Bruins - Canucks Roundup

There have been 19 NHL seasons since the last time the Bruins were in the Stanley Cup Finals. Eleven different teams have taken the Cup home, led by Detroit with four. The Bruins haven't brought a championship to Boston since the 1972 season, when they beat the Rangers in 6 games. In fact, the NHL has more than doubled in size since the last Bruins' championship, expanding from 14 to 30 teams. Two of the 14 happened to be in this year's match-up, being Vancouver and Boston. Although the Bruins are trying to end a 39 year title-drought, Vancouver has never won a Stanley Cup, and are making only their third appearance in the Finals since their founding in 1945. Their last appearance was in 1994, when the Pavel Bure-led Canucks were ousted by Brian Leetch and the New York Rangers in seven games. To put the time frame into perspective, Boston's Milan Lucic, who is a Vancouver native and former Canuck-faithful, was five years old the last time the time played for the Cup. Now, the 22 year old (who turns 23 on June 7th) will face off against his former home-town team as the Bruins seek their 6th ever Stanley Cup.
The Bruins and Canucks faced off only once in the 2010-2011 season, as the Bruins skated away with a 3-1 victory on the road. Manny Molhotra, who will return for the Finals after missing the second half of the season with an eye injury, netted Vancouver's only goal in the first period. Horton tied it up in the second, and Lucic scored the eventual winner, followed up by Bergeron's empty-netter late in the third. Lucic finished with 3 points, and Thomas stopped 27 of 28 shots, bettering Roberto Luongo's 22 stops. The teams are about as unfamiliar with each other as they could be, as they have faced off just four times in the past five seasons. The Bruins won three of the four, losing the 2009-2010 matchup in a shootout loss. Thomas, who didn't break into the NHL until he was 28 years old, has been stellar in his career against the Canucks. He has faced them three times, all of which were 2006 until the present, winning all three contests and stopping 97 of 98 shots (including two shutouts). The Michigan-native will most likely take home his second Vezina Trophy in the past three seasons, which is more than impressive because of the fact his first came at the age of 35.
The Canucks are led by the Sedin twins, Henrik and Daniel, who were drafted number two and three overall in 1999, and have never not played on the same hockey team. Daniel led the NHL with 104 points this past season, with Henrik following at fourth with 94 points. On the flip side, Henrick led the NHL with 112 points during the 2009-2010 season, and Daniel finished tied for eleventh with 85. The twins will face the Bruins as two thirds of the first line, along with winger Alexandre Burrows. The third scoring option on the Canucks is Ryan Kesler, who scored a league fifth-best 41 goals this season as the second line center. The team also features 50-point scorers in Mikael Samuelsson and Christian Ehroff. Ehroff anchors the second line's defense, but missed games four and five of the second round with a shoulder injury and is still listed as day-to-day. Samuelsson was lost for the season in the second round of the playoffs, requiring sports hernia surgery, and will be replaced by trade-deadline acquisitions Chris Higgins at LW on the second line. The offensive prowess displayed by Vancouver this season shows just how talented their forwards are, and they will be quite the challenge for the inconsistent Bruins defense. Although both teams feature goaltenders who have played excellent this season, expect a high-scoring series that could go either way in seven games. In the end, hopefully the Bruins will end their Cup drought and bring Boston it's seventh professional title since 2001.

Sean vs. Tyler Update

Updated through May 31, 2011. Without delving into the details, I am somewhat screwed.

Sexy They Are Not

Every year, rumors swirl around the Patriots regarding their usually low first-round draft pick, and what player they could take. In classic Belichick form, they always seem to pass on the "sexy" picks, the ones that had become household college football names. Does it pan out? Yes. For Pats fans, is the draft boring? Yes. But prior to 2011's draft, four of the Patriots' last six top picks are Pro Bowlers. The only true failure since 2005 is Laurence Maroney, and the jury is still out on Patrick Chung. Logan Mankins, Brandon Meriweather, Jerod Mayo, and Devin McCourty have all contributed in major ways to the success of the team (and yes, it is weird that five of the last six top picks have a last name beginning in M).
Enter draft 2k11. With three picks in the top 33, anyone with half a brain is predicting the Pats draft AT LEAST one legitimate pass-rusher, which was their key weakness last season. But just as they have done so many times, they make one surprising pick or move after another. The details are as followed:

