April 4th the 2010 Red Sox open their season at home against the Yankees on nationally televised Sunday Night Baseball. Another season brings a renewed feeling of hope, especially facing the defending World Champions. Baseball fans around the country will see recognizable cogs that contributed to the success over the last decade for the two teams such as Josh Beckett, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, and Jorge Posada. But both teams also have a large crop of new starters that will help determine which of these two teams will take the American League East crown. Below are the most notable new acquisitions by the Yankees and Red Sox, both full time starters and platoon players, and my reasoning and predictions on how they will contribute to their new teams. So if you are only a casual baseball fan, study up to try and save face when someone asks what you think about Tug Hulett, Bill Hall, Curtis Granderson, or Randy Winn...
Yankee Notable Acquisitions
- Curtis Granderson, CF, #14 - Granderson is a six-year ex-Tiger outfielder with a good combination of speed and power at the plate. He hit a career-high 30 home runs to go with his 20 stolen bases in 160 games last year. He strikes out a ton, and was moved up and down the order from leadoff all the way to ninth by Jim Leyland in Detroit. As only the sixth member of the 20-20-20 club in baseball (with the likes of Willy Mays and George Brett), he has the ability to be an excellent leadoff hitter in the stacked Yankee lineup if he can get on base. But his .327 on base percentage in 2009 was the lowest of career, as well as his .249 batting average. But Derek Jeter will stay in the cleanup role for now, and Granderson will probably take advantage of the short right field deck at Yankee stadium and utilize his lefty power in the three hole. Time will tell if he can pick up his average, and if he does, he is another scary element to the already dynamic Yankee lineup. And Granderson will certainly be seeing plenty of hittable pitches.
Projected Line: .260 BA, 115 R, 32 HR, 90 RBI, 15 SB
- Randy Winn, LF, #22 - Winn is 35 years old and his numbers plummeted last year. Replacing Johnny Damon in left field won't be at all difficult with his glove, but at the plate is a different story. Winn will most likely platoon with youngster Brett Gardner and probably be one of Girardi's first off the bench, but not too much is expected from Winn except his veteran presence and leadership. Winn should be able to hit around his career BA of .286, but no one is expecting him to hit more than ten HRs or contribute with a significant number of RBIs. He will hit at or near the bottom of the lineup, but is playing in a better setting hitting-wise then San Francisco's AT&T Park. The jury is out on how he will contribute, as he could be anywhere from a complete flop and release candidate to a solidly contributing veteran.
Projected Line: .275 BA, 70 R, 6 HR, 47 RBI, 16 SB
- Nick Johnson, 1B/DH, #26 - Johnson returns to the Bronx after a seven-year hiatus to DH and be Teixiera's backup at first. His last good season at the plate dates back to 2006, but batting lefty at Yankee stadium and being surrounded by All-Star caliber hitters, he could return to a 20 HR, 80 RBI player batting in the two spot. He is a tremendous glove off the bench, and with a weakening quality of designated hitters in the American League, he could be in line for his first All-Star appearance this year.
Projected Line: .280 BA, 80 R, 21 HR, 77 RBI, 2 SB
- Javier Vazquez, SP, #31 - Also returning to New York after six years with three other teams, Vazquez will be looking to convert his success with the Braves into being an above average number three starter behind Sabathia and Burnett. True, Javy won 14 games and struck out 150 in his lone season with the Yankees in 2004, but he finished a horrific second half of the season with a 4.91 ERA and was shelled in the playoffs, allowing the Red Sox to make the most historic World Series run in the history of the sport. Vazquez will be 34 in July, and not counting his 2007 season with the White Sox, he has pitched poorly in the American League to date. He will strike out around 200 batters, but history suggests that his ERA will shoot up one to 1.5 points from last years career-low of 2.87. Vazquez will receive the best run support of his career, but at the expense of his individual statistics. The bottom line is that he will win games, and although they may not be pretty, he probably is satisfied with sacrificing personal accomplishment for a World Series shot.
Projected Line: 32 GS, 16-9 WL, 208 K, 28 HRA, 4.04 ERA
Red Sox Notable Acquisitions
- Adrian Beltre, 3B, #29 - Beltre's main contribution with this team will be his glove. As a hot corner upgrade over Lowell, Beltre will contribute to the defensive philosophy that Theo Epstein has instill in the ball club. As for his bat, no one really knows what purpose he will serve. Could he post the .334-48-121 line he put up in 2004 with the Dodgers? Certainly not. But excluding last year's injury marred season, Beltre certainly hits better in contract years, and this could be one of them. In his best season with Seattle two seasons ago, Beltre hit .276 with 26 dingers and 99 RBIs. Fenway is a better hitter's park then Safeco Field, and if Beltre can play a full season hitting seventh in the lineup, his Gold Glove fielding should be a key cog to this team's success.
Projected Line: .275 BA, 65 R, 22 HR, 74 RBI, 9 SB
- Bill Hall, 2B/3B/OF, #22 - Billy-boy peaked in 2006 with Milwaukee, posting a .270-35-85 line as the primary shortstop for the Brew Crew. It has all been downhill since, leading to his release last season and picking up right where he left off with Seattle. His Mendoza-line batting average and huge strikeout rate would be quite the turn-off, but Hall will be utilized only as a utility player this year. He is the 2010 version of Alex Cora, but a poor man's version. He can't run, he can't hit, but he flashes the glove and will be either a late inning option off the bench or a solid contributor in Pawtucket this year.
