Every year, rumors swirl around the Patriots regarding their usually low first-round draft pick, and what player they could take. In classic Belichick form, they always seem to pass on the "sexy" picks, the ones that had become household college football names. Does it pan out? Yes. For Pats fans, is the draft boring? Yes. But prior to 2011's draft, four of the Patriots' last six top picks are Pro Bowlers. The only true failure since 2005 is Laurence Maroney, and the jury is still out on Patrick Chung. Logan Mankins, Brandon Meriweather, Jerod Mayo, and Devin McCourty have all contributed in major ways to the success of the team (and yes, it is weird that five of the last six top picks have a last name beginning in M).
Enter draft 2k11. With three picks in the top 33, anyone with half a brain is predicting the Pats draft AT LEAST one legitimate pass-rusher, which was their key weakness last season. But just as they have done so many times, they make one surprising pick or move after another. The details are as followed:
Pick 1 - Round 1 / Pk 17 - Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
- Solder was one of four OT's taken in the first round, second to only Tyron Smith who went to the Cowboys at #9. Although Scouts Inc. ranked Solder as the third-ranked OT, he is easily the largest, and possibly most athletic offense lineman in the draft. At 6'8, 319 pounds, he is 3 inches taller and 15 pounds heavier than the average left tackle in the NFL, and his sub-5.0 forty-yard dash time is highly uncommon. Solder didn't miss a single game in college, and is known for living and breathing football. He was recruited out of Buena Vista High School in Colorado as a first-team all state tight end and defensive end, and ranked as the number eight high school prospect in the state. After moving to tackle the spring before his redshirt-sophomore season, Solder made 36 straight starts, and finished his illustrious college career as a top-3 finalist for the Outland Trophy.
- What does Solder's selection by New England foreshadow for the 2011 team? Unfortunately, it almost certainly spells the end to the Matt Light-era. At 32 years old, Light will likely be a well sought-after commodity on the free agent market, and with a future stud LT in hand, the Pats won't match any high contract offers by other teams. Solder virtually completes the Patriots' offensive line overhaul, which includes Sebastian Vollmer; and if they can get him on-board, Logan Mankins as well. Look for Solder to be an immediate starter, with Pro Bowl written all over him.
Pick 2 - Rd 2 / Pk 33 - Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia
- The only reason Dowling wasn't selected in the mid-first round was because he missed all but five games his senior year with knee and hamstring issues, and then broke his ankle. Aside from that, he missed one game in his first three seasons, and at almost 6'2, 200 pounds, is an ideal physical coverage cornerback. He possesses the size to cover Anquan Boldin/Brandon Marshall types, and the strength to blow up outside run plays that have killed the Patriots by the likes of CJ Spiller and LT. Scouts Inc. ranked Dowling as the #5 CB in the draft, but after the obvious consensus number one (Patrick Peterson), the jury is out on who the most successful in the group of Jimmy Smith (Ravens), Brandon Harris (Texans), Prince Amukamara (Giants), and Dowling will be. Known as an extremely hard worker and team leader, Dowling spent a year at Hargrave Military Academy after high school, playing DB and WR, as well as basketball and track. He is an overall outstanding athlete, and scouts compare him to Ike Taylor of the Steelers
- The Patriots will enter 2011 with Leigh Bodden and Devin McCourty as the solidified starters, but Dowling is an excellent candidate to take over the nickel-back role. Darius Butler and Kyle Arrington have been anything but reliable, and if Dowling can improve on his explosiveness, he will be a huge addition to a defense that lacks effective outside linebackers. His outside presence will allow the Patriots to overload one side of the offensive line in blitz schemes, instead of relying on OLB's for flat coverage. Dowling also provides much-needed injury depth to a team that has used Troy Brown, Jonathan Wilhite, Terrence Wheatley, Shawn Springs, Mike Richardson, and Lewis Sanders as cornerbacks in the past few years. Barring any injuries to Dowling or the two starters, he should be good for 40+ tackles, as well as a good amount of pass break-ups.
