Friday, February 24, 2012

Money Cash Hoes


After my significant hiatus, I am returning to S2BU with a new approach. Truly, the legality may be borderline, but the new approach on S2BU is a focus on gambling. With roots that stem as far back as ancient China, where games like craps, roulette, blackjack, and keno originated, gambling is the most popular and most scrutinized form of sport in the world.
Under Federal United States law, gambling is technically legal since Nevada became the first state to implement legal wagering in 1931. Forty-five years later, Atlantic City piggybacked off Nevada's legislation, realizing the strong economic influence the sport provided. Today, almost every state has a legalized form of gambling, from casinos to state-run lotteries that provide millions of dollars in tax revenue.

The popularity of poker took off in 2005 when Harrah's began sponsoring the World Series of Poker, held annually in Las Vegas and featuring 58 different events. Because poker can be played and potentially mastered by anyone, regardless of age or sex, it has enticed millions of people to attempt poker-playing as a career. The WSOP Main Event, which has featured a grand prize of no less than $7.5 million since Harrah's took over, has been won by a player under 24 years old the last four consecutive years. That fact alone has inspired many to try their hand at becoming a sunglasses-wearing master of the deck.

Although illegal in the majority of US states, sports betting has become the most popular and participated-in form of gambling. What is regarded as a service industry in over 100 nations across the globe, Americans can utilize "bookies" anywhere from casinos to the internet to wager on professional and college sports. Most popular is the NCAA March Madness Basketball tournament, as well as Super Bowl and horse race betting. In February 2012, over $10 billion was wagered on the Super Bowl ALONE across the globe.

Even the most participatory gamblers fail to realize the most important fact pertaining to coming out on top when it comes to wagering. The most-winnable type of bet (best odds) is a straight wager. Regardless of the spread, a straight wager ultimately provides a 50% chance of winning. The side you pick either covers the spread, or they don't. There are no obscure scenarios that causes a lose-lose situation, and a push (tie) just earns the wagerer a wash. Gamblers are enticed by prop bets and parlays that pay out absurd amounts, but in truth the odds of winning those bet-types are even worse then the odds that are given.

Take a look at the example of a basic 3-team NCAA basketball parlay. Assuming the bet is juiced at a standard 10%, the bettor would wager $110 in a straight wager to win $100. However, if the bettor were to wager $110 on a 3-team parlay, the payout is $550 if all 3 teams hit. But in actuality, the odds are severely FOR the house. Using a real example:

3-Team Parlay
  1. San Jose State +5.5 (-110) @ San Diego State (-110)
  2. Portland State -2.5 (-110) @ Sacramento State (-110)
  3. Wisconsin -1 (-110) @ Iowa (-110)

Regardless of which side is selected in each match-up and applying basic mathematical principles, the real chance of winning the parlay is 12.5%. This is based off of the calculation that the chance of winning each match-up is 50%, so 50%x50%x50% = 12.5%. Converted to basic odds, the chance of winning the parlay is 8 to 1. A $110 bet at 8 to 1 odds should pay out $880, but instead the bettor is forfeiting $330, or 37.5% of their winnings, for a bet that offers worse than even odds. The catch that hooks bettors into parlays is the potential to win a lot by putting up little, but the bettor is actually harming their chances.

The "easiest" way to end up with a positive net is to NOT "gamble against yourself". This means that the bettor should only place straight wagers, and wager the exact same amount on each bet. Because of the juice, a bettor will end up losing 10% of their initial balance if he wins half of his bets. But by wagering the same amount on every straight wager, the bettor has to win just 51% of their bets to become profitable. Seems easy in theory, but because of the roll that passion plays in gambling, ending up with a $10 profit by playing it safe is hardly enticing to true sports bettors.

Even with those statistics in mind, I myself do not follow the "winning" guidelines, nor do I ever have the intent to. The odds have put a halt on me placing parlay bets, but my wager amounts tend to fluctuate based on gut-feeling and statistical support. Thus begins my latest ill-advised project, the "Gambling Gauntlet". I will post my wagers, results, and justification for each bet I make over the course of the next few weeks. Feel free to hop on board during hot streaks, and of course criticize the losses. But ultimately, if you think you could do better, then put up or shut up. Enjoy.