Pick 1 - Round 1 / Pk 17 - Nate Solder, OT, Colorado

• Solder was one of four OT's taken in the first round, second to only Tyron Smith who went to the Cowboys at #9. Although Scouts Inc. ranked Solder as the third-ranked OT, he is easily the largest, and possibly most athletic offense lineman in the draft. At 6'8, 319 pounds, he is 3 inches taller and 15 pounds heavier than the average left tackle in the NFL, and his sub-5.0 forty-yard dash time is highly uncommon. Solder didn't miss a single game in college, and is known for living and breathing football. He was recruited out of Buena Vista High School in Colorado as a first-team all state tight end and defensive end, and ranked as the number eight high school prospect in the state. After moving to tackle the spring before his redshirt-sophomore season, Solder made 36 straight starts, and finished his illustrious college career as a top-3 finalist for the Outland Trophy.
• What does Solder's selection by New England foreshadow for the 2011 team? Unfortunately, it almost certainly spells the end to the Matt Light-era. At 32 years old, Light will likely be a well sought-after commodity on the free agent market, and with a future stud LT in hand, the Pats won't match any high contract offers by other teams. Solder virtually completes the Patriots' offensive line overhaul, which includes Sebastian Vollmer; and if they can get him on-board, Logan Mankins as well. Look for Solder to be an immediate starter, with Pro Bowl written all over him.

Pick 2 - Rd 2 / Pk 33 - Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia

• The only reason Dowling wasn't selected in the mid-first round was because he missed all but five games his senior year with knee and hamstring issues, and then broke his ankle. Aside from that, he missed one game in his first three seasons, and at almost 6'2, 200 pounds, is an ideal physical coverage cornerback. He possesses the size to cover Anquan Boldin/Brandon Marshall types, and the strength to blow up outside run plays that have killed the Patriots by the likes of CJ Spiller and LT. Scouts Inc. ranked Dowling as the #5 CB in the draft, but after the obvious consensus number one (Patrick Peterson), the jury is out on who the most successful in the group of Jimmy Smith (Ravens), Brandon Harris (Texans), Prince Amukamara (Giants), and Dowling will be. Known as an extremely hard worker and team leader, Dowling spent a year at Hargrave Military Academy after high school, playing DB and WR, as well as basketball and track. He is an overall outstanding athlete, and scouts compare him to Ike Taylor of the Steelers
• The Patriots will enter 2011 with Leigh Bodden and Devin McCourty as the solidified starters, but Dowling is an excellent candidate to take over the nickel-back role. Darius Butler and Kyle Arrington have been anything but reliable, and if Dowling can improve on his explosiveness, he will be a huge addition to a defense that lacks effective outside linebackers. His outside presence will allow the Patriots to overload one side of the offensive line in blitz schemes, instead of relying on OLB's for flat coverage. Dowling also provides much-needed injury depth to a team that has used Troy Brown, Jonathan Wilhite, Terrence Wheatley, Shawn Springs, Mike Richardson, and Lewis Sanders as cornerbacks in the past few years. Barring any injuries to Dowling or the two starters, he should be good for 40+ tackles, as well as a good amount of pass break-ups.

Pick 3 - Rd 2 / Pk 56 - Shane Vereen, RB, California

• This pick is a head-scratcher. Vereen is a quick, non-overpowering tailback with excellent pass-catching ability, much like Kevin Faulk and Danny Woodhead. He has a terrific head on his shoulders, fitting the Patriot pedigree, and has a nose for the end zone, scoring 18 touchdowns in his senior campaign. Scouts Inc. ranked him as the #9 running back in the draft, with his biggest weaknesses being lack of strength and agility. He has weak acceleration, but very fast top-end speed, running the 40-yard dash in 4.5 seconds at the combine. His skill set certainly fits the Patriots' usual game-plan, but doesn't exactly fit the team's needs as much as other available backs. The Patriots could have drafted every running back in the draft, as none had been taken when they traded the 28th overall pick to the Saints who took Mark Ingram. The Patriots either know something that no one else does about this kid, or they made an uncharacteristic reach for a player that probably would've been available in the third round.
• As hard as it is to imagine, Shane Vereen could very well be Kevin Faulk's replacement. They are almost identical in size and skill sets. Faulk is coming off a season lost to a torn ACL, and may have to fight for a contract in training camp. But with the roster as it stands now, Green-Ellis/Woodhead/Vereen look like they will play along the lines of a 40/40/20 percentage split. The Patriots like to have different personal to utilize depending on the defenses they are facing, and have no problem giving one of their backs the bulk of plays one week, and not using him at all the next week. They have featured four different leading rushers in the last five seasons, and their running back depth chart is as unpredictable as they come. Only Belichick really knows how much Vereen will see the field.

