It's funny how down Red Sox fans can get on their team after winning two World Series in four years after an 86-year drought. But in New England, we have come to expect nothing but championship-caliber rosters, competition, and success in all of our professional sports. We were jaded after the Pats won three Super Bowls from 2001-2005. Ray Allen and KG brought Celtic pride back to Boston with banner 17 in their first season as part of the "Big 3". Even the Bruins young core that includes Kreiji, Bergeron, Seguin, Lucic, Horton, and Rask, are showing toughness and have been competitive over the past few seasons. But to sports fans in New England, the past is nothing but a distant memory.
The Red Sox have seen a downward trend since their division-winning, World Series championship team in 2007. We all remember the '08 team that lost a heartbreaker in game 7 of the ALCS in Tampa. 2009 was even worse, as they were bounced by the Angels in the ALDS without putting up much of a fight. This season they finally reached rock bottom, as they not only missed the playoffs and finished third in the AL East, but they finished shy of 90 wins for the first time since 2006. It wasn't so much the fact that the Sox were losing too many games, but rather in the way there were doing so. The 2010 team was supposed to be about "pitching and defense", a motto that Theo Epstein preached from day one. Instead, they led the league in total bases and had a top-three finish in most major offensive categories. As for the pitching and defense? The 4.19 staff ERA was good for 9th in the AL, they were second in blown saves (22), and even while leading the league in strikeouts still found a way to have the third from worst fielding percentage in the AL. The Yankees had 42 less errors as a team! The play of one-year stopgap Adrian Beltre was the lone bright spot on the diamond, along with starting pitchers Buchholz and the always-reliable Lester. It is hard to place the blame on Theo, as coming into the season the rotation of Lester/Beckett/Lackey/Dice-K/Buchholz looked like one of the best rotations in baseball. Who knew that Beckett would be so bad, and that Lackey so inconsistent?
The first step of determining just what will fix this team is to look at the certainties for 2011. Scutaro will be at shortstop, Pedroia at second, Drew in right, and Ortiz DHing. Youkilis will be at one of the corners, and rumor has it that Theo sees him as a permanent third baseman, even with his Gold Glove caliber play at first. Even without knowing his true reasoning, it is certainly easier to find a first baseman worthy of playing in the competitive AL East than a third baseman. At catcher, Saltalamacchia will either platoon with a re-signed Varitek, or will be the backup to Victor Martinez in the unlikely event he returns.
As for the rotation, it is virtually set to be almost the same. Beckett and Lackey's deals are immovable, and the Sox surely will hope they can get more consistency and wins out of the both of them in 2011. Lester and Buchholz are untouchables. Wakefield has seen his last days in a Sox uniform, unless they sign him to make spot starts and spend the majority of the season on the DL with "unspecified injuries". It would be nice to see Matsuzaka dealt, but as an opposing GM I wouldn't touch him unless I was a NL club desperate for arms. The rotation will be rounded out by either Dice-K, Doubront, or a low risk/high reward free agent arm that Theo brings in, and we all know how well that has worked in the past (ie Smoltz, Penny, etc.). The bullpen needs a few solid arms, which it desperately lacked in 2010. We will hear the yearly speculation of Papelbon being dealt this offseason, but it won't happen because of his price tag after arbitration. Bard is the only definite return-reliever, with the possibility of newly acquired Taylor Buchholz and/or Andrew Miller joining him. Okajima won't be back unless it's on a low cost one year deal. Bowden struggled as a reliever and may not be the prospect he was made out to be, and Atchison will probably end up as the fifth or sixth arm in the pen. The bullpen is ultimately the biggest project of the offseason, as the majority of familiar faces are either long-gone or about to be jettisoned. But as a Red Sox fan, I am quite happy to not have to endure the struggles of Delcarmen, Ramirez, or Schoeneweis again.