* None of the money used in wagers comes from what I allot for bills and life-necessities. All capital gains are recycled, and losses applied against recreational self-allotted cash.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Hiatus


Sox To Be You will be taking a hiatus from posting, as the author has moved on to bigger and better things as a contributor at Bleacher Report. Articles can be found below that have been posted on the site thus far, please read and enjoy them!

Any Fantasy Football-related posts can still be found on the KPAFFL webpage, simply by clicking on the link listed under associated sites. Thanks to all that have driven traffic for S2BU, and fret not, as there will always be more to come.

Friday, August 5, 2011

FFF v2 - The AFC East


Welcome to FFF version 2.0. Today we will be looking at the schedules of our beloved AFC East, home of YOUR NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS. Unlike Rex Ryan, I will try not to be overly-bias and make outlandish proclamations about MY team....
  • Buffalo Bills - The Bills schedule is about as exciting as the Bills' team. They have just six games against 2010 playoff teams, four of which are versus the Pats and Jets. Unfortunately for them, they face plenty of teams that are currently getting stronger, including the completely revamped NFC East. They begin the season on the road in Kansas City, one of the toughest stadiums to play in as a visitor in the league. Their home opener comes in week 2 against a sporadic Raiders team, a game that Buffalo can probably steal if they can keep Darren McFadden and Michael Bush at bay. In week 3 they face off against the Patriots at home, and unless Bruce Smith pulls a Benjamin Button, they have no chance of winning. Next up are the Bengals on the road, which will either be their first win or get them to .500. Before their week 7 bye, Philly comes to Buffalo followed by a trip to Giants Stadium. The Bills don't have a prayer in either of those matchups. Following the bye are the Redskins and Jets at home. The Redskins will probably struggle under John Beck this season, giving the Bills hope for their third win, but they will surely lose their first matchup with the Jets. The team then hits the road for three straight games against Dallas, Miami, and ending with the Jets again. They will be lucky to win one of those contests, and if they do it will be the Dolphins who they take down. Their next opponent is the Titans, who will be one of the more intriguing teams to watch this year. Led by Matt Hasselbeck, they could be a lot better then last year's 4-12 team, hosting a more balanced run-pass attack then years past. It is easy to imagine Chris Johnson rushing for 200 yards against the porous Bills run defense. Next is a road trip to San Diego, which can be chalked-up as another loss. They finish the season off with home games against Miami and Denver, and finally a road trip to New England. Best case scenario, they win two of the three, either taking down the Dolphins and Broncos, or splitting the two games and stealing one from the Pats (although unlikely as New England will be looking to preserve their 15-0 record). In the end, Buffalo will spend the season battling for the basement with Miami. My prediction: 5-11 at season end.
  • Miami Dolphins - Although Miami added Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas to their offensive backfield, they still have the weakest overall offense in the East, mainly because of Chad Henne. Henne has already been booed by Dolphin fans in preseason practices, foreshadowing another tumultuous season. I'm not going to bother going through their schedule, because I don't think they will win more than four games. Cleveland, Washington, Buffalo, and Oakland are the only teams they have a remote shot at beating. The team looks a lot like the 2007 Dolphins, who went 1-15. The only positive is that their home games are against weaker opponents, giving them a slight edge in a few contests, but ultimately they probably sneak just two or three wins out of the season in boring, low scoring, mistake-filled games. They will beat the Browns, Redskins, and split with Buffalo, leading them to a 3-13 record. The season will be a reminder that they still need a quarterback, but should be in good position to win the Andrew Luck sweepstakes with one of the worst records in football.
  • New York Jets - The Jets are a tricky team to predict. Aside from the fact that I hate them and would love nothing more then for them to go 7-9, they also are prone to meltdowns in certain games, losing when they should win and vice-versa. In terms of personnel, not a whole lot has changed on the offensive side of the ball. They replace drop-happy Braylon Edwards at WR with Plaxico Burress, who is fresh off of a 2 year prison sentence. Plax is about to turn 34, but as a big, possession receiver, age shouldn't hinder his ability as much as a WR that relies on speed. Once he develops a rhythm with Mark Sanchez, the two could be very threatening. On the defensive side of the ball, they have a retooled defensive line, but are virtually the same elsewhere. The reason they lost five games in 2010 was because their offense became anemic against top defenses. Without taking their game against Chicago into account, they scored a combined 18 points in their first four losses. In a league where shutouts are a rarity, the Jets were one of just four teams to be blanked last year, proving their lack of offensive prowess at times. With matchups against Baltimore, Kansas City, Philly, the Giants, and the Patriots, they face a few tough defenses in 2011, but also face plenty of softies as well. Unfortunately for the Jets, losers of two straight AFC Championships, they did little to improve their weaknesses in the off-season. Sanchez has gotten better, but he will never be a top-5 statistical QB, and their receiving depth is glaring weakness after losing Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery, and Brad Smith. Disregarding Dustin Keller's presence, they will be forced to use Patrick Turner or rookie Jeremy Kerley in three WR sets. Without an established passing attack, they will struggle against big offensive lines, especially New England's and Kansas City's. They will lose at least one matchup against the Pats, and will lose to Baltimore, KC, and Philly as well. In the end, they will finish 11-5 and make the playoffs as the wild card again. But they are a first-round playoff casualty this year, as other AFC teams have done much more to improve themselves.
  • New England Patriots - They didn't address their horrendous pass-rush the way most would've thought, but Albert Haynesworth is the key to the Patriots' season. If he forms a dynamic duo with Vince Wilfork, this team has Super Bowl written all over it. For what it's worth, the Patriots have a perfect blend of youth and veterans on both sides of the ball. On defense, they may be exposed in the secondary at times, but up front they are as big and physical as any team in the league. With a defensive front of Fat Albert, Wilfork, Mike Wright, Brandon Spikes, Jerrod Mayo, and Jermaine Cunningham, teams will have an extremely difficult time running the ball. As they have in the past few seasons, they will man-handle Miami and Buffalo, as well as weaker opponents like Washington, Denver, and the regressing Chargers. They get the Colts at home, but go into Pittsburgh in late October and Philly in November. Those will be their most challenging non-division games, but if they can avoid the injury bug and play Patriot football, they can handle anything thrown their way. They are helped by facing Pitt coming off a bye, but are forced to face Super Bowl contenders with their matchup against the NFC East. Just as there are many uncertain scenarios league-wide, the Patriots season will be determined by the success of their newcomers. But the Pats still have the makeup of a 13+ win team, and should win the division for a third straight time. The Patriots will go 13-3, and have home field advantage throughout the playoffs, which will lead to their first Super Bowl berth since 2007.