Pick 4 - Rd 3 / Pk 73 - Stevan Ridley, RB, LSU

• Although most "experts" may disagree, Ridley makes more sense than Vereen. He is a bruiser that measures just under six feet, and weighs 225 pounds. He ran a 4.66 at the combine, and is the epitome of a downhill, up the middle runner. Although he is on the slower end and does not possess any pass-catching talent, he can be nearly impossible to bring down, much like Brandon Jacobs. His size offers the potential of being a good pass blocker, but he has a lot to work on in that aspect of the game. Much like the parallel between Vereen and Faulk, Ridley looks a lot like Sammy Morris in terms of size and skill set. Ridley is a goal line beast, and will see his fair share of short yardage carries in 2011.
• Even for a team that takes the ultimate running back by committee approach, drafting two backs results in an extremely overcrowded Patriot backfield. Fred Taylor, Morris, and Faulk are all aging free agents, and it would be a surprise if more than one (if any) of the three are brought back. Ridley will play the bruiser/fullback role for the Patriots, and should be heavily utilized on special teams. Although Ridley graded out as a much later draft selection, he definitely fits the Patriots' needs.

Pick 5 - Rd 3 / Pk 74 - Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas

• Apparently, not many teams were high on Mallett. Scouts Inc.'s #6 ranked QB fell from an early first-round grade all the way to the third-round. The knock on Mallett is his off-field issues, and an extreme lack of speed. Teams were obviously concerned about his lack of mobility and decision making, resulting in the likes of Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, and Christian Ponder coming off the board before him. However, it is impossible for me to not be bias about Mallett. He was hands down my favorite college football player over the last few seasons, and is a proven winner. There is no doubt that his personal issues will "disappear" under the tutelage of Brady and Belichick. His speed is of zero concern, especially in an offense that heavily relies on the pass. Belichick knows EXACTLY how to make late round QB steals, and this pick epitomizes that concept. Mallett has experienced pro-style offenses at both Michigan and Arkansas, and has an absolute cannon of an arm. He has the vision and intangibles to be a very successful NFL QB, and if the plan is to groom him under Brady, Patriots fans should feel very comfortable about the post-Brady future that looms.
• Mallett hopefully won't see the field this season unless it is in a blowout, because otherwise that would mean Brady is out. Mallett's career will head one of two ways. He will either be showcased in the preseason, and eventually spun for draft picks to a needy team, or will take the reigns from Brady in 2015. Brady stated last year he would like to play another ten years, but in today's NFL that is unrealistic and is much more likely he will retire prior to an immense drop off (Brett Favre style). Either way, Big Tex IS GOING TO BE a solid NFL QB in the future.

Pick 6 - Rd 5 / Pk 138 - Marcus Cannon, OL, TCU

• Cannon fell to the fifth round for just one reason: he has non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Fortunately, it is an extremely treatable form of cancer, with a better than 90% success rate in recovery. This wasn't discovered until his combine physical, and prior to the diagnosis would've easily been a Day 1 OT pick. Cannon is gigantic and quick for his 6'5, 358 pound frame. He has kept his nose clean and with work could become a consistent NFL starter. With his conditioning kept in-check and work on his awareness, Cannon could become a Pro Bowl-caliber tackle because of his size and athleticism.
• Marcus Cannon is much like the Patriots' selection of Sebastian Vollmer two years ago. Both possess monstrous size, and underdeveloped, raw talent. Dante Scarnecchia is one of the best at progressing and developing offensive lineman, and it is exciting to think of what he could make the likes of Solder and Cannon into. As Stephan Neal has retired, and questions surround Mankins' contract and Nick Kaczur's injuries, the Patriots are doing all they can to fill their OL depth. They now have 11 offensive lineman 28 years old or under heading into 2011, and their continued success relies heavily on the protection of Brady. Once Cannon is cancer-free, which should be prior to the start of the season, he will look to show the rest of the league just how much they underestimated his abilities.

