Lackeying the Right Pieces: Goodbye 2010

Heading into the final 31 games over September and October, the Sox are 6.5 games back in both the division and wild card race. The season is over. The top two teams in baseball loom over Boston in the star-filled AL East, and the Red Sox simply do not have the pieces to overcome, or even match-up with either Tampa or New York. As New England anticipates the start of the NFL season and the Celtics run at banner 18, it is time to reflect on what went wrong with the Sox this year.

1. The injury bug was certainly the biggest reason this team underachieved. It is hard for any team to overcome lengthy injuries to its key players, and the Red Sox defined this trend. They lost Youkilis for the year before the start of the final third of the season, arguably the most crucial point in their schedule. Pedroia was lost only a week before, and fell short in his comeback attempt after only two games. Ellsbury was basically MIA the whole season, and Cameron's abdominal problems nagged him from day 1. Of the 40 players on their roster, 21 were injured at some point in the season. They have played almost half the season missing 4 regulars on the field. Depending on the likes of Darnell McDonald, Ryan Kalish, Daniel Nava, Kevin Cash, Yamaico Navarro, and Eric Patterson simply will not work in the most competitive division in baseball. Even Keanu Reeves would think twice about trying to lead this band of replacements to the promised land.

2. The whole pitching and defense mantra that Theo preached coming into the season didn't work out so well. Lester has pitched well, and Clay is probably a Cy Young candidate. But Lackey has been streaky and often disappointing, Wakefield is no longer a viable option, Dice-K can't get past the sixth inning, and Beckett has been absolutely horrible. Aside from Bard, the bullpen was one of the worst in baseball. Papelbon underachieved, blowing 6 saves and recording a career high ERA. Previously dependable arms like Okajima, Ramirez, and Delcarmen all posted high ERA's, blew multiple hold opportunities, and simply could not get the job done. Defensively, the team currently stands at 15^th in baseball with a .983 FP, and bottom-feeding teams like Seattle, Arizona, Kansas City, and Washington have made less errors in the field. It is not possible to be a playoff contender when your pitching staff has an ERA in the bottom 50% of the MLB, and has allowed the 10^th most runs.

3. Offensive, no one player has stood out in terms of having an amazing year in Tampa. Aside from David Price, the Rays staff has been deep, consistent, and Soriano has been shut-down. Up the coast in New York, Robbie Cano and CC Sabathia lead a Yankee squad tied for first in baseball in wins. The surprising part? A-Rod, Tex, Posada, Granderson, Vazquez, and Burnett are all having mediocre to horrible seasons. Yet they have found a way to win 80 games. They are on pace for another 100 win season. They probably will win the World Series. For Tampa and New York, it comes down to one major difference in why they stay ahead of the Red Sox. They win the games they are supposed to win. They put away the Seattles, Kansas Citys, Clevelands, and Oaklands of the game. They win the crucial 5 to 10 extra inning games necessary to capture the division. Boston? They have the fourth worst record in extra innings in 2010, above only Washington, Florida, and Seattle. They lost games where their starters flirted with no-hitters. They opened the second half of the season by losing 3 of 4 to Texas AT HOME. Sure, they turned a home-series sweep by the Rays into a sweep of their own down in Tampa, but they followed that moral-boosting series with two straight losses at home to Kansas City. If making the MLB playoffs was compared to making the NCAA March Madness Tournament, the Red Sox would be a perennial bubble team. In 2010, Boston's bubble finally burst after months of false hope and expectations.

Filling in the Blanks

As the Red Sox square off with the lowly Mariners for game one of today's double-header, Sox fans can look ahead a couple days to the biggest series of the season so far. Six back from both the division and wild card spots, Boston heads to Tampa for a three game series against a Rays team that has won 11 of their last 14 games. With 30 games to go, unless Boston sweeps it is hard to see them snagging a playoff spot, much ado to their injury woes. But that isn't the issue I am addressing. The problem with the Red Sox is how boring of a team they have become. And the fans certainly agree. TV and radio ratings have been down as much as almost 40% over the course of the season, even while the team stands at 18 games above .500! Much of this can be attributed to injuries to star players, such as Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia. Sox nation has also been distraught by the horrid pitching, notably from the bullpen. Nothing was done at the trade deadline, and there has been speculation since the beginning of the season that Theo Epstein was using 2010 as a “transition year” by waiting for the future stars to mature in the minors. Ultimately, there are two glaring weaknesses the Red Sox roster possesses.

