Belichick is Oh-fer with Tight-Ends

Title: 'Belichick is Oh-fer With Tight-Ends'
Date: March 5, 2010

Make no mistake about it, since the Patriots “traded” a first-round pick to the Jets for Bill Belichick ten years ago, he has brought more success to the franchise than their prior 41 years of combined existence. And when it comes to player evaluation, management, and overall judgment, Belichick belongs grouped with the best of the NFL head coach crop. But even with his three and a half decades of NFL experience stemming back to the days of the mid-70's Baltimore Colts, Belichick cannot seem to land a consistently decent, fan-appreciated, dual-threat pass catching and run blocking tight-end.
Since the release of Patriots Hall-of-Famer Ben Coates in 1999, the Patriots have been unable to draft, sign, or stumble upon a tight-end with All-Pro capabilities. Even after selecting tight-ends in the first round twice in the 2000's, none have panned out to be the mainstays that Belichick and company had hoped them to be. With the release of veteran Chris Baker, and the unlikeliness of the former 32nd overall pick in 2004 Ben Watson being resigned, the Pats are now left with no tight-ends with any NFL experience. Coming in a year when the most notable unrestricted free-agent tight-ends are the likes of the incumbent Randy McMichael, Alge Crumpler, or L.J. Smith, Patriot nation has reason to worry about what the future holds at the end of their offensive line. Stud draft-eligible tight-ends such as Aaron Hernandez of Florida and Jermaine Gresham of Oklahoma may be off the board by pick 22, and even if one of them fell into the Patriots lap, rookie tight-ends are extremely unpredictable and usually take more than just one or two seasons to become a full-time fixture in an premier offense.
One has to wonder where the blame lies for the inability to land an offensive-staple tight-end. Even as a fan with a devoted passion and love for the franchise, one can only suggest that Belichick may not deem the position as an important piece of the puzzle as much as other teams have. Some may also believe that he cannot successfully evaluate tight-end talent, backed up by the constant drafting and releasing of tight-ends over the last ten years. Judging by the Patriots pertinent history of drafting eight tight-ends from 2000-2006, and the fact that none of those eight are currently with the team, this notion of the lack of talent-evaluating ability could be correct. The revolving door of veteran tight-ends coming through New England in the 2000's also is evidence of this notion. Bottom-of-the-barrel and mediocre players such as Rod Rutledge, Jermaine Wiggins, Christian Fauria, Jed Weaver, Kyle Brady, Marcus Pollard, and Chris Baker have come and go, and with no tight-ends selected to the Pro-Bowl since Coates in the 1999 season, the Patriots obviously have been incapable of finding a consistent tight-end through any means of acquisition.
Tight-end free agent signings are often a means of filling out a roster, and the Patriots have signed a plethora of these players to both attempt to contribute to the offense and mentor their drafted hopefuls. But in regards to the excuse that none of Belichick's draftees have panned out quite as Patriot nation had hoped, there is simply no excuse as to why such poor selections have been made. Hindsight is 20/20, but looking at the statistics of Belichick's eight tight-end selections, a red light goes off...or maybe it's a white flag. Below are the player statistics and draft information of Belichick's tight-end picks as Patriots head coach:

Player College Year Drafted Games Receptions Yards TD Result
Dave Stachelski Boise St. 2000 Rd 5, Pk 141 0 0 0 0 TC Cut '00
Jabari Holloway Notre Dame 2001 Rd 4, Pk 119 0 0 0 0 Released '02
Arther Love SC St. 2001 Rd 6, Pk 180 0 0 0 0 Released '02
Daniel Graham Colorado 2002 Rd 1, Pk 21 63 120 1393 17 Left as UFA '07
Ben Watson Georgia 2004 Rd 1, Pk 32 72 267 2102 20 Current UFA
Andy Stokes William Penn 2005 Rd 7, Pk 255 0 0 0 0 TC Cut '05
David Thomas Texas 2006 Rd 3, Pk 86 32 21 271 1 Traded '09
Garrett Mills Tulsa 2006 Rd 4, Pk 106 0 0 0 0 Released '07
TOTALS --- --- Pick 118 167 408 3766 38 ---

There are dozens of points that possibly could be made in favor of the tight-ends. But when it comes down to the simple facts, Belichick's hand-picked tight-ends have not lived nearly up to expectations. Tom Brady has averaged 33 pass attempts per game since 2000, yet New England-drafted tight-ends (the three that actually made the team) have averaged a little more then two receptions per game, and a mere 22 yards per game. This group has also averaged about 0.23 touchdowns per game, even taking into account the record setting 589-point season in 2007, led by Brady's 50 regular season touchdown passes. When comparing this to the single game averages over the last decade from seven notable tight-ends that Belichik passed on drafting, the numbers speak for themselves:

Player Year Drafted Team Rec./Game YPG TD/Game Patriots Prior Pick
Dallas Clark 2003 Rd 1, Pk 24 Colts 3.6 43 0.42 Ty Warren, DT
Jason Witten 2003 Rd 3, Pk 69 Cowboys 4.7 54 0.24 Bethel Johnson, WR
Antonio Gates 2003 Undrafted Chargers 4.4 57 0.54 Ethan Kelly, DT
Chris Cooley 2004 Rd 3, Pk 81 Redskins 3.9 44 0.34 Marquise Hill, DE
Tony Scheffler 2006 Rd 2, Pk 61 Broncos 2.4 33 0.25 Chad Jackson, WR
Owen Daniels 2006 Rd 4, Pk 98 Texans 3.8 46 0.28 David Thomas, TE
Dustin Keller 2008 Rd 1, Pk 30 Jets 2.9 33 0.17 Jerrod Mayo, LB
TOTALS --- Pick 52 --- 3.7 44 0.32 ---

In Belichick's defense, picks such as Ty Warren and Jerrod Mayo turned out for the best. And yes, it does make a huge difference when your quarterback is Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, or Matt Schaub, all of whom lead pass-happy offensive attacks. Also true is the fact that tight-ends are most susceptible to being open with a more powerful offensive supporting cast, such as having LaDainian Tomlinson or Clinton Portis in the backfield. But Tom Brady is arguably the best quarterback in the game, and since the 2001 season has fallen out of the top ten in passing attempts for that season only once. In fact, in the eight seasons Brady played 15-plus regular season games, he has attempted over 500 passes six times, and has thrown 4218 passes in his ten NFL seasons (two of which he played in only one game).
To put these numbers into perspective, it is best to look at other quarterbacks who started the vast majority of their teams' games in the last decade. The list is extremely exclusive, including Donovan McNabb, Kurt Warner, Matt Hasselbeck, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Brad Johnson, and Kerry Collins. All but Brees and Warner have played in more games than Brady in an equal amount of time (by only a few), yet Brady has thrown more passes in an equal span then Brees, McNabb, Warner, Hasselbeck, Collins, and Johnson. To conclude the quarterback discrepancy debate, Brady was one of the most prolific passing quarterbacks of the decade, which really isn't overwhelming news for any football fan.
When it comes to the opinion of Belichick's drafting and signing of tight-ends, arguments can be made both ways. But the numbers never lie, and in this case, they certainly point to the fact that the Patriots have struck out at the tight-end position over the course of the last decade. Regardless of who is at fault, if anyone, for these feeble results, it is safe to say that until the Patriots pony-up a package for a veteran or draft a stud, Tom Brady will not have had prolific, dominating tight-end in his illustrious career. And at the end of the day, Bill Belichick has no one to blame for this but himself.