Pick 7 - Rd 5 / Pk 159 - Lee Smith, TE, Marshall

• Lee Smith and Marshall were a perfect fit for each other. Smith was dismissed from Tennessee his freshman year after an arrest for a DUI, only to thrive as a student athlete at Marshall. He was a team leader and captain, and as relentless and tough on the field as they come. He will be utilized by the Patriots exactly as he was at Marshall, getting very few looks in the passing game, but a key cog as a blocker. The Patriots are all set as far as pass-catching tight ends go, so Lee fits in with the team well as the heir-apparent to Alge Crumpler in the TE3 role.
  

Pick 8 - Rd 6 / Pk 194 - Markell Carter, LB, Central Arkansas

• Carter has good size at 6-4, 248 pounds, and will work to play OLB for the Patriots. He was a defensive end in college, and tied for third on the team with 52 tackles his senior year. What impressed scouts, and the reason the Patriots took him, was his 19 tackles for a loss in the 2010 season. He also had 5.5 sacks and two forced fumbles, one of which he brought back for a TD. The Patriots will do their best to groom him into a pass-rushing specialist, and he will surely see the field on special teams somewhere down the road.
  

Pick 9 - Rd 7 / Pk 219 - Malcolm Williams, DB, TCU

• Williams was taken strictly for special teams depth, and may or may not make the roster. He played two seasons at TCU, recording 22 total tackles, 16 of which came on special teams. He will either shine on kickoffs and punts during the preseason, or will be an early roster casualty.
  

Bruins-Bolts Matchup

The Bruins will play the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference Finals, a matchup that bodes well for the B's. In four meetings this season, the Bruins went 3-1-0 against TB, including an 8-1 victory at home on December 2nd. They last faced off on March 3rd in Boston, in a penalty-filled game won by Lucic's goal with less than 4 minutes remaining.
The 2010-2011 Lightning are a far cry from the 2009-2010 team, as they earned the 5 seed with 103 points this year, but last year finished with 80 points and missed the playoffs, and had the sixth-worst record in the NHL. Their turnaround can be attributed to their electric offense, which features the number 2 and 5 points leaders in the NHL this season, Martin St. Louis and Steve Stamkos. The aging veteran St. Louis is in his 10th season with the Bolts, and at the age of 35, had a career best 68 assists to go with his 31 goals. His line mate Stamkos is at an opposite point in his career. He finished his 3rd professional season with 91 points, and at age 21 is one of the league's best players. Their offense also features Vinny Lecavalier, Ryan Malone, Simon Gagne, Steve Downie, and Alex Tanguay, to go with their top defenders Victor Hedman, Mike Lundin, and deadline acquisition Eric Brewer. Their mainstay in net is Dwayne Roloson, who has gone 8-3-0 in the playoffs with a .941 save percentage and 2.01 GAA.
In their 4 matchups this season, the B's outscored the Bolts 15-8, but never faced Roloson, who was acquired from the Islanders 20 games into the season. Roloson is a 41-year old journeyman, who has played for 6 teams over 13 seasons. His most notable season was in 05-06 with the Oilers, as he stood on his head during the playoffs and reached the Stanley Cup, only to be lost for the series in Game 1 with a knee injury, and the Oilers ultimately lost the series in 7 games. His play in this series will determine the Lightning's fate, as he is facing the year's hottest goaltender in Thomas, and will have to prevent the B's from getting up early in the series if the Bolts have a chance. But in the end, the Bruins are too hot to handle and should take the series in 6 games.

