Back in late August, it seemed about 100 times more far-fetched that the Patriots would be Super Bowl favorites. But heading into week 17, they have steamrolled through the NFL's toughest schedule, going 13-2 and beating contenders like San Diego, Indy, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay, and the "almighty" Jets, to name a few. If it wasn't for the Randy Moss factor against the Jets the first time around, and the surprising play of Colt McCoy/Peyton Hillis, we could be looking at 16-0 again this year. But with an easy home-matchup against Miami this week, we'll have to settle for 14-2.
None of the teams that have locked up playoff spots in the AFC have daunting matchups this week, and barring an upset or "tossed game", all six will probably win, leading to the final standings that are seen above. Indy will sneak into the last divisional spot with a win over Tennessee, and Jacksonville will again be on the outside looking in at what was probably the best division-winning opportunity they have had in a while. The Jets can thank the Bengals for knocking San Diego out of the picture last week, because otherwise they would've been facing a thirsty Buffalo team with the opportunity to knock them out of the playoffs with the combination of a Chargers win at Denver. Nevertheless, here is what the playoffs hold in store for the Patriots on their road to Super Bowl 45 in Dallas:
AFC Wild Card Playoffs:
#6 New York Jets @ #3 Kansas City Chiefs
- KC's season was nothing short of magical. A division dominated by the Chargers over the past few years, Kansas City simply won with consistency. They won the games they had to, and even with 3 divisional losses, managed to outlast San Diego's short-lived rally with their defeat in Cincy last week. This team was supposed to be at least a year from being a division contender, but thanks to Todd Haley's coordinating duo of Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel, they locked it up good and early. Unfortunately, they won't be able to get by the Jets in round one. New York's defense isn't as stellar as they were made out to be going into the season, but they still are in the top five in yards against, both in the air and on the ground. Revis Island hasn't been much of an island, and the Jets are actually last in the NFL with only 8 interceptions on defense, but Kansas City relies heavily on their two-headed monster RB attack, and the Jets are great against the run. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones have been an excellent tandem, and Charles is currently second in the NFL in rushing yards, but KC doesn't have the pass-catching depth to overcome NY's defense, and the Jets should be able to put up the points necessary to win the game.
- Prediction: New York Jets 24, Kansas City Chiefs 19
- They faced off in the wild card round last year, with the Colts winning 20-3. The game actually went just as predicted, as Indy got nothing going on the ground, but Manning threw 2 TD's which was enough to beat the Ravens poor passing game and the Rice/McGahee ground game. They actually faced off in the divisional round in 2006 as well, with Indy winning that matchup 15-6. Those were completely different teams, but in total Indy has bested Baltimore in the playoffs 35-9 in the last two contests. This year should be a different story. The Colts have been injury plagued, with key pieces Austin Collie, Joseph Addai, Mike Hart, Dallas Clark, and a few others missing most or all of the season. Manning has been great, but not dominant without his usual weapons, and facing a very good Ravens defense will be a much more difficult task. Baltimore's offense is a completely different story this year. They retooled their offense with Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmandzadeh at WR, and Ray Rice has been nothing but spectacular. Indy's defense can't stop anyone at this point, and without Clark and Collie on offense, it will be tough to outscore a Ravens team that averages 115 yards per game on the ground and a healthy 22.9 points per game. The Colts' playoff win streak against Baltimore ends here, and Indy will lose their first home playoff game since 2007.
- Prediction: Baltimore Ravens 31, Indianapolis Colts 27
#6 New York Jets @ #1 New England Patriots
- The world watched as the Pats dissembled the Jets in week 13 by a score of 45-3. Brady threw 4 touchdowns, the Patriots dominated every aspect of the game, and the Jets reign atop the division ended abruptly. Don't expect the same result in this game. The Jets should have their confidence built back up after beating KC, and will be better prepared for New England this time around. But the Pats will have two weeks of rest under their belt, and at this point are seemingly unstoppable on offense. The only question mark the Patriots have is on defense, but they have outscored opponents 156-40 over the last four games. Only the Packers have scored more than once on the young D over the last four games, and Belichick is lethal with more than one week of preparation. Without diving into stats and prior matchups, it is safe to say the Patriots will win this one handily.
- Prediction: New England Patriots 31, New York Jets 10
- These division rivals faced off twice this year, with the away team winning both matchups by a 3 point margin. The Ravens took the first matchup against a Roethlisberger-less Pitt team in week 4, 17-14, on a last minute TD reception by Housh. The Steelers won the second matchup 13-10 on a Big Ben TD pass with 3 minutes remaining, which basically clinched the division (unless they lose and the Ravens win week 17). The Steelers-Ravens matchup has been the most competitive in the NFL over the last few years, as they have faced off 7 times since the end of the 2007 season. In fact, the largest margin of victory was by 4 points in a 13-9 Steelers win on the road in 2008. They also faced off in the playoffs in 2008, with Pittsburgh winning 23-14 on the way to their Super Bowl victory over Arizona. In the two teams last 7 games, Pittsburgh has outscored Baltimore only 126-110, winning 5 of 7 with two of the contests going into OT. This game is almost impossible to predict, but the Ravens have yet to beat Pittsburgh in the playoffs, and haven't made it to an AFC title game since 2008 when they lost to the Steelers. I'll take the Steelers at home to face off with the Patriots for the AFC crown.
- Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Baltimore Ravens 21
#2 Pittsburgh Steelers @ #1 New England Patriots
- In week 10, the Patriots looked like a team still looking for an identity after losing to Cleveland, while the Steelers were rolling. Then Tom Brady dismembered Pittsburgh, throwing 3 TD's and for 350 yards, beating the Steelers 39-26. The Steelers only made it a game in the fourth quarter as they scored 23 points, but even that wasn't enough as the Patriots completely had their way. Pitt could get nothing going on the ground, and only in the air were they able to stay close, but they do not have the talent to go score-for-score with the Pats. Even though Pittsburgh is the #2 seed in the AFC, this matchup would be one of the more favorable ones for the Patriots in the championship game. Brady and the Pats have the Steelers number, and it is hard to see the Steelers making much of a game out of this. The Patriots should easily beat the Steelers at home to head to the Super Bowl.
- Prediction: New England Patriots 38, Pittsburgh Steelers 28
The NFC's Super Bowl representative will come down to one of four teams: the Eagles, Saints, Falcons, or Bears. Each has shown both brilliance and vulnerability throughout the season, but the most consistent team has been the Falcons. Philly has been stellar with Mike Vick at the helm, but opponents have kept games close, and the Bears showed the league how to contain Philly's offense. Matt Ryan is much like Tom Brady, as he is cool in the pocket and has the aura of a winner. If they lock up home-field throughout, it is hard to see them losing either of their playoff games, regardless of who they face. If they can avoid Philly, they should easily win the conference. But the conference will likely come down to either of the birds, and from there it is anyone's guess, but for now I'll predict that Atlanta reaches its first Super Bowl since being blown away by John Elway's Broncos in 1999. A Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl would be a great matchup, with the Patriots winning their 4th Super Bowl in ten years, but hats will go off to the young and competitive Falcons for making it all the way there.
Super Bowl Prediction:
Patriots 38, Falcons 24
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