2010 Heisman Hopefuls

Every year, analysts submit arguments for lists of anywhere from 6-20 players who could compete for the Heisman. Realistically, there are under ten, and usually only about five that actually have a chance. The player is going to come from one of the top two or three teams going into the season, and will be a skill position player. And by skill position, I mean it will be a running back or quarterback. That is how pathetic the selection process has become. Only six times in the Heisman's history has it been awarded to any position other than QB/RB, the last being WR/DB Charles Woodson in 1997. Only three times has a defensive player won the award, and all three played on both sides of the ball. So limiting the list to QB/RB is simply "Phase I" of the process.
"Phase II" of the Heisman selection is narrowing down the possible teams the winner may come from. Only once in the last ten years has a Heisman winner come from a team ranked outside the AP Preseason Top 6. That player was a rare case in Tim Tebow. There has also only been one repeat Heisman winner, which was Archie Griffin in 1974 and 1975. Chances are this feat may never be repeated. So based on the AP Preseason Top 7 Projections, the list of teams that the Heisman winner will come from can be limited to Alabama, Ohio State, Boise State, Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, and USC. Seven of the last eight winners have come from one of those teams, so I would put my money on any of them.

"Phase III" is selecting the heralded list of possible candidates. Sticking with the assumption that the list can be limited to QB's and RB's, the below list are the players on the top 7 teams that fit the bill:

• Andy Dalton, QB - TCU - Dalton led the Horned Frogs to an undefeated season up until a Fiesta Bowl loss to Boise State. He threw for 2756 yards and 23 TDs while only tossing 8 interceptions. A three year starter entering his senior year, Dalton had impressive victories against Utah, BYU, and Clemson in his junior campaign. He has improved his team's win total every year, and has gone 2-1 in bowl games. Dalton will have a lot to prove to be considered a true Heisman candidate, and it all starts with a week 1 matchup against Oregon State. Other notable opponents in 2010 are Baylor, SMU, Utah, Air Force, and BYU.
• Mark Ingram, RB - Alabama - As mentioned, Archie Griffin in the only multiple Heisman winner. In recent years, Tebow, Leinart, Bush, Bradford, McCoy, etc. have all had shots at winning multiple trophies, but all lost out on their second bid or didn't win one at all. Ingram is only a junior, but he as well as Alabama have a huge target on their backs. He will certainly have to improve on his 2009 numbers of 1658 yards and 17 touchdowns, as Heisman voters will compare those numbers as well as his team's performance come voting time.
• Kellen Moore, QB - Boise State - The junior enters his third season as the starting signal caller for one of the nation's most potent offenses, year in and year out. Moore has lost one game in college, a 1-point loss to TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl his freshman year. He avenged the loss with a Fiesta Bowl victory over TCU last year, which capped off an almost statistically perfect season. Moore threw 38 TDs, 3 interceptions, and for 3536 yards. Boise enters their final season in the WAC, moving to the more prominent Mountain West. After feelings of being robbed of a chance to compete as national champion the last two years, Boise should get a shot at the BCS Championship with another undefeated season. The season rides on Moore's back, and if he can put up big numbers and earn a BCS birth, he will certainly be a top 4 Heisman candidate.
• Terrelle Pryor, QB - Ohio State - Pryor has been a household name since his controversial recruitment battle a few years ago. With two seasons under his belt and looking to redeem a mid-season loss to Purdue that cost the Buckeyes a chance at a championship, Pryor will look to lead OSU to glory. Unlike Moore and Dalton, Pryor will only have to put up solid numbers and not turn the ball over to be a Heisman candidate. As the Buckeye's record goes this year, so does Pryor's shot at the Heisman. A BCS Championship birth along with an undefeated season will solidify Pryor's place in the top 4 in 2010, especially if he can improve on his 18 TDs and 11 picks last year.

Texas and Oklahoma don't have the big name candidates at either QB or RB to generate consideration for the list, mainly because of youth and duty sharing. Garrett Gilbert of Texas and Landry Jones are young and lead teams into a "rebuilding year", and Matt Barkley of USC will certainly lose QB battles against Andrew Luck of Stanford and the speedy Jeremiah Masoli of Oregon. In what seems to be a small group of Heisman hopefuls in 2010, one could make arguments for plenty of players, such as QB Case Keenum of Houston, QB Jacory Harris of Miami, QB Jake Locker of Washington, RB Jacquizz Rodgers of Oregon State, QB Ryan Mallett of Arkansas, RB John Clay of Wisconsin, or RB Noel Devine of West Virginia, just to name a few. But when it comes down to wins and losses, as well as carrying their team on their backs to prominence, it is a much safer bet to limit the list to Dalton/Pryor/Moore/Ingram. When the voting concludes and the ballot is revealed on December 11th or 18th, I expect a close vote between Pryor and Ingram, with Terrelle Pryor getting the nod as the second Buckeye QB to take home the hardware in the last 5 years.