The first is the lack of an “attractive” player. Since the departure of Manny Ramirez, the Red Sox have lacked that marquee name that casual baseball fans come to the ballpark to see. Youk, Pedroia, Lester, Bard, Ortiz, and Beltre all have had terrific seasons and any team would love to have them, but the fact is that none are marquee players. Players that would fall under this category are more along the lines of Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer, Mark Texieria, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Prince Fielder, Johan Santana, or CC Sabathia to name a few. Even up-and-coming superstars, like Joey Votto, Ike Davis, Austin Jackson, Stephen Strausberg, Evan Longoria and Josh Johnson bring in fans with their aura. As Red Sox fans with two World Series victories since 2004, we are jaded and expect big names from the outrageously high payroll the team boasts. As a team that can afford top players, Sox fans expect to see ace quality starting pitchers, and sluggers that hit 40 home runs without breaking a sweat. It is true that since the conclusion of the 2004 World Series, only 33 players have hit 40 or more home runs in a season. Manny did it for the Sox in 2005, and Ortiz in 2005 and 2006, but since 2006 only Ortiz and Jason Bay have reached even the 36 home run plateau. This year? Ortiz leads the team with 27 home runs, good for tenth in baseball. But that isn't enough for the fans. Home runs lead to higher scoring, more exciting games, both of which the Red Sox have had plenty of, but they lack the “big-name” presence in their lineup since the departure of Manny.

The second glaring yet overlooked weakness is the lead-off spot. The Sox had the third best average in the MLB from the lead-off spot in Johnny Damon's final year in 2005. He led-off almost every game, and batted .312 with a healthy .363 OBP. Since then, the Red Sox have tried numerous players in the one spot, only to come up short. In order from 2006 to this season, Sox lead-off hitters have batted .260, .266, .256, .276, and .266 for the season. They have experimented with Youkilis, JD Drew, Coco Crisp, Julio Lugo, Jacoby Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Marco Scutaro, none of which have worked out consistently. Even more important than average in OBP by the one hitter, in which the Sox have also faltered. Since 2006, Ellsbury/Scutaro/Lugo have led off the most, and the Sox haven't ranked higher than 22^nd in the MLB in lead-off OBP. Any baseball fan knows you can't score runs if there is no one on base, and although they won the World Series in 2007 with poor leadoff production, the statistics do not reflect the late-season call-up and postseason heroics of Jacoby Ellsbury, leading to the false notion that he was the future of the Red Sox in the one hole.

The solution to both of these problems? It remains to be seen, but I have a few suggestions as you will see in the upcoming post. Until then, wish the Sox much luck.

Sean v. Tyler Update For A Cool G

No one cares but me and Sean, but this is the update anyways. 2010 home run numbers are as of the morning of August 17th. Sean was quickly pulling away, but unfortunately ARod has been on a tear, and Chris Young has cooled off after a thumping start. We have also added an addendum to the bet: if one of us dies before the bet is over, the winner still gets the money. A trust will be set up that the winner can either withdraw from, or the cash will be placed in the casket with the winner if he is dead. OK!

Why the Yankees Really Do Suck

Just see the chart. And the Sox MAIN focus was pitching and defense, looks like we got quite a better bang for our buck. If it wasn't for injuries they'd be looking up at us in the standings right now.....

Sox to be ME

Famous Red Sox Pizza Incident Video

The above video is one of my all-time favorites. It is over a year old, but hearing Orsillo cracking up over the pizza is still hilarious. Which is why I thought I'd share a story of my own....
So I'm at the Framingham movie theater, just sitting down with two of my pals who I will nickname Heinz and Stringbean. It was a lovely Saturday afternoon, and we had gone to see the over-hyped Inception, which was not as much of a mind-fucking movie as the media made it out to be. After being seated in the middle of the theater for about five minutes, right before the movie was about to begin, something smashed against my face and I felt a warm sensation all over me. Feel free to insert jokes here about semen, but it was actually liquid cheese. All over my face and clothes, all over Heinz's clothes, and the rest in Stringbean's hair and clothes. Disgusting.
Now for those of you who know me, you probably think this was a provoked attack. It was not. I said or did nothing but sit and watch the previews. What was my response? I stood up and screamed "Who the fuck threw that?" An audience of horrified spectators sat silently. I looked to the direction that the infamous cheese came from, and saw 10-12 early teenage boys sitting in the corner, looking like they'd seen a ghost. Obviously, they were terrified of what was in store. They knew I knew.
I approached them all and demanded to know who threw it. I wanted revenge. An old lady behind me stood up and in a weird foreign accent, exclaimed "I am getting zee poleese!" I said no no, I want to figure out which little fucker it is and take care of it myself. But with no response, I lost my cool and threw my giant bag of popcorn at the little buggers. After storming out of the theater and throwing the trash barrel in the direction of the scared little boys, I saw the security guards already running in the direction of the theater. Seeing myself as well as Heinz and Stringbean covered in cheese, they asked who it was and proceeded to escort all of the young criminals out of the theater. The theater audience clapped and cheered as the violators were herded towards their doom. They stood in a circle around the security in the hall, heads hung low. When none would answer who threw the cheese, they were all promptly thrown out, including the poor mother of the boy who's birthday it was. She was quite embarrassed and apologetic, but I cared not. I was cheesed. After the three of us cleaned as much yellow gunk off us as we could, we received many free passes for tickets, soda, and popcorn for the future, and went back in to see we only had missed five minutes of the movie. In the end, I won. But I'll never forget the time I got hit in the face with a miniature bucket of cheese.