Quick NHL/NBA Seed Analysis

Unlike in baseball and football, playoff seeding in the NBA and NHL usually defines the fate of all involved teams. Over the past ten seasons, the average seed of the Super Bowl Champion was a three seed, and the loser was between a one and a two. In the World Series, the champion has been between a two and three seed, and the loser has averaged a three seed. But both sports have had plenty of underdogs going the distance. The MLB has had seven Wild Cards reach the World Series in the past ten years, with three winning it all. The NFL has had three Wild Card Super Bowl Champs, and a one seed has lost seven of the past ten Super Bowls.
On the opposite side of the spectrum, you have the NBA and NHL, who have sixteen playoff participants each year. There are two trains of thought about the effect this could have on the playoffs. One would be that with more teams, there will be more weaker teams. The other is that with more teams, it is more likely for a low seed to at least "shock and awe" every few years or so. But the latter is not the case. In the NBA, the average Finals Champion is a one or two seed, and the loser a two seed. In the NHL, the average Stanley Cup Champ is also between a one or two, and the loser is usually between a four or five seed. If those numbers don't prove anything to you, try this. In the NBA, no seed lower than a four has reached the Finals in the past ten years. No seed lower than a three has actually been NBA champion. In the NHL, only once has a team that isn't seeded one or two won the Stanley Cup since 2001. Therefore, it should be somewhat easier to predict the champ from each sport based on playoff seeding.

Based off of the past ten years history, these are the possible outcomes of the NHL Playoffs:
Capitals defeat Predators in Stanley Cup Finals
Canucks defeat Penguins in Stanley Cup Finals
Flyers defeat Predators in Stanley Cup Finals
Sharks defeat Penguins in Stanley Cup Finals

The same applies for the possible outcomes of the NBA Playoffs:
Bulls defeat Lakers in NBA Finals
Spurs defeat Heat in NBA Finals
Heat defeat Lakers in NBA Finals
Lakers defeat Heat in NBA Finals

So yes, these scenarios are not positive at all for Boston fans. But I'm just crunching the numbers. Don't shoot the messenger.

Boston Roundup

The Red Sox are infuriating to watch right now. Aside from taking two of three from the Yanks, and a gem of a game from Beckett against Sabathia. Last night's spanking against the Rays takes the cake as the most embarrassing game to date, for a multitude of reasons. The worst is that it came from a team that was 1-8, statistically last in every hitting category, and had scored only TWENTY runs in their first nine games. But Daisuke seems to always cure a poorly-hitting teams' woes, and he did just that, allowing 10 men to reach base and giving up seven runs in two innings. Wakefield couldn't do much better, and Dan Wheeler continued his horrid start giving up four runs in the ninth.
Without blasting the Red Sox over their horrible 2-8 start, there are a few quick fixes that need to be made now. The Dice-K experiment must end. They should cut ties with him immediately, and put Doubront at the back of the rotation. 2011 is the final year of Dice-K's contract, and after going 33-15 in the first two years, has gone 13-14 with an ERA hovering above 5.00. He averages over 4.5 walks per nine innings, struggles to get through the second inning every game, and is obscenely painful to watch. Doubront pitched well in three starts last year, and at 23 is ready to be given a shot at the five spot in the rotation.
Francona also needs to settle on a lineup. Last year the Red Sox used the most different lineups in baseball, but that was due to injuries. Now, with Pedroia and Youk healthy, and new bats in the lineup, it is time to pick a lineup and stick with it in order to generate some consistency. Crawford would rather not leadoff, and true he doesn't have the best OBP, but he has a .360 OBP over the last two seasons, much better than his career .336 number. Only Ortiz and JD Drew had a higher OBP last year (of the remaining 2010 team), and Crawford simply fits the bill as the best option in the leadoff spot. The 2-3-4 spots are locked down with Pedroia, Gonzalez, and Youkilis, respectively. Ortiz fits the five-hole as a power-hitting lefty, and followed by Cameron, Drew, Salty, and Scutaro, the lineup has a nice lefty/righty pattern until the bottom two.
Aside from the start of the season disaster with the Sox, there are two huge series to look forward to with the Celtics and Bruins. The B's open the first round of the playoffs on Thursday with a matchup against the Canadians, and the Celtics look like they will take on the Knicks in round one. The Bruins-Habs series is intriguing, as the B's went 2-4 against them this year, but outscored Montreal 16-10 and won two of the last three on the season. Hopefully the Bruins can keep their momentum going from the last time the teams faced, when the B's dominated in a 7-0 victory. Thomas was in net for both Bruins victories, and will be key to winning the series. Boston has faced Montreal 4 times in the last ten years, winning only one of those series (they swept them in the first round last year).
The Celtics-Knicks matchup will be an interesting one. They face off Wednesday in their scheduled regular season finale, and will begin their best of seven series in the upcoming week. The two teams last faced in the playoffs during the 1989-1990 season, when the Knicks won the series three games to two. The teams faced off three times this season, and the Celtics won them all. All three were tight matchups, and there is no reason not to expect the same result from the series. However, only the third game featured the current Knick lineup, with Melo and Billups in the mix. But some would argue the Knicks are now worse-off, as they are now without the depth of Gallinari, Chandler, Mozgoz, and Felton. They have gone 13-13 since the trade, winning their last five in a row, but were 28-26 prior to the trade. The deal hasn't transitioned the team far from their .500 record, and unless they can truly exploit the Celtics' lack of center depth, the C's should take the series in 5 games at worst. But if Amare comes out hot and the Celtics continue to play half-heartedly, they are in for a much more interesting series.