Friday, July 29, 2011

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Fun Fact Friday


Welcome to Fun Fact Friday. The FFF image is a comparison of the last 2 Red Sox records in years they won the World Series to now. As you can see, they are 2 wins better than their '07 squad, but only 2 games up on NY instead of 7.5. This can be attributed to just how elite the AL East is now, especially compared to divisions like the NL and AL Central ones.

Did you know?
  • In 2010, former Red Sox first-round pick Matt Murton set the single season record for most hits in Japan's Nipon Professional Baseball League with 214. Murton, who plays in the outfield, was drafted by the Sox in 2003, and played in 155 games for Lowell and Sarasota. He was then included in the trade that sent Nomar to the Cubs and brought Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz to the Sox, helping lead them to their first World Series victory in 86 years. Murton played in 346 games with the Cubs, A's, and Rockies from 2005-2009, hitting .286 with 29 HR and 112 RBI. His 214 hits in 2010 broke Ichiro Suzuki's record of 210, set in 1994, six years before he would come to the US and play for the Mariners.
  • Carl Crawford is the MLB's active leader in career triples, with 109. The all-time career record is 309, held by Sam Crawford, who played from 1899 to 1917 with Cincinnati and Detroit. The record will likely never be broken, as Curtis Granderson, Jimmy Rollins, and Christian Guzman are the only players to hit 20 or more triples in a season in the last 15 years.
  • Since 2000, Cincinnati Bengals have had 35 arrests, leading the NFL with 2 more than the Minnesota Vikings. In the same time frame, Detroit and St. Louis are at the bottom of the league, with seven arrests each. Click here to see the list of Bengals arrested in the last 11 seasons. It includes all but the three most recent arrests of Adam Jones, Cedric Benson, and Marvin White.
  • Recently retired Mark Recchi of the Boston Bruins is the second to last player who appeared in the NHL in the 1980's to retire. Mike Modano of the Red Wings is the only remaining player. Recchi, who scored his first NHL goal 4 YEARS before Tyler Seguin was born, began his career when the NHL had just 21 teams. Four of those teams have since moved or folded, and nine others have been added. Recchi became the oldest player to score a goal in the Stanley Cup Finals this year, at 43 years and 126 days old.
  • Mark Reynolds of the Baltimore Orioles in on pace to have his first season since 2007 of NOT ECLIPSING 200 strikeouts at the plate. In 2008, Reynolds set the MLB single-season record with 204, only to break it again in 2009 with 223. In 2010, he rebounded with 211, which is still second all-time. He is the only player to ever strike out 200 times in a season, and he done it three times! The past seven years have had it's fair share of strikeouts, as the top 9 single-season strikeout totals have all occurred in the past seven seasons, by Reynolds, Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, and Jack Cust.
  • The 2010 NFL leading rusher was Houston's Arian Foster, who was an undrafted free agent out of Tennessee in 2009. Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs was the second leading rusher, and he was a 2008 third-round pick out of Texas. Third was Michael Turner of Atlanta, who was San Diego's fifth-round pick out of Northern Illinois in 2004. See the trend here? In fact, of the top-ten running backs in 2010, only four were first round picks. Compare this to the top-ten QB's, in which six were first rounders.
  • Breakout running back Peyton Hillis of the Browns rushed for 1177 yards in 2010. It was the first time since 1984 that a white running back eclipsed the 1000 yard mark in a season. The last non-Patriot was John Riggins of the Redskins, who ran for 1239 yards and 14 touchdowns at age 35.
  • Felix Hernandez pitches against the Sox at Fenway tonight, and he was also on the mound the last time Seattle won a game, which was July 5th. They are riding a 12-game losing streak and challenging the likes of Baltimore and Oakland for the worst record in the AL. Of the players in the Sox lineup, JD Drew actually has the best career numbers against Hernandez, as he has batted .360 (9 for 25) with 2 HR's against him. The last time Felix faced the Sox, he pitched 7 innings, giving up 6 hits and 2 runs, but Carl Crawford hit a walk-off single in the bottom of the ninth to give the Sox a 3-2 victory. The Mariners are 5-3 against the Sox in King Felix's starts in the past five seasons.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Your 2011 New England Patriots Offense