Banner 18 Is Not Far-Fetched

True, the Celtics aging stars are a year older. Also true is that 10 of the 19 players who appeared in at least one game for the C's last year are gone. And finally, it is sad but true that Kendrick Perkins may miss half (or more) of the upcoming season. But the combination of the revolving free-agency door, as well as the desperate need for size has fueled Danny Ainge to reconstruct a new team for the 2010-2011 season. Thus far, six new players will be on the season-opening roster, not including last year's mid-season addition of Nate Robinson. In with the old, out with the new now defines this Celtics team.

What was the Celtics most pressing need?

At times throughout the season, as well as in the Finals, the Celtics did not have the depth in the paint to rebound competitively. The Lakers exploited the C's lack of size, especially when Sheed got in foul trouble, when Perk was ailing, and Garnett sucking wind. Size is exactly what Ainge brought in. The ten disbanded players from last year averaged 6-6 in size, and a measly 1.55 rebounds per game. The incoming recruits? Led by 7-1 Shaq and 6-11 Jermaine O'Neal, the six imports average 6-8 in height. With the addition of the 6-11 Celtics 2008 draft pick Semih Erden, who spent last year winning a championship in Turkey, the team now has five players 6-10 and over. Even 6-8 PF Luke Harangody will be an intimidating addition, as he averaged 9.4 RPG over his dominant college career. Compare this to last years three and you can already imagine the difference in the rebounding category. The loss of Perkins should be more then overcome by a rotating center combination of the O'Neals. Last year's bigs and wings that were MEANT to support in the rebounding category did exactly the opposite. Sheed hated rebounding, Scalabrine was incapable, and Shelden Williams was horrible. Ainge definitely was successful in achieving the goal of importing size to the Celtics bench.

What about guard depth?

An outstanding problem held over from the days of Sam Cassell-Stephon Marbury-Eddie House-Gabe Pruitt-Tony Allen, Ainge needed to address the lack of quality guard depth behind Rondo and Ray. He will give Marquis Daniels another shot, and the mid-season addition of Nate added a scoring presence off the bench. Ainge then signed former Rocket Von Wafer, who dazzled in a starting role with Houston two seasons ago, and played well in the Euroleague last year for the famed Olympiacos. Finally, he added a stud in 19-year old Avery Bradley via the draft from the Texas Longhorns. ESPN rated Bradley the #1 high school player in the country in 2009, and although the inept Rick Barnes was unable to help Bradley reach his potential, hopefully Doc can lead the youngster to a successful NBA career. All in all, Ainge may not have fully accomplished the objective of strengthening the back-court, but there certainly is potential.

How will losing Perkins hurt the team?

The big men in the NBA that killed the Celtics on the boards last year were Dwight Howard, Andrew Bogut, David Lee, Pau Gasol, and Brook Lopez. For the most part, Perkins kept other centers in check in the scoring category, but the C's were out-rebounded quite a few times. It is safe to say that Chris Bosh will benefit underneath as part of the Miami trio, and Carlos Boozer will be tough underneath for a deep Bulls squad. Before Perkins is back, the Celtics will face Miami Orlando, and Chicago three times, Atlanta and LA twice, and Milwaukee once. Also, they face two early games against Durant and Oklahoma City, they travel to Dallas in early November, and face tough Western Conference opponents like Portland, New Orleans, Denver, and San Antonio in December. But luckily for the C's, some of Jermaine O'Neals best games last year were against the likes of Howard, Bogut, Nowitzki, and Horford. His best game was a loss at Chicago, but they were missing Joakim Noah at the time. Shaq was relatively quiet against Eastern Conference bigs, but continued his dominance in the paint against the likes of Portland, Memphis, Houston, and Phoenix. How the loss of Perkins affects the C's will come down to exploiting matchups. The O'Neals both have opponents they tend to either dominate or falter against, and Doc will have to go with the better of the two on any given night. But Boston certainly has a grueling schedule over the first two months, and will have to continue with their trend of starting hot in order to keep up with Miami, Orlando, Atlanta, and Chicago.

With the waiving of Sheed, who gets the final roster spot?

Although Doc said the possibility of Scalabrine coming back is always on the table, I believe he meant Scal could return in more of an assistant role. Harangody was drafted to take his place. Unless the cash-strapped team can find a way to swing a deal for Rudy Fernandez, they will most likely sign a guard for the league minimum to provide more depth. Rumors have swirled around the likes of Larry Hughes, Brad Miller, Eddie House, Delonte West, Matt Barnes, Josh Howard, and even Kwame Brown. But all have been squashed by either signing elsewhere, or the desire for more money. In the end, the C's will probably make a mid-season move to acquire more guard depth, and settle with Tony Gaffney or a cheap Hughes-type as the final man on the squad.

The offseason isn't over yet, but as NBA rosters are being finalized, it looks as though the Celtics quietly had one of the best offseasons. They have solidified themselves as a 2010-2011 contender, and certainly will lock up one of the top four spots in the Eastern Conference as they make another push towards banner 18.