American League East Preview

The AL East is easily the most competitive division in baseball. Over the past few years, the top three teams in the East could put together an All-Star roster that could probably beat an entire National League roster. The talent, both bought and home-grown, has only gotten younger and more dynamic. With the Yankees and Red Sox bringing in top-tier free agents, and the Rays and Jays continuing to pump out stud pitchers, the East looks to again be the cream of the crop heading into the 2011 season. Take a look at the image to see the AL East rosters as the season opens, as well as the players who will begin the season either in the minors or hurt, but should make a significant impact as the season progresses (as part of the 40-man roster).
Over the past half decade, the division champion of the AL East has won by 4.6 games, which is tied for third out of the six divisions. Although the AL Central winner has won by 3.5 games and the NL West averages 3.8 games, the AL East has pumped out four wild card births in the past five years. Out of the past 20 playoff contenders in the AL, the East has had 9 representatives, the highest of any division in baseball. In fact, 2006 was the last team a team from the East didn't win the wild card birth (Detroit). The winner of the East has averaged 99 wins since 2006, a full 4 games more than the second place AL West, with 95. Compare this to the NL Central, whose winner averages 89 wins, and it is easy to see the disparity in talent.
In the last decade, the American League World Series team has come from the East seven times, followed by the Central with two. No other division has duplicated this success, especially the Central division from both leagues, who haven't had teams in the Series since 2006 (Detroit and St. Louis). The league MVP awards do not support the power of the East, as they have had just 3 in the past decade. But the last player to win both an MVP and the World Series in the same season was Kirk Gibson with the Dodgers in 1988, which supports the notion that a well-rounded World Series winner is less likely to have an MVP than a "one man show" type team.
With the disparity between the divisions in mind, I only find it necessary to break down this year's AL East, as the other division winners are more-so predictable. In the National League, the winner of the East should again be Philly, led by an unheralded rotation and veteran slugging lineup. The Central generated a surprise with Cincy last year, but they should repeat as Division champs with their stellar young lineup and deep rotation. It also helps that St. Louis will be missing perennial-Cy Young contender Adam Wainwright for the year. The Dodgers will again be the favorite in the West, although they always find a way to lose out to the Rockies or Padres. If San Fran can start hitting earlier than last year, they could look to compete behind Lincecum and Cain. The division should be a four horse race, excluding Arizona, and in the end the Giants staff should propel them to their first division title since 2006. The Wild Card will be Atlanta, led by veterans Brian McCann and Chipper Jones, as well as young stars Jason Heyward, Dan Uggla, and a deep rotation featuring Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe. I would be willing to bet the house on three of those four teams being locks for the playoffs, as the NL is what I'd call inconsistently consistent.
The American League ought to have more surprises in store, as the off-season roster shuffling will provide shifts in power. The Rangers only further improved their lineup, and led by Hamilton and Cruz, they should easily capture their second straight division over the hapless Angels and mediocre A's. The Central is the White Sox or Tigers to lose, which often is the case when the Twins take control. But the Twins, per usual, failed to improve their roster in the offseason, and the Indians are the absolute worst team in baseball. Kansas City traded their ace and will battle for the cellar with Cleveland. Detroit will again start off slow, but should have their typical mid-season burst, and end up in a tight race with the heavy-hitting White Sox. In the end, the experience of the White Sox and deeper rotation will prevail, especially if Edwin Jackson and John Danks pitch like they are capable of. Detroit would have to make a mid-season deal to strengthen their rotation, as it is impossible to see a rotation anchored by Brad Penny and Phil Coke leading the team to a title. Finally, regardless of the winner of the AL East, the Wild Card will come out of that division, as it has all but once since 2003.
And now, the AL East (predicted with full bias):