Based on those players still under contract and the speculation by Boston sports writers, below is the 2011 Red Sox lineup as of November:
- Catcher - Jarrod Saltalamacchia
- 1st Base - TBD
- 2nd Base - Dustin Pedroia
- 3rd Base - Kevin Youkilis
- Shortstop - Marco Scutaro
- Right Field - JD Drew
- Center Field - Mike Cameron
- Left Field - Jacoby Ellsbury
- DH - David Ortiz
- SP1 - Jon Lester
- SP2 - Clay Buchholz
- SP3 - Josh Beckett
- SP4 - John Lackey
- SP5 - Daisuke Matsuzaka
- RP - Felix Doubront
- RP - Taylor Buchholz
- RP - Daniel Bard
- CL - Jonathan Papelbon
- Jayson Werth - He will hit around .300 annually, and is a 30 HR / 100 RBI caliber player with a good glove and fielding ability. He is going to command a $100+ million contract, and at 31 it wouldn't be wise to go over four years with a deal. Theo probably agrees, and would probably give Werth a maximum deal of 5 years/$115 million. But Werth should be Plan C for this team, as he is a right fielder and is prone to injuries. He certainly would improve the team, but would be more of a "want" than a "need" for this team.
- Carl Crawford - Many feel Crawford has long been destined to be a Red Sox. He has excellent speed, can play RF or CF, and is only 29 years old. Signing him would give the Sox ample lineup options, including moving Pedroia to leadoff and playing Crawford in the two hole. He is worthy of a five or six year deal, and will probably get the latter. Theo will have to fully commit to Crawford to lure him to Boston, with a contract in the ballpark of 6 years for $120 million or more. But Crawford should be Plan A. He fits many of the Red Sox needs, and brings the "star power" this team has lacked since Manny's departure.
While on the subject of first base, Gonzalez needs to be in Boston sooner than later. The Padres have conceded that he will not be with the team in 2012, as he enters free agency, and will opt to deal him either this offseason or at the deadline. The Red Sox need to do what it takes to get him now, and lock him up. He rounds out what would be an excellent infield, allowing Youk to move to third. Even though the young arms of Casey Kelly, Anthony Ranaudo, Junichi Tazawa, and Doubront are considered top prospects, the Red Sox have a solid rotation for the next 4-5 years already. Dealing their young guns won't deplete the major league roster, and is necessary to win now. Gonzo should be in Boston prior to the start of the season if the Red Sox want to start the season off hot.
As I stated before, the bullpen is the major offseason project. They need to sign a proven reliever to give their bullpen any sort of credibility. Here's who they should target:
- Rafael Soriano - He broke out as a closer in Tampa this year. He certainly will be coveted by any team with an opening at closer, and even the Red Sox could consider moving Papelbon and inserting Soriano into the role. But it is highly unlikely they would dish out the large type of deal that would land Soriano, especially when they have a closer-in-waiting with Bard. You can pretty much scratch Soriano off the list of Red Sox possibilities.
- Scott Downs - The consensus is that Downs will end up either with the Yankees or Sox. The Sox need to sign him for their own needs as well as to prevent facing him. He is the nasty left-handed arm the Sox have missed for some time, and probably has a solid three or four good years left. Downs is a must have for the Sox.
- Grant Balfour - Coming from Tampa, the Sox have seen plenty of the hard throwing righty. He would make a good addition to the pen, but only on a one year deal as he is aging and has seen both his numbers and velocity drop over the past few seasons.
- Jon Rauch - He has closed and been a setup man, but he is probably more valuable as the latter. He wasn't the answer for the Twins when Nathan went down, and would provide solid depth as a late inning bridge to the closer. A desperate team could give him a large one year deal as a closer, but its more likely he will get a multi-year deal as a reliever. His value is slightly higher than that of his former teammate, Jesse Crain, because he has been able to remain healthy. But a healthy Crain throws harder and would fetch a better deal than Rauch.
- A few other names to throw out are Frank Fransisco, Matt Guerrier, Jason Frasor, Miguel Batista, Chad Durbin, Kevin Gregg, Trevor Hoffman, and Dan Wheeler, just to name a few. The Sox will likely target one of the big name relievers, and fill in the holes with one or two middle of the road type arms. Relievers are often hit or miss, and in Theo's case, usually a miss. But the more the merrier when it comes to pitching, so any RP brought to Boston is a plus.
2011 Boston Red Sox
- Catcher - Saltalamacchia
- 1st - Gonzalez
- 2nd - Pedroia
- 3rd - Youkilis
- SS - Scutaro
- RF - Drew
- CF - Cameron
- LF - Crawford
- DH - Ortiz
- SP1 - Lester
- SP2 - Buchholz
- SP3 - Beckett
- SP4 - Lackey
- SP5 - Dice-K
- RP - Frasor
- RP - Downs
- RP - Bard
- RP - T. Buchholz
- CL - Papelbon
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