Projected Line: .215 BA, 31 R, 8 HR, 22 RBI, 5 SB
- Mike Cameron, CF, #23 - Again, a defensive signing, much to the chagrin of Ellsbury, Cameron will man center field and bat eighth for the Sox. This is Cameron's seventh team in 15 years, but he has been one of the most consistent players in baseball in that time. Almost every season of his career is on par with his season average, and with no apparent sign of decline, he should field with excellence and have an arm unseen in center at Fenway in a long time. His upside far outweighs the possible negatives, and even at 37 years young he should certainly be one of the best eight-spot hitters in baseball. He will have ample opportunity to solidify the bottom of the lineup, and could rise over the course of the season if others falter. But if he doesn't succeed, he will be chased out of Boston quickly, primarily because he is black ;) .
Projected Line: .250 BA, 75 R, 23 HR, 76 RBI, 11 SB
- Jeremy Hermida, RF, #32 - The Marlins #1 overall draft pick in 2002 has yet to live up to his lofty expectations, but Theo acquired him to be the fourth outfielder on this squad. Hermida is everything a manager could want out his of first off the bench. He is only 26, bats lefty, has decent power, and is very versatile. With JD Drew's injury history and Mike Cameron's age, it is safe to say Hermida will see a good amount of playing time. He is a big upgrade over Rocco Baldelli, and not too many Sox fans would be let down if (and when) he starts over an injured JD Drew.
Projected Line: .260 BA, 40 R, 12 HR, 45 RBI, 3 SB
- Marco Scutaro, SS, #16 - Sox fans and front office alike are hoping Scutaro can become what the franchise has lacked since Nomar: a consistent, every day shortstop who lasts more than one year. Just like Cameron, Scutaro can flash the leather and is on-par with his average season batting line every year. Reports out of spring training are that him and Pedroia have a nice middle infield flow already, and by hitting in the nine spot, Marco would have to be a complete bust to not meet his mediocre expectations. He is familiar with Fenway from his past two years with Toronto, and with his two year contract with a third year mutual option, he will have both the time and comfort of adjusting to being the Red Sox new starting shortstop. And although Scutaro is 34, every season of his career he has showed improvement.
Projected Line: .280 BA, 90 R, 10 HR, 50 RBI, 12 SB
- John Lackey, SP, #40 - Lackey will be spending his first year out of Anaheim in a place he has pitched extremely well in the past. Fenway has almost always been friendly to Lackey, who only two years ago took a no hitter into the ninth against the Sox. He is probably the best middle of the rotation starter in the game, and should find comfort in moving from his star-pitcher status on the Angels to being buried in the excellent depth of the Red Sox rotation. Lackey is once again healthy and should make 28-32 starts, winning at least half. His half-decade of consistency and intensity in the American League made him one of the most valuable commodities in free agency this year, and could be the difference for this years Sox team. He is a young veteran with an intimidating physical presence on the mound, and will certainly be a staple in what could be the best rotation in baseball this year.
Projected Line: 31 GS, 16-7 WL, 165 K, 17 HRA, 3.77 ERA
Thus concludes this years Red Sox/Yankee offseason haul. Time will tell both how these predictions pan out, but it is safe to say that this group of players will only fuel the fiery rivalry between these two teams.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Friday, March 12, 2010
Sox Rotation Nation
This year, Red Sox Nation should be 100% confident in the rotation. True, in years past there was speculation of an all-time rotation with multiple 20 games winners and Yankee-killing gems pitched throughout the season. But this year it is for real. There are no question mark pitchers (see Smoltz and Penny) who not only have no American League experience, but are considered "sleepers" IF they succeed. Because we all know 9/10 that IF usually leads to poor performance. Take last years "solid" rotation going into the season. The Red Sox, along with every analyst, believed that although Teixiera and Sabathia went to New York, the depth of the Red Sox rotation would keep them in the pennant hunt. But the speculative "nasty" rotation of Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Wakefield, Penny, Smoltz, and Buchholz turned to dust. Smoltz and Penny were released, and Beckett and Lester had good but not masterful seasons. Wakefield, Dice, and Clay were injury plagued (thanks World Baseball Classic). Tazawa, Bowden, and Byrd were often shelled in their starts, and Masterson was decent but was traded to upgrade the offensively challenged lineup.
2010 is a different story. There is no World Baseball Classic to suck the energy out of the players before the season even starts. There are three arguable number one starters at the top of the rotation in Beckett, Lester, and Lackey. Matsuzaka has had time to rehab, Wakefield time to rest, and Buchholz has another season under his belt. And these six starters are formidable even before taking into account the prior minor league success of Tazawa, which could translate into a successful big league career, or the dynamic pitching of 20 year-old Casey Kelly, whom even Victor Martinez was baffled by his stuff. No, there will be no epic rotation collapse this year (barring injuries). I believe the Red Sox have potentially the best rotation in baseball going into the season. Just take a look at how they stack up against teams with comparable rotations.
The Yankees go into the season with Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettite in the rotation again. But Burnett is a head case, Sabathia will eventually have a heart attack, and Pettite will be 38 in June. Javier Vazquez was plain nasty for the Braves, but who knows what his return to the AL will result in. Phil Hughes was shelled in the playoffs and has yet to pitch 90 innings in a season. And as for depth, who steps in for spot starts? If Joba pitches well out of the pen, they probably won't alter his schedule again. Chan Ho Park? I hope the Red Sox face him at least once. Sergio Mitre? Please, take a look at his career stats, let alone how he pitched last year. Kei Igawa? They wouldn't dare try that again. I just don't see the depth in the Yankee pitching staff. Keep in mind, for the sake of this argument, I am leaving out the offensive aspect (nevermind having the easiest right field deck to aim for in the MLB).