As of today, the NFL lockout is rumored to be ending within the next few days. The timing couldn't be more perfect, because if the NFL and the Players Association can come to agreement this week, free agency would be set to begin around July 28th (the same few days of the MLB trade deadline). The beginning of free agency will be a lot like opening a dam that is literally spewing over the top, meaning the first hour will be absolute insanity. There is sure to be a scurry of trades, releases, signings, and any type of player movement imaginable. Pro Bowl-caliber players such as DeAngelo Williams, Sidney Rice, Vincent Jackson, Matt Hasselbeck, Logan Mankins, Ray Edwards, Cullen Jenkins, Manny Lawson, Stephen Tulloch, Nnamdi Asmougha, and Michael Huff could all change uniforms at the strike of midnight. The NFL QB-carousel will also be in full swing, with names like Kevin Kolb, Marc Bulger, Kyle Orton, Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, Tavaris Jackson, and Vince Young, to name a few, all finding new homes and potential starting gigs. But in the end, New Englanders really only care about two aspects of free agency: who the Patriots will sign, and who the Jets WON'T sign. Let's take a look at possible Patriot targets, broken down by position. The defensive segment will follow in the coming days.
  1. QB - The Patriots have the least to worry about at quarterback of any team in the NFL. A healthy Tom Brady is as solid as the position gets. Behind him, they have a future star (my personal opinion) in Ryan Mallett, and Brian Hoyer is a decent third option with a few seasons under his belt. The Pats aren't likely to sign a QB, but could bring one or two into camp to compete with Hoyer for third-string. Belichick loves to have youth infused into the depth chart, so bringing in former UDel QB Pat Devlin for the practice squad or Drew Stanton to compete with Hoyer isn't out of the question. With the Patriots to be a projected 10-12 million dollars under the cap, look for them to only bring a QB in at the league minimum and nothing more.
  2. RB - Fred Taylor won't be back, as his contract has run out and he will in all likelihood hang up his cleats. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who eclipsed 1000 yards last season, was tendered with a second round pick as a restricted free agent, and will likely be part of the starting backfield. Danny Woodhead was locked up with a two year contract through 2012, and will again be utilized by the Patriots with his unique skill set. Sammy Morris's latest contract has run out, but he is a key contributor on special teams and on the goal line, and may return on a low-cost, one year deal. Kevin Faulk no longer has a place on the Patriots, with Woodhead as the main pass-catching threat out of the backfield, and will either retire or try to catch on elsewhere. Finally, the Patriots drafted big Shane Vereen out of Cal, who projects to be a large change of pace-type back, and Stevan Ridley, who could be the Patriots version of a fullback with his enormous size and downhill run style. All-in-all, they are looking at a Green-Ellis/Woodhead/Morris/Vereen/Ridley offensive backfield, which is overcrowded to say the least. Look for them to bring in a low-cost speedster in free agency, such as undrafted free agent Noel Devine from West Virginia, or Derrick Locke from Kentucky. They have no need to spend big on the running game, since they are a pass-first offense. They surely will not even make an offer to any of the top-tier free agent backs, as is accustomed to their usual free agency approach.