Pick 3 - Rd 2 / Pk 56 - Shane Vereen, RB, California
- This pick is a head-scratcher. Vereen is a quick, non-overpowering tailback with excellent pass-catching ability, much like Kevin Faulk and Danny Woodhead. He has a terrific head on his shoulders, fitting the Patriot pedigree, and has a nose for the end zone, scoring 18 touchdowns in his senior campaign. Scouts Inc. ranked him as the #9 running back in the draft, with his biggest weaknesses being lack of strength and agility. He has weak acceleration, but very fast top-end speed, running the 40-yard dash in 4.5 seconds at the combine. His skill set certainly fits the Patriots' usual game-plan, but doesn't exactly fit the team's needs as much as other available backs. The Patriots could have drafted every running back in the draft, as none had been taken when they traded the 28th overall pick to the Saints who took Mark Ingram. The Patriots either know something that no one else does about this kid, or they made an uncharacteristic reach for a player that probably would've been available in the third round.
- As hard as it is to imagine, Shane Vereen could very well be Kevin Faulk's replacement. They are almost identical in size and skill sets. Faulk is coming off a season lost to a torn ACL, and may have to fight for a contract in training camp. But with the roster as it stands now, Green-Ellis/Woodhead/Vereen look like they will play along the lines of a 40/40/20 percentage split. The Patriots like to have different personal to utilize depending on the defenses they are facing, and have no problem giving one of their backs the bulk of plays one week, and not using him at all the next week. They have featured four different leading rushers in the last five seasons, and their running back depth chart is as unpredictable as they come. Only Belichick really knows how much Vereen will see the field.
Pick 4 - Rd 3 / Pk 73 - Stevan Ridley, RB, LSU
- Although most "experts" may disagree, Ridley makes more sense than Vereen. He is a bruiser that measures just under six feet, and weighs 225 pounds. He ran a 4.66 at the combine, and is the epitome of a downhill, up the middle runner. Although he is on the slower end and does not possess any pass-catching talent, he can be nearly impossible to bring down, much like Brandon Jacobs. His size offers the potential of being a good pass blocker, but he has a lot to work on in that aspect of the game. Much like the parallel between Vereen and Faulk, Ridley looks a lot like Sammy Morris in terms of size and skill set. Ridley is a goal line beast, and will see his fair share of short yardage carries in 2011.
- Even for a team that takes the ultimate running back by committee approach, drafting two backs results in an extremely overcrowded Patriot backfield. Fred Taylor, Morris, and Faulk are all aging free agents, and it would be a surprise if more than one (if any) of the three are brought back. Ridley will play the bruiser/fullback role for the Patriots, and should be heavily utilized on special teams. Although Ridley graded out as a much later draft selection, he definitely fits the Patriots' needs.
Pick 5 - Rd 3 / Pk 74 - Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
- Apparently, not many teams were high on Mallett. Scouts Inc.'s #6 ranked QB fell from an early first-round grade all the way to the third-round. The knock on Mallett is his off-field issues, and an extreme lack of speed. Teams were obviously concerned about his lack of mobility and decision making, resulting in the likes of Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, and Christian Ponder coming off the board before him. However, it is impossible for me to not be bias about Mallett. He was hands down my favorite college football player over the last few seasons, and is a proven winner. There is no doubt that his personal issues will "disappear" under the tutelage of Brady and Belichick. His speed is of zero concern, especially in an offense that heavily relies on the pass. Belichick knows EXACTLY how to make late round QB steals, and this pick epitomizes that concept. Mallett has experienced pro-style offenses at both Michigan and Arkansas, and has an absolute cannon of an arm. He has the vision and intangibles to be a very successful NFL QB, and if the plan is to groom him under Brady, Patriots fans should feel very comfortable about the post-Brady future that looms.
- Mallett hopefully won't see the field this season unless it is in a blowout, because otherwise that would mean Brady is out. Mallett's career will head one of two ways. He will either be showcased in the preseason, and eventually spun for draft picks to a needy team, or will take the reigns from Brady in 2015. Brady stated last year he would like to play another ten years, but in today's NFL that is unrealistic and is much more likely he will retire prior to an immense drop off (Brett Favre style). Either way, Big Tex IS GOING TO BE a solid NFL QB in the future