The Rays have a young, filthy bunch in Shields, Garza, Niemann, Price, and Davis. Andy Sonnanstine and Joaquin Benoit can both step in and produce quality starts. But there rotation is missing the veteran element past the front. The bottom three in the rotation have started a combined 62 games in their careers, a far reach from even now spot-starter Wakefield's 421 starts. Time will tell how they hold up, but again they lack the depth and experience of the Red Sox rotation. And we all know that Price belongs in the pen.
The Angels lost Lackey. They replaced him with Joel Piniero. The combination of Santana, Saunders, Kazmir, and Weaver has little probability of four parallel good seasons. Weaver is consistant, but never consistantly dominant. Santana has shown flashes of greatness, but it never sticks. Saunders didn't really come close to replicating his 2008 success, and Kazmir really only pitched well in his 6 starts with the Angels last year. After those five, there is formidable minor league pitching, but no set in stone sixth or seventh plug. Take into account for the sake of degrading the team that they have lost much of their offense, and have only signed Hideki Matsui to stop the bleeding. That fact speaks for itself.
The Phillies have the twin H's in Halladay and Hamels at the top of their rotation. After that, Happ is too unpredictable, Jamie Moyer must be 80 by now, and third-starter Joe Blanton has been mediocre at best since the '07 season. And depth is no longer existent in this organization, mainly because of trades and the "win now" mentality.
I am not being completely bias and saying the Red Sox have the most amazing rotation, far and beyond any other team. There are many teams, including the Diamondbacks, Braves, White Sox, Tigers, Reds, Dodgers, Brewers, Twins, Mariners, Giants, Cardinals, and Rangers, that are infused with any combination of youth, experience, depth, potential, and the overall ability to succeed. But none have the lethal combination of all that attributes like the Red Sox rotation. Attrition will not be a factor in this years squad. And the scary part for the rest of the league? This rotation could stick for quite a few years to come.
2010 is a different story. There is no World Baseball Classic to suck the energy out of the players before the season even starts. There are three arguable number one starters at the top of the rotation in Beckett, Lester, and Lackey. Matsuzaka has had time to rehab, Wakefield time to rest, and Buchholz has another season under his belt. And these six starters are formidable even before taking into account the prior minor league success of Tazawa, which could translate into a successful big league career, or the dynamic pitching of 20 year-old Casey Kelly, whom even Victor Martinez was baffled by his stuff. No, there will be no epic rotation collapse this year (barring injuries). I believe the Red Sox have potentially the best rotation in baseball going into the season. Just take a look at how they stack up against teams with comparable rotations.
The Yankees go into the season with Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettite in the rotation again. But Burnett is a head case, Sabathia will eventually have a heart attack, and Pettite will be 38 in June. Javier Vazquez was plain nasty for the Braves, but who knows what his return to the AL will result in. Phil Hughes was shelled in the playoffs and has yet to pitch 90 innings in a season. And as for depth, who steps in for spot starts? If Joba pitches well out of the pen, they probably won't alter his schedule again. Chan Ho Park? I hope the Red Sox face him at least once. Sergio Mitre? Please, take a look at his career stats, let alone how he pitched last year. Kei Igawa? They wouldn't dare try that again. I just don't see the depth in the Yankee pitching staff. Keep in mind, for the sake of this argument, I am leaving out the offensive aspect (nevermind having the easiest right field deck to aim for in the MLB).
The Rays have a young, filthy bunch in Shields, Garza, Niemann, Price, and Davis. Andy Sonnanstine and Joaquin Benoit can both step in and produce quality starts. But there rotation is missing the veteran element past the front. The bottom three in the rotation have started a combined 62 games in their careers, a far reach from even now spot-starter Wakefield's 421 starts. Time will tell how they hold up, but again they lack the depth and experience of the Red Sox rotation. And we all know that Price belongs in the pen.
The Angels lost Lackey. They replaced him with Joel Piniero. The combination of Santana, Saunders, Kazmir, and Weaver has little probability of four parallel good seasons. Weaver is consistant, but never consistantly dominant. Santana has shown flashes of greatness, but it never sticks. Saunders didn't really come close to replicating his 2008 success, and Kazmir really only pitched well in his 6 starts with the Angels last year. After those five, there is formidable minor league pitching, but no set in stone sixth or seventh plug. Take into account for the sake of degrading the team that they have lost much of their offense, and have only signed Hideki Matsui to stop the bleeding. That fact speaks for itself.
The Phillies have the twin H's in Halladay and Hamels at the top of their rotation. After that, Happ is too unpredictable, Jamie Moyer must be 80 by now, and third-starter Joe Blanton has been mediocre at best since the '07 season. And depth is no longer existent in this organization, mainly because of trades and the "win now" mentality.
