solder. To keep Brady injury-free, the Patriots will need solid play from their tackles, and it is safe to say Solder and Vollmer will need help at some point in the season. The Patriots will either need to sign Matt Light, or bring in a free agent tackle that excels in pass-protection, such as former Seahawk Sean Locklear or often injured former Bronco Ryan Harris.
6. OG - Nine-year inspirational Stephen Neal has retired, Logan Mankins is demanding $10 million or to be granted free agency, and Dan Connolly is left as the only experienced guard on the team. The Patriots have Rich Ohrnberger, Thomas Austin, and Ryan Wendell to fill out their depth, but they are in dire need of starting-caliber guards. If they can convince Mankins to return, their offensive line outlook is much more positive, but Mankins gives the perception that he is all about the money, which is a far-cry from the Patriot mantra. There are a few solid, veteran guards on the market, including Justin Blalock, Derrick Dockery, David Baas, and Robert Gallery, but the Patriots tend to promote from within when it comes to the middle of the OL. They will likely start Connolly and attempt to lock up Mankins, but if Mankins refuses to accept the franchise tag salary or accept a multi-year deal, the Patriots will be forced to move on without him and sign a veteran guard. Belichick surely has a plan in place already for the position, and it is anyone's guess whom he is targeting.
7. C - Dan Koppen will remain the Patriots reliable center. Guard Ryan Wendell is their backup center, and the team has no need to bring in a free agent at the position. Center is seemingly the only position on the Patriots' OL that there is no need to worry about.