1. Boston Red Sox (98-64) - The Red Sox had three glaring needs after their sub-par 2010 season. They addressed all three significantly. They needed a true 3/4 hitter, which they acquired in Adrian Gonzalez, who will be an annual MVP candidate. They needed a top-tier outfielder to supplant the 2010 combo of McDonald/Nava/Kalish/Reddick. They signed possibly the most coveted free agent, Carl Crawford, stealing him from would-be suitors LA and Texas. Finally, their bullpen needed a massive upgrade. They accomplished this by replacing almost the entire 2010 pen with Bobby Jenks, Dan Wheeler, Matt Albers, and Dennys Reyes, all newcomers. Only Papelbon and Bard remain, with Wakefield filling the long relief and sixth starter role. If any of their new pen acquisitions falter, they have a struggling Okajima in Pawtucket, as well as Scott Achison, Michael Bowden, Alfredo Aceves, and a plethora of double-A talent. On paper, this is probably the best Boston 25-man roster since 2003/2004, and has the potential to be better. They SHOULD win the AL East, and definitely have the depth and talent to win the World Series. The main question with this team is the rotation. Theo harped the "pitching and defense" mantra last year, which the Red Sox were anything but. They were tops in the league in almost all major offensive categories, and their defense was porous and the pitching struggled. Only Clay and Lester pitched well, and unless Lackey and Beckett can rebound, their lineup will go to waste this year. Beckett claims to be back to full health, and Daisuke should be good for 10 wins at the back of the rotation if he can stay on the field. Felix Doubront and Wake will certainly be called upon to make spot starts, but having 7 certified starters is anything but a problem. The other question the Sox have is at catcher. Varitek will make 40-50 starts, but Salty will be the main battery-mate. The Sox are asking a lot of the young catcher to take on a starting role with a team built to win now. If he can keep runners at bay (unlike Tek), and bat decently, he will do fine in the starting role. Otherwise, the Sox will need to look elsewhere for veteran catching, as Varitek doesn't have the endurance to catch 5 games a week anymore. All-in-all, this team has the talent to win 100 games, and it will be immensely disappointing if they don't AT LEAST earn the wild card birth, let alone win the division.
2. New York Yankees (91-71) - The only major changes the Yankees made were with their bench and bullpen. Jorge will step into a full-time DH role, with Russell Martin taking over the full-time catching duties until Francisco Cervelli returns from his injury. Eric Chavez and Andruw Jones were decent veteran pickups for the bench, but chances are at least one of the two is a roster casualty by mid-May, with Chris Dickerson getting called up for the fifth outfielder role. The Yankees are similar to the Sox in that their main question lies with their starting pitching, but unlike the Red Sox, they do not have certified MLB-caliber starters. After CC and Phil Hughes, AJ Burnett needs to get hot quick, unlike his poor performance in 2010. Ivan Nova gets the chance to be the fourth man right off the bat, which is anyone's guess on how he will perform. Freddy Garcia will begin the season as the fifth starter, with Bartolo Colon in the pen, but look for the Yanks to either make a trade or call up Andrew Brackman to round out the rotation far before the season ends. With Mo closing out games, and newly acquired Rafael Soriano setting him up, the Yankees have little to worry about in their pen. Boone Logan remains their lone lefty, but he sufficed last year and should do the same again. The Yankees certainly have the talent to make another World Series run, but the Red Sox surpassed them talent-wise with their offseason signings and trades. With three MVP caliber players in the middle of the lineup (A-Rod, Cano, Tex), the Yankees will be as tough as ever, but they are only one rotation-injury away from big trouble.