I am not being completely bias and saying the Red Sox have the most amazing rotation, far and beyond any other team. There are many teams, including the Diamondbacks, Braves, White Sox, Tigers, Reds, Dodgers, Brewers, Twins, Mariners, Giants, Cardinals, and Rangers, that are infused with any combination of youth, experience, depth, potential, and the overall ability to succeed. But none have the lethal combination of all that attributes like the Red Sox rotation. Attrition will not be a factor in this years squad. And the scary part for the rest of the league? This rotation could stick for quite a few years to come.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Baseball Time
It is obviously very exciting that the MLB regular season is right around the corner. But looking through all of my projects I have wasted time with over the past few years, I came across an interesting piece of research. I looked through all of the trades in the ten year span of 1998-2008 and made a list of them all. I then ranked them by not how good or bad they were at the time, but how poorly the trade has played out in hindsight to this point. It is actually pretty funny to see how piss-poor some of these trades were, but again, hindsight is 20/20. So have a looksie.
Top 25 Worst Trades of the Last Decade (1998-2008)
1. Expos trade Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, and Lee Stevens to Indians for Bartolo Colon (June 2002)
2. Mets trade Scott Kazmir and Jose Diaz to Tampa for Victor Zambrano and Bartolome Fortunato (July 2004)
3. Giants trade Boof Bonser, Joe Nathan, and Fransisco Liriano to Twins for A.J. Pierzynski (Nov 2003)
4. Rangers trade Alfonso Soriano to Nationals for Brad Wilkerson, Armando Galarraga, and Terrmel Sledge (Dec 2005)
5. Red Sox trade David Murphy, Kason Gabbard, and Engel Beltre to Rangers for Eric Gagne (July 2007)
6. Phillies trade Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle to Yankees for minor leaguers C.J. Henry, Matt Smith, Jesus Sanchez, and Carlos Monasterios (July 2006)
7. Marlins trade Derrek Lee to Cubs for Hee Seop Choi and minor leaguer Mike Nannini (Nov 2003)
8. Pirates trade Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton to Cubs for Bobby Hill, Jose Hernandez, and Matt Bruback (July 2003)
9. White Sox trade Carlos Lee to Brewers for Scott Podsednik, Luis Vizcaino, and minor leaguer Travis Hinton (Dec 2004)
10. Mets trade Jason Isringhausen to A’s for Billy Taylor (July 1999)
11. Rangers trade Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez, and Terrmel Sledge to Padres for Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka, and minor leaguer Billy Killian (Jan 2006)
12. Pirates trade Jason Schmidt and John Vander Wal to Giants for Armando Rios and Ryan Vogelsong (July 2001)
13. Astros trade Carlos Guillen, Freddy Garcia, and John Halama to Mariners for Randy Johnson (July 1998)
14. Indians trade David Justice to the Yankees for Ricky Ledee (June 2000)
15. Mets trade Bobby Jones, Jason Bay, and Josh Reynolds to Padres for Steve Reed and Jason Middlebrook (July 2002)
16. Tampa Bay trades Randy Winn to Mariners for manager Lou Piniella and minor leaguer Antonio Perez (Oct 2002)
17. Dodgers trade Paul Konerko and Dennys Reyes to Reds for Jeff Shaw (July 1998)
18. A’s trade Aaron Harang, Joe Valentine, and Jeff Bruksch to Reds for Jose Guillen (July 2003)
19. Indians trade Ryan Church and Maicer Izturis to Expos for Scott Stewart (Jan 2004)
20. Indians trade Steve Karsay and Steve Reed to Braves for John Rocker and minor leaguer Troy Cameron (June 2001)
21. Rangers trade Travis Hafner and Aaron Myette to Indians for Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese (Dec 2002)
22. Astros trade Jason Hirsh, Willy Tavares, and Taylor Buchholz to Rockies for Jason Jennings and Miguel Asencio (Dec 2006)
23. Diamondbacks trade Carlos Quentin to White Sox for Chris Carter (Dec 2007)
24. Blue Jays trade Michael Young and minor leaguer Darwin Cubillan to the Rangers for Esteban Loaiza (July 2000)
25. Reds trade Felipe Lopez, Austin Kearns, and Ryan Wagner to Nationals for Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, Brendan Harris, and minor leaguer Daryl Thompson (July 2006)
Other Notables:
Cubs trade Jon Garland to White Sox for Matt Karchner (July 1998)
Expos trade Cliff Floyd to Red Sox for Seung Song and Sun-Woo Kim (July 2002)
Royals trade Johnny Damon to A’s for Roberto Hernandez (Jan 2001)
- A good note to end on is to commend the Mets for topping this list with not one or two, but three of the worst moves in that ten year span. But one can only assume they will turn their luck around with the big signings this offseason of Gary Matthews Jr., Rod Barajas, and Kelvim Escobar. (Sarcasm)
Saturday, March 6, 2010
So Anquan Wasn't Worth It?
I hate to do all this Patriots bashing, but one has to wonder what they are doing standing pat this off-season (no pun intended). So far the Patriots have simply resigned their own players, which is good news all around, but doesn't necessarily improve the 2009 team that went 10-6. They have glaring needs in the secondary, at linebacker, on the defensive line, at tight end, and even at their skills positions. Sure, they helped keep their mediocre-at-best secondary intact by locking up Leigh Bodden, and secured one of the best interior d-lineman in the game in Vince Wilfork, but these signings do not address the huge holes that were exposed in a blowout playoff loss to Baltimore. The Patriots need to boost their pass rushing, no offense to Tully Banta-Cain. They need a more solid veteran presence in their secondary while youngsters Darius Butler, Patrick Chung, Brandon Meriweather, and Terrence Wheatley HOPEFULLY develop into viable starters. Adalius Thomas seemingly doesn't want to play football anymore, and Pierre Woods, Eric Alexander, and Gary Guyton are certainly not every down linebackers right now. And that's just the defense.