  3. WR - Wes Welker and Deion Branch will both see plenty of targets this season, and Brandon Tate will fill out the depth chart. What the Patriots lack is a true #2 WR option after Welker, because Branch and Welker are both slot receivers. They felt the impact of trading Randy Moss, as hard as it is to admit, and will either await Chad Johnson's release from the Bengals, or uncharacteristically target one of the top free agents. Sidney Rice would be an amazing addition to an already potent offense, but he is likely to command one of the larger contracts handed out, and may be priced out of the Patriots range. Malcolm Floyd and Mike Sims-Walker would be excellent alternative options, as both are coming off down years and may be cheaper options then Rice. Nate Burleson and the Panther's Steve Smith are both trade/release candidates, and it isn't far-fetched to see either end up here. In the end, it seems "Ochocinco" is destined to end up in New England at some point in his career, and the time may be now. I predict he is the most likely to end up a Patriot in 2011, followed by Malcolm Floyd and Steve Smith. Sidney Rice has an outside chance if the Patriots decide to spend their remaining cap space on the offensive side of the ball, but their defensive needs are more dire and thus they are more likely to spend on pass-rushers.
  4. TE - The Patriots have two of the best young tight ends in the game with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Both had huge rookie seasons, and filled the Patriots void in their WR depth. Alge Crumpler enters his final year of his contract with the Pats, and will remain their blocking tight end. The team has no need for another tight end, and will fill out their training camp depth with newly drafted Lee Smith from Marshall.
  5. OT - Sebastian Vollmer is a lock at starting tackle, and newly drafted Nate Solder could potentially step in and start immediately if the Patriots are willing to rely on a rookie tackle. Matt Light, who has spent his career in NE, is a free agent and all signs point to the Patriots opting to not re-sign him. Gigantic Marcus Cannon, the Pats 5th-round pick out of TCU, was a projected first round pick before it was discovered he has non-Hodgkin's lymphoma at the combine. The good news is Cannon could completely recover and even play in 2011, and because of his 6'5, 350-pound frame, he can play anywhere on the OL but center. He certainly has a future as a starting NFL offensive lineman, and the Patriots truly got a steal by taking him so late in the draft. But they will approach the season with the notion that he may not be available until week 6 at the earliest. The Patriots asked Nick Kaczur to take a pay-cut from his $3.4 million salary prior to the 2011 season, and they are now fully expected to release him after he declined. Little known Quinn Ojinnaka is a free agent, leaving the Patriots with just Mark LeVoir and Steve Maneri behind Vollmer and Solder. To keep Brady injury-free, the Patriots will need solid play from their tackles, and it is safe to say Solder and Vollmer will need help at some point in the season. The Patriots will either need to sign Matt Light, or bring in a free agent tackle that excels in pass-protection, such as former Seahawk Sean Locklear or often injured former Bronco Ryan Harris.
  6. OG - Nine-year inspirational Stephen Neal has retired, Logan Mankins is demanding $10 million or to be granted free agency, and Dan Connolly is left as the only experienced guard on the team. The Patriots have Rich Ohrnberger, Thomas Austin, and Ryan Wendell to fill out their depth, but they are in dire need of starting-caliber guards. If they can convince Mankins to return, their offensive line outlook is much more positive, but Mankins gives the perception that he is all about the money, which is a far-cry from the Patriot mantra. There are a few solid, veteran guards on the market, including Justin Blalock, Derrick Dockery, David Baas, and Robert Gallery, but the Patriots tend to promote from within when it comes to the middle of the OL. They will likely start Connolly and attempt to lock up Mankins, but if Mankins refuses to accept the franchise tag salary or accept a multi-year deal, the Patriots will be forced to move on without him and sign a veteran guard. Belichick surely has a plan in place already for the position, and it is anyone's guess whom he is targeting.
  7. C - Dan Koppen will remain the Patriots reliable center. Guard Ryan Wendell is their backup center, and the team has no need to bring in a free agent at the position. Center is seemingly the only position on the Patriots' OL that there is no need to worry about.

