The Hangover Effect

After the Cleveland Cavaliers were blown out by the Lakers, 112-57 on Tuesday, everyone and their mom (pun intended) made a huge deal about LeBron's tweet. Although LeBron says the words weren't his own, his tweet stated "Crazy. Karma is a bitch. Gets you every time. It's not good to wish bad on anybody. God sees everything!" So maybe his words seem cocky, and he should more or less pity the Cavs as opposed to mocking them, but the NBA is the most elite basketball league in the world. Who cares what players have to say, if they are putting up the results and wins, they are free to say what they want. The assumption that karma has anything to do with it may be outlandish, but if you take the Cavs current record into perspective, they certainly are nothing without LeBron. Let's explore what I will refer to as the "Hangover Effect".
In any sport, when a team loses a superstar to free agency, trade, or retirement, it can have a devastating effect on the franchise. Some may quickly recover, whether it is due to an improved team chemistry or a player stepping up in a time of need (ie. the 2001 Patriots and Tom Brady, 2010 Eagles and Mike Vick, 2003-2004 Utah Jazz and Andrei Kirilenko, etc.). Other times, the loss of a key player will cripple a franchise for up to a decade. After LeBron and Co. took their talents to South Beach this summer, both Cleveland and Toronto are feeling the aftershock of losing James and Chris Bosh, respectively. After 38 games last year, the Raptors were 19-19, and well in the hunt for one of the final three playoff spots in the top-heavy Eastern Conference. At the same point this year, Toronto is 13-25, good for 11th place in the Eastern Conference, and only 5 wins ahead of the team with the worst record in the NBA, which ironically is the Cavaliers. Although Toronto is struggling without Bosh, and having to rely on the likes of Andrea Bargnani and Tommy Heinson's proclaimed worst player in the NBA, Jose Calderon, Cleveland is feeling the pain ten times worse.
The 2002-2003 season was dismal for Cleveland, as they finished 17-65, and their leading scorer was Ricky Davis. They hit paydirt in the lottery, grabbing the first pick and taking LeBron. The next season, LeBron would lead the team with almost 21 ppg, and the team improved to 35-47, missing the playoffs by one game. The Cavs finished the 2004-2005 season at 42-40, tied for 8th but losing out on the tiebreaker for the final playoff spot. After that disappointing season, the Cavs would never miss the playoffs again during LeBron's tenure, finishing 4th, 2nd, 4th, 1st, and 1st in the Eastern Conference through 2010. Their run included a 2007 appearance in the Finals against the Spurs, which they were promptly swept in. LeBron won a scoring title in 2008, back to back MVP's in 2009 and 2010, and made 6 All-Star teams while making $27 million a year in his early 20's. LeBron's career stats with Cleveland are virtually unmatchable, as he played in 548 regular season games, averaging 27.8 ppg, 7 rpg, and the Cavs went 349-225 during that stretch, winning at a 60.8% clip. The Cavs also made 5 straight playoff appearances, in which LeBron averaged almost 30 ppg in 71 games. No one needs to dive into James' stats to know the impact he has had on the NBA, but more interestingly is the "Hangover Effect" that Cleveland is feeling now that he has departed.
Through 38 games this year, Cleveland is a league worst 8-30. Through the same period last year, the Cavs were 28-10, just 2 games behind the Celts for the league's best record. To date, their -20 win differential is league worst. LeBron had triple-doubled twice through the first 2.5 months, averaging nearly 30 ppg and 7 rpg. This year, Antawn Jamison leads the Cavs with 16.7 ppg, and the Cavs are averaging just 93.3 ppg, compared to last years total of 102.1 ppg. To put the complete change in team success into perspective, look at these key stats:

• 2009-2010 Cavs average 102.1 ppg, allowed 95.6 ppg (+6.5 ppg differential)
• 2010-2011 Cavs average 93.3 ppg, allowed 103.9 ppg (-10.6 ppg differential)

• 2009-2010 Cavs finished 61-21, longest losing streak was 4 games
• 2010-2011 Cavs on pace to finish 18-64, longest losing streak to date is 11 (lost 21 of last 22 games currently)

• 2009-2010 Cavs had a league best 35-6 home record
• 2010-2011 Cavs are currently 5-12 at home, on pace to finish 12-29

• 2009-2010 Cavs were 9th in the NBA in PPG, 2nd in 3-point FG%, 3rd in FG%, 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in APG, 1oth in BPG, and only turned the ball over 13.9 times per game
• 2010-2011 Cavs are 27th in the NBA in PPG, 26th in 3-point FG%, 29th in FG%, 23rd in PPG allowed, 16th in APG, 30th in BPG, and turn the ball over 13.6 times per game

• The 2009-2010 Cleveland Cavaliers franchise had an estimated value of $476 million.
• The 2010-2011 Cleveland Cavaliers franchise has a projected estimate worth of $226 million. The loss of LeBron devalued the franchise by around $250 million.

If those numbers don't prove the impact of losing a superstar, I don't know what does. The purpose of this analogy is not to blame LeBron for almost single-handedly destroying the franchise, but just to show the impact he has had on them in his absence. In my opinion, his loss is one the team will never recover from, and it is hard to see the Cavs still in Cleveland in the next ten years or so.