Offensively, the Patriots deficiencies show how far they are from being the 2007 juggernaut they once were. Brady is injury-plagued and needs a solid backfield to help establish the air game. Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor, and Laurence Maroney all showed flashes of greatness last season, but none were consistent, and Maroney just can't hold onto the ball. The offensive line has been solid, and stays completely intact for the time being. The Patriots would be last in the league in tight end talent if the season started today, simply because they don't have one. But finally we come to the wide receiver situation. It was common knowledge that there would be a plethora of young, big-time talent available via free agency and trade this off-season at the wide-out position. Free agents such as Antonio Bryant, Chris Chambers, Antwan Randle El, Kevin Walter, Nate Burleson, Derek Mason, and Kassim Osgood were all available to be had without penalty, yet the Patriots have sat back and watched. Brandon Marshall seems to be on the outs from Denver to anywhere but New England, and Miles Austin and Vincent Jackson can be at least made offers as restricted free agents. And finally we come to the cream of the crop: Anquan Boldin. Long rumored to be a future Patriot, the Ravens traded a third and fourth round pick in exchange for Boldin and a fifth-rounder. The Ravens pick lower in both of those rounds than the Patriots. The Patriots have a better quarterback to throw to Boldin than the Ravens. The Patriots have a glaring need for a physical presence at receiver, just as the Ravens did. But the Patriots let the Ravens beat them out for Boldin. In the meantime, the WR-lacking Ravens signed Donte Stallworth to bolster their already extremely talented team.
I'm going to take the situation the Patriots are facing this season at WR a step further than most people. I think the Patriots are royally screwed. Wes Welker isn't walking through that door anytime soon. Julian Edelman is NOT Wes Welker (which seems to be a common misperception, simply because he is small and white). Randy Moss is up to his antics again, and isn't getting any younger. David Patten isn't going to catch 50 passes, and who knows if Brandon Tate will ever play. And Sam Aiken simply blows. So yes, the Patriots are a shell of the 2007 team stocked with pass-catching talent.
Speculation is the Patriots could have landed Boldin with one of their THREE second round picks, or even match the Ravens deal because the Patriots pick higher. And then there was the contract extension issue, where Boldin got $28 million for a 4 year extension as part of conditions of the trade. The Patriots didn't want to "disrespect" Welker by paying him less than half of what Boldin makes, but come on, this is a business and the bigger names just get paid more. You don't use Terry-Francona type tactics when trying to improve your football team. The Patriots should have made a simple move that would have given them a lethal trio of WRs, but Belichick or the Krafts decided to stand pat with their current mediocracy.
Finally, we come to an extremely baffling set of facts. Take a look at the players Belichick has WASTED second round and third round picks over the past decade and it offers further proof of the extreme lack of common sense on behalf of the Patriots (by year and pick order, and not including players who have yet to seen valid enough playing time). Chad Jackson, Ellis Hobbs, Gus Scott, Eugene Wilson, Bethel Johnson, and Brock Williams, none of whom are still with the team. And that is just the list of inconsistant, poorly performing picks. In fact, the Patriots probably would trade any of their second or third round picks of the past ten years for Boldin at this point, with Sebastian Volmer and Matt Light possibly excluded. So what are they waiting around for? Why haven't they made a splash? Because at this rate, the Patriots will be looking at the 2020s for their next Super Bowl team....
Offensively, the Patriots deficiencies show how far they are from being the 2007 juggernaut they once were. Brady is injury-plagued and needs a solid backfield to help establish the air game. Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor, and Laurence Maroney all showed flashes of greatness last season, but none were consistent, and Maroney just can't hold onto the ball. The offensive line has been solid, and stays completely intact for the time being. The Patriots would be last in the league in tight end talent if the season started today, simply because they don't have one. But finally we come to the wide receiver situation. It was common knowledge that there would be a plethora of young, big-time talent available via free agency and trade this off-season at the wide-out position. Free agents such as Antonio Bryant, Chris Chambers, Antwan Randle El, Kevin Walter, Nate Burleson, Derek Mason, and Kassim Osgood were all available to be had without penalty, yet the Patriots have sat back and watched. Brandon Marshall seems to be on the outs from Denver to anywhere but New England, and Miles Austin and Vincent Jackson can be at least made offers as restricted free agents. And finally we come to the cream of the crop: Anquan Boldin. Long rumored to be a future Patriot, the Ravens traded a third and fourth round pick in exchange for Boldin and a fifth-rounder. The Ravens pick lower in both of those rounds than the Patriots. The Patriots have a better quarterback to throw to Boldin than the Ravens. The Patriots have a glaring need for a physical presence at receiver, just as the Ravens did. But the Patriots let the Ravens beat them out for Boldin. In the meantime, the WR-lacking Ravens signed Donte Stallworth to bolster their already extremely talented team.
I'm going to take the situation the Patriots are facing this season at WR a step further than most people. I think the Patriots are royally screwed. Wes Welker isn't walking through that door anytime soon. Julian Edelman is NOT Wes Welker (which seems to be a common misperception, simply because he is small and white). Randy Moss is up to his antics again, and isn't getting any younger. David Patten isn't going to catch 50 passes, and who knows if Brandon Tate will ever play. And Sam Aiken simply blows. So yes, the Patriots are a shell of the 2007 team stocked with pass-catching talent.