Monday, July 18, 2011

Life Without Tiger


On Thursday, September 29th, over 100 professional golfers from the PGA tour will tee-off for the first round of the Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. The tournament is held at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, and up until 2004 was a 5-round affair. The past three winners were Johnathan Byrd, Martin Laird, and Marc Turnesa, all of whom are little-known current or former PGA members. The purse, at $4.4 million, is the fifth-lowest of the 46 PGA events in 2011, and is often won by lesser-known players because of the lack of top-golfer attendance, despite the charitable cause.
What is so significant about this event? Back in 1996, it was the first PGA tournament won by Rookie of the Year Tiger Woods. Tiger may be remembered for bursting onto the scene with his 1997 Masters victory, but 1996 was his actual rookie season on the PGA tour, when he finished 22nd as an amateur at the British Open, but eventually would win 2 PGA events, the Las Vegas Invitational (as it was called at the time), and the Walt Disney World/Oldsmobile Classic. The LV Invitational was the first of Tiger's now 71-PGA wins, ranking third all-time, but his accomplishments are not the focus of this piece. The 10-time PGA Player of the Year and winner of 14 PGA Majors hasn't won a PGA event since 2009, nor has he won a Major since the 2008 US Open. Amid his marriage scandals, injuries, and becoming trashed in the court of public opinion, the once-heralded Tiger has been through the wringer, and the void of his presence has opened the PGA up for a multitude of lesser-known golfers to step into the spotlight.
Since Padraig Harrington won back-to-back Majors at the end of 2008, no PGA member has more than one Major win. Twelve different golfers have won the last 12 Majors, including 9 first-time Major winners. Many fans of professional golf would argue that Tiger's lack of participation has drastically hurt the sport, as TV ratings have dipped, and the competition has been "diluted". But I believe the Tiger-free hiatus has been good for the game, as well as the plethora of golfers that have won in Tiger's absence.
Take this weekend's British Open into account. 42-year old Darren Clarke, who turned pro in 1990 when Tiger was just 14 years of age, won his first Major in 54 career appearances. Clarke almost skipped the event when ESPN offered him a gig as an on-air commentator, but opted to give the event one more shot. He had finished 44th, 52nd, and was cut in his previous three British Open appearances, yet the Northern-Irish father of two held steady through the final round, and staved off a charging Phil Mickelson to take home his first Major victory. It was an inspirational win for not only Clarke, who lost his wife of 10 years to breast cancer in 2006, but to all golfers on the tour without a Major victory. Clarke put his name in the books on his 20th British Open try, and effectively raised his world ranking from 111th to 30th thanks to his -5 victory at Royal St. George's.