3. Baltimore Orioles (81-81) - As everyone knows, Buck Showalter helped rejuvenate this team towards the end of 2010, and will look to continue his success with a completely revamped lineup. Their lineup consists of a unique blend of youthful talent and veteran presence, as they brought in Derek Lee, Vlad Guerrero, JJ Hardy, and Mark Reynolds to all take on starting positions. Their outfield is one of the youngest, quickest, and highest-potential holding threesome in the game, not to mention their stud catcher Matt Wieters. Their true question will be their pitching, top to bottom. Newly acquired Kevin Gregg has pitched well in the closer role, but only for about a year, and it remains to be seen how he adapts to the American League. The O's also feature alternate closers in Mike Gonzalez and Koji Uehara, and bullpen mainstays Jim Johnson and Jason Berken. Their rotation lacks a true number one, and possibly number two starter. They will start the season with two of their starting pitchers on the DL, as they signed Justin Duchscherer to be their "project", and young ace-in-waiting Brian Matusz will be sidelined for a month to start the season with back soreness. Guthrie, Tillman, Bergesen, Britton, and Arrieta all will have starts where they look brilliant, and also starts where they implode. The O's basically have a rotation of "number threes", meaning guys with ERAs that will hover around 4.00 and close to .500 records. The potential is certainly there, but they are still two or three "big name" free agents away from competing with the Yanks and Sox.
4. Toronto Blue Jays (78-84) - The Blue Jays start off this season where they left off in 2010, decimated by injuries. They begin with ace Brandon Morrow on the DL, as well as newly acquired relief pitchers Octavio Dotel and Frank Francisco. They were able to upgrade their infield by acquiring Yunel Escobar from Atlanta, but failed to find adequate backup outfielders, as they cut Scott Podsednik and Corey Patterson is sidelined. Rajai Davis could help their cause if he can excel on the basepaths, and they have heavy hitters in Adam Lind, Jose Bautista, Aaron Hill, and Travis Snyder. Jose Bautista's monster year came out of nowhere in 2010, and probably won't be replicated. Young catcher JP Arencibia is a potential star behind the plate, and Edwin Encarnacion improves with each season. Top to bottom, they have a formidable lineup, especially if the hot-headed Juan Rivera can produce from the DH spot. The Jays also have a rotation with extremely high potential, led by youngsters Ricky Romero, Kyle Drabek, and Marc Rzepczynski. Brett Cecil is a solid fourth pitcher, and Jesse Litsch will suffice until Morrow returns, forming a very good 1-5. Regardless of injuries, the Jays also have a decently overhauled bullpen. They brought in Jo-Jo Reyes, Carlos Villanueva, and Francisco to give them plenty of veteran arms. Jon Rauch was their big signing for the offseason, and will certainly close out plenty of games, especially with Dotel and Francisco shelved. The Jays are moving closer to becoming a serious threat as opposed to the pesky cellar dweller they have been, but they need a few seasons of experience under their pitcher's belts before they can compete.
5. Tampa Bay Rays (69-93) - How quickly things can change. The Rays groomed their home-grown talent for years to become a World Series contender, but their reign is apparently over. Financial concerns caused them to lose Carl Crawford, Matt Garza, Dan Wheeler, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Joaquin Benoit, and Grant Balfour, all key cogs to their three-year success. Instead, they brought in cheap replacements, all of whom are shells of their former selves. Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, and Felipe Lopez have all experienced obvious success in their careers, but all are at the tail end and can't be counted on to provide consistent help. The Rays have hope with youngsters John Jason at catcher and BJ Upton/Ben Zobrist in the outfield, and Desmond Jennings waiting in the wings, but the team has simply lost too much talent to be taken seriously at this point. Their young rotation remains mostly intact, led by David Price and James Shields. After the top two, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, and Jeremy Hellickson will all be counted on to make 25 or more starts. All three were highly touted, but did not show much success in 2010 and will have to turn a quick 180 to be formidable. With Evan Longoria starting the season on the DL, the team will be missing their leader from the beginning. Look for the Rays to be major sellers at the trade deadline, as they will be up to their usual tricks of spinning off players like Kyle Farnsworth, JP Howell, and James Shields for future pieces to the puzzle. The Rays will most likely return to their losing ways this year, as they await another burst of success a few years down the road.