Speculation is the Patriots could have landed Boldin with one of their THREE second round picks, or even match the Ravens deal because the Patriots pick higher. And then there was the contract extension issue, where Boldin got $28 million for a 4 year extension as part of conditions of the trade. The Patriots didn't want to "disrespect" Welker by paying him less than half of what Boldin makes, but come on, this is a business and the bigger names just get paid more. You don't use Terry-Francona type tactics when trying to improve your football team. The Patriots should have made a simple move that would have given them a lethal trio of WRs, but Belichick or the Krafts decided to stand pat with their current mediocracy.
Finally, we come to an extremely baffling set of facts. Take a look at the players Belichick has WASTED second round and third round picks over the past decade and it offers further proof of the extreme lack of common sense on behalf of the Patriots (by year and pick order, and not including players who have yet to seen valid enough playing time). Chad Jackson, Ellis Hobbs, Gus Scott, Eugene Wilson, Bethel Johnson, and Brock Williams, none of whom are still with the team. And that is just the list of inconsistant, poorly performing picks. In fact, the Patriots probably would trade any of their second or third round picks of the past ten years for Boldin at this point, with Sebastian Volmer and Matt Light possibly excluded. So what are they waiting around for? Why haven't they made a splash? Because at this rate, the Patriots will be looking at the 2020s for their next Super Bowl team....
Friday, March 5, 2010
Belichick is Oh-fer with Tight-Ends
Title: 'Belichick is Oh-fer With Tight-Ends'
Date: March 5, 2010
Make no mistake about it, since the Patriots “traded” a first-round pick to the Jets for Bill Belichick ten years ago, he has brought more success to the franchise than their prior 41 years of combined existence. And when it comes to player evaluation, management, and overall judgment, Belichick belongs grouped with the best of the NFL head coach crop. But even with his three and a half decades of NFL experience stemming back to the days of the mid-70's Baltimore Colts, Belichick cannot seem to land a consistently decent, fan-appreciated, dual-threat pass catching and run blocking tight-end.
Since the release of Patriots Hall-of-Famer Ben Coates in 1999, the Patriots have been unable to draft, sign, or stumble upon a tight-end with All-Pro capabilities. Even after selecting tight-ends in the first round twice in the 2000's, none have panned out to be the mainstays that Belichick and company had hoped them to be. With the release of veteran Chris Baker, and the unlikeliness of the former 32nd overall pick in 2004 Ben Watson being resigned, the Pats are now left with no tight-ends with any NFL experience. Coming in a year when the most notable unrestricted free-agent tight-ends are the likes of the incumbent Randy McMichael, Alge Crumpler, or L.J. Smith, Patriot nation has reason to worry about what the future holds at the end of their offensive line. Stud draft-eligible tight-ends such as Aaron Hernandez of Florida and Jermaine Gresham of Oklahoma may be off the board by pick 22, and even if one of them fell into the Patriots lap, rookie tight-ends are extremely unpredictable and usually take more than just one or two seasons to become a full-time fixture in an premier offense.
One has to wonder where the blame lies for the inability to land an offensive-staple tight-end. Even as a fan with a devoted passion and love for the franchise, one can only suggest that Belichick may not deem the position as an important piece of the puzzle as much as other teams have. Some may also believe that he cannot successfully evaluate tight-end talent, backed up by the constant drafting and releasing of tight-ends over the last ten years. Judging by the Patriots pertinent history of drafting eight tight-ends from 2000-2006, and the fact that none of those eight are currently with the team, this notion of the lack of talent-evaluating ability could be correct. The revolving door of veteran tight-ends coming through New England in the 2000's also is evidence of this notion. Bottom-of-the-barrel and mediocre players such as Rod Rutledge, Jermaine Wiggins, Christian Fauria, Jed Weaver, Kyle Brady, Marcus Pollard, and Chris Baker have come and go, and with no tight-ends selected to the Pro-Bowl since Coates in the 1999 season, the Patriots obviously have been incapable of finding a consistent tight-end through any means of acquisition.
