Friday, March 12, 2010

Sox Rotation Nation

This year, Red Sox Nation should be 100% confident in the rotation. True, in years past there was speculation of an all-time rotation with multiple 20 games winners and Yankee-killing gems pitched throughout the season. But this year it is for real. There are no question mark pitchers (see Smoltz and Penny) who not only have no American League experience, but are considered "sleepers" IF they succeed. Because we all know 9/10 that IF usually leads to poor performance. Take last years "solid" rotation going into the season. The Red Sox, along with every analyst, believed that although Teixiera and Sabathia went to New York, the depth of the Red Sox rotation would keep them in the pennant hunt. But the speculative "nasty" rotation of Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Wakefield, Penny, Smoltz, and Buchholz turned to dust. Smoltz and Penny were released, and Beckett and Lester had good but not masterful seasons. Wakefield, Dice, and Clay were injury plagued (thanks World Baseball Classic). Tazawa, Bowden, and Byrd were often shelled in their starts, and Masterson was decent but was traded to upgrade the offensively challenged lineup.
2010 is a different story. There is no World Baseball Classic to suck the energy out of the players before the season even starts. There are three arguable number one starters at the top of the rotation in Beckett, Lester, and Lackey. Matsuzaka has had time to rehab, Wakefield time to rest, and Buchholz has another season under his belt. And these six starters are formidable even before taking into account the prior minor league success of Tazawa, which could translate into a successful big league career, or the dynamic pitching of 20 year-old Casey Kelly, whom even Victor Martinez was baffled by his stuff. No, there will be no epic rotation collapse this year (barring injuries). I believe the Red Sox have potentially the best rotation in baseball going into the season. Just take a look at how they stack up against teams with comparable rotations.
The Yankees go into the season with Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettite in the rotation again. But Burnett is a head case, Sabathia will eventually have a heart attack, and Pettite will be 38 in June. Javier Vazquez was plain nasty for the Braves, but who knows what his return to the AL will result in. Phil Hughes was shelled in the playoffs and has yet to pitch 90 innings in a season. And as for depth, who steps in for spot starts? If Joba pitches well out of the pen, they probably won't alter his schedule again. Chan Ho Park? I hope the Red Sox face him at least once. Sergio Mitre? Please, take a look at his career stats, let alone how he pitched last year. Kei Igawa? They wouldn't dare try that again. I just don't see the depth in the Yankee pitching staff. Keep in mind, for the sake of this argument, I am leaving out the offensive aspect (nevermind having the easiest right field deck to aim for in the MLB).
The Rays have a young, filthy bunch in Shields, Garza, Niemann, Price, and Davis. Andy Sonnanstine and Joaquin Benoit can both step in and produce quality starts. But there rotation is missing the veteran element past the front. The bottom three in the rotation have started a combined 62 games in their careers, a far reach from even now spot-starter Wakefield's 421 starts. Time will tell how they hold up, but again they lack the depth and experience of the Red Sox rotation. And we all know that Price belongs in the pen.
The Angels lost Lackey. They replaced him with Joel Piniero. The combination of Santana, Saunders, Kazmir, and Weaver has little probability of four parallel good seasons. Weaver is consistant, but never consistantly dominant. Santana has shown flashes of greatness, but it never sticks. Saunders didn't really come close to replicating his 2008 success, and Kazmir really only pitched well in his 6 starts with the Angels last year. After those five, there is formidable minor league pitching, but no set in stone sixth or seventh plug. Take into account for the sake of degrading the team that they have lost much of their offense, and have only signed Hideki Matsui to stop the bleeding. That fact speaks for itself.
The Phillies have the twin H's in Halladay and Hamels at the top of their rotation. After that, Happ is too unpredictable, Jamie Moyer must be 80 by now, and third-starter Joe Blanton has been mediocre at best since the '07 season. And depth is no longer existent in this organization, mainly because of trades and the "win now" mentality.
I am not being completely bias and saying the Red Sox have the most amazing rotation, far and beyond any other team. There are many teams, including the Diamondbacks, Braves, White Sox, Tigers, Reds, Dodgers, Brewers, Twins, Mariners, Giants, Cardinals, and Rangers, that are infused with any combination of youth, experience, depth, potential, and the overall ability to succeed. But none have the lethal combination of all that attributes like the Red Sox rotation. Attrition will not be a factor in this years squad. And the scary part for the rest of the league? This rotation could stick for quite a few years to come.

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