Tight-end free agent signings are often a means of filling out a roster, and the Patriots have signed a plethora of these players to both attempt to contribute to the offense and mentor their drafted hopefuls. But in regards to the excuse that none of Belichick's draftees have panned out quite as Patriot nation had hoped, there is simply no excuse as to why such poor selections have been made. Hindsight is 20/20, but looking at the statistics of Belichick's eight tight-end selections, a red light goes off...or maybe it's a white flag. Below are the player statistics and draft information of Belichick's tight-end picks as Patriots head coach:
There are dozens of points that possibly could be made in favor of the tight-ends. But when it comes down to the simple facts, Belichick's hand-picked tight-ends have not lived nearly up to expectations. Tom Brady has averaged 33 pass attempts per game since 2000, yet New England-drafted tight-ends (the three that actually made the team) have averaged a little more then two receptions per game, and a mere 22 yards per game. This group has also averaged about 0.23 touchdowns per game, even taking into account the record setting 589-point season in 2007, led by Brady's 50 regular season touchdown passes. When comparing this to the single game averages over the last decade from seven notable tight-ends that Belichik passed on drafting, the numbers speak for themselves:
Player Year Drafted Team Rec./Game YPG TD/Game Patriots Prior Pick
Dallas Clark 2003 Rd 1, Pk 24 Colts 3.6 43 0.42 Ty Warren, DT
Jason Witten 2003 Rd 3, Pk 69 Cowboys 4.7 54 0.24 Bethel Johnson, WR
Antonio Gates 2003 Undrafted Chargers 4.4 57 0.54 Ethan Kelly, DT
Chris Cooley 2004 Rd 3, Pk 81 Redskins 3.9 44 0.34 Marquise Hill, DE
Tony Scheffler 2006 Rd 2, Pk 61 Broncos 2.4 33 0.25 Chad Jackson, WR
Owen Daniels 2006 Rd 4, Pk 98 Texans 3.8 46 0.28 David Thomas, TE
Dustin Keller 2008 Rd 1, Pk 30 Jets 2.9 33 0.17 Jerrod Mayo, LB
TOTALS --- Pick 52 --- 3.7 44 0.32 ---
In Belichick's defense, picks such as Ty Warren and Jerrod Mayo turned out for the best. And yes, it does make a huge difference when your quarterback is Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, or Matt Schaub, all of whom lead pass-happy offensive attacks. Also true is the fact that tight-ends are most susceptible to being open with a more powerful offensive supporting cast, such as having LaDainian Tomlinson or Clinton Portis in the backfield. But Tom Brady is arguably the best quarterback in the game, and since the 2001 season has fallen out of the top ten in passing attempts for that season only once. In fact, in the eight seasons Brady played 15-plus regular season games, he has attempted over 500 passes six times, and has thrown 4218 passes in his ten NFL seasons (two of which he played in only one game).
To put these numbers into perspective, it is best to look at other quarterbacks who started the vast majority of their teams' games in the last decade. The list is extremely exclusive, including Donovan McNabb, Kurt Warner, Matt Hasselbeck, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Brad Johnson, and Kerry Collins. All but Brees and Warner have played in more games than Brady in an equal amount of time (by only a few), yet Brady has thrown more passes in an equal span then Brees, McNabb, Warner, Hasselbeck, Collins, and Johnson. To conclude the quarterback discrepancy debate, Brady was one of the most prolific passing quarterbacks of the decade, which really isn't overwhelming news for any football fan.
When it comes to the opinion of Belichick's drafting and signing of tight-ends, arguments can be made both ways. But the numbers never lie, and in this case, they certainly point to the fact that the Patriots have struck out at the tight-end position over the course of the last decade. Regardless of who is at fault, if anyone, for these feeble results, it is safe to say that until the Patriots pony-up a package for a veteran or draft a stud, Tom Brady will not have had prolific, dominating tight-end in his illustrious career. And at the end of the day, Bill Belichick has no one to blame for this but himself.
Date: March 5, 2010
Make no mistake about it, since the Patriots “traded” a first-round pick to the Jets for Bill Belichick ten years ago, he has brought more success to the franchise than their prior 41 years of combined existence. And when it comes to player evaluation, management, and overall judgment, Belichick belongs grouped with the best of the NFL head coach crop. But even with his three and a half decades of NFL experience stemming back to the days of the mid-70's Baltimore Colts, Belichick cannot seem to land a consistently decent, fan-appreciated, dual-threat pass catching and run blocking tight-end.
Since the release of Patriots Hall-of-Famer Ben Coates in 1999, the Patriots have been unable to draft, sign, or stumble upon a tight-end with All-Pro capabilities. Even after selecting tight-ends in the first round twice in the 2000's, none have panned out to be the mainstays that Belichick and company had hoped them to be. With the release of veteran Chris Baker, and the unlikeliness of the former 32nd overall pick in 2004 Ben Watson being resigned, the Pats are now left with no tight-ends with any NFL experience. Coming in a year when the most notable unrestricted free-agent tight-ends are the likes of the incumbent Randy McMichael, Alge Crumpler, or L.J. Smith, Patriot nation has reason to worry about what the future holds at the end of their offensive line. Stud draft-eligible tight-ends such as Aaron Hernandez of Florida and Jermaine Gresham of Oklahoma may be off the board by pick 22, and even if one of them fell into the Patriots lap, rookie tight-ends are extremely unpredictable and usually take more than just one or two seasons to become a full-time fixture in an premier offense.
One has to wonder where the blame lies for the inability to land an offensive-staple tight-end. Even as a fan with a devoted passion and love for the franchise, one can only suggest that Belichick may not deem the position as an important piece of the puzzle as much as other teams have. Some may also believe that he cannot successfully evaluate tight-end talent, backed up by the constant drafting and releasing of tight-ends over the last ten years. Judging by the Patriots pertinent history of drafting eight tight-ends from 2000-2006, and the fact that none of those eight are currently with the team, this notion of the lack of talent-evaluating ability could be correct. The revolving door of veteran tight-ends coming through New England in the 2000's also is evidence of this notion. Bottom-of-the-barrel and mediocre players such as Rod Rutledge, Jermaine Wiggins, Christian Fauria, Jed Weaver, Kyle Brady, Marcus Pollard, and Chris Baker have come and go, and with no tight-ends selected to the Pro-Bowl since Coates in the 1999 season, the Patriots obviously have been incapable of finding a consistent tight-end through any means of acquisition.
Tight-end free agent signings are often a means of filling out a roster, and the Patriots have signed a plethora of these players to both attempt to contribute to the offense and mentor their drafted hopefuls. But in regards to the excuse that none of Belichick's draftees have panned out quite as Patriot nation had hoped, there is simply no excuse as to why such poor selections have been made. Hindsight is 20/20, but looking at the statistics of Belichick's eight tight-end selections, a red light goes off...or maybe it's a white flag. Below are the player statistics and draft information of Belichick's tight-end picks as Patriots head coach:
Player College Year Drafted Games Receptions Yards TD Result
Dave Stachelski Boise St. 2000 Rd 5, Pk 141 0 0 0 0 TC Cut '00
Jabari Holloway Notre Dame 2001 Rd 4, Pk 119 0 0 0 0 Released '02
Arther Love SC St. 2001 Rd 6, Pk 180 0 0 0 0 Released '02
Daniel Graham Colorado 2002 Rd 1, Pk 21 63 120 1393 17 Left as UFA '07
Ben Watson Georgia 2004 Rd 1, Pk 32 72 267 2102 20 Current UFA
Andy Stokes William Penn 2005 Rd 7, Pk 255 0 0 0 0 TC Cut '05
David Thomas Texas 2006 Rd 3, Pk 86 32 21 271 1 Traded '09
Garrett Mills Tulsa 2006 Rd 4, Pk 106 0 0 0 0 Released '07
TOTALS --- --- Pick 118 167 408 3766 38 ---
Dave Stachelski Boise St. 2000 Rd 5, Pk 141 0 0 0 0 TC Cut '00
Jabari Holloway Notre Dame 2001 Rd 4, Pk 119 0 0 0 0 Released '02
Arther Love SC St. 2001 Rd 6, Pk 180 0 0 0 0 Released '02
Daniel Graham Colorado 2002 Rd 1, Pk 21 63 120 1393 17 Left as UFA '07
Ben Watson Georgia 2004 Rd 1, Pk 32 72 267 2102 20 Current UFA
Andy Stokes William Penn 2005 Rd 7, Pk 255 0 0 0 0 TC Cut '05
David Thomas Texas 2006 Rd 3, Pk 86 32 21 271 1 Traded '09
Garrett Mills Tulsa 2006 Rd 4, Pk 106 0 0 0 0 Released '07
TOTALS --- --- Pick 118 167 408 3766 38 ---
There are dozens of points that possibly could be made in favor of the tight-ends. But when it comes down to the simple facts, Belichick's hand-picked tight-ends have not lived nearly up to expectations. Tom Brady has averaged 33 pass attempts per game since 2000, yet New England-drafted tight-ends (the three that actually made the team) have averaged a little more then two receptions per game, and a mere 22 yards per game. This group has also averaged about 0.23 touchdowns per game, even taking into account the record setting 589-point season in 2007, led by Brady's 50 regular season touchdown passes. When comparing this to the single game averages over the last decade from seven notable tight-ends that Belichik passed on drafting, the numbers speak for themselves:
Player Year Drafted Team Rec./Game YPG TD/Game Patriots Prior Pick
Dallas Clark 2003 Rd 1, Pk 24 Colts 3.6 43 0.42 Ty Warren, DT
Jason Witten 2003 Rd 3, Pk 69 Cowboys 4.7 54 0.24 Bethel Johnson, WR
Antonio Gates 2003 Undrafted Chargers 4.4 57 0.54 Ethan Kelly, DT
Chris Cooley 2004 Rd 3, Pk 81 Redskins 3.9 44 0.34 Marquise Hill, DE
Tony Scheffler 2006 Rd 2, Pk 61 Broncos 2.4 33 0.25 Chad Jackson, WR
Owen Daniels 2006 Rd 4, Pk 98 Texans 3.8 46 0.28 David Thomas, TE
Dustin Keller 2008 Rd 1, Pk 30 Jets 2.9 33 0.17 Jerrod Mayo, LB
TOTALS --- Pick 52 --- 3.7 44 0.32 ---
In Belichick's defense, picks such as Ty Warren and Jerrod Mayo turned out for the best. And yes, it does make a huge difference when your quarterback is Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, or Matt Schaub, all of whom lead pass-happy offensive attacks. Also true is the fact that tight-ends are most susceptible to being open with a more powerful offensive supporting cast, such as having LaDainian Tomlinson or Clinton Portis in the backfield. But Tom Brady is arguably the best quarterback in the game, and since the 2001 season has fallen out of the top ten in passing attempts for that season only once. In fact, in the eight seasons Brady played 15-plus regular season games, he has attempted over 500 passes six times, and has thrown 4218 passes in his ten NFL seasons (two of which he played in only one game).
To put these numbers into perspective, it is best to look at other quarterbacks who started the vast majority of their teams' games in the last decade. The list is extremely exclusive, including Donovan McNabb, Kurt Warner, Matt Hasselbeck, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Brad Johnson, and Kerry Collins. All but Brees and Warner have played in more games than Brady in an equal amount of time (by only a few), yet Brady has thrown more passes in an equal span then Brees, McNabb, Warner, Hasselbeck, Collins, and Johnson. To conclude the quarterback discrepancy debate, Brady was one of the most prolific passing quarterbacks of the decade, which really isn't overwhelming news for any football fan.
When it comes to the opinion of Belichick's drafting and signing of tight-ends, arguments can be made both ways. But the numbers never lie, and in this case, they certainly point to the fact that the Patriots have struck out at the tight-end position over the course of the last decade. Regardless of who is at fault, if anyone, for these feeble results, it is safe to say that until the Patriots pony-up a package for a veteran or draft a stud, Tom Brady will not have had prolific, dominating tight-end in his illustrious career. And at the end of the day, Bill Belichick has no one to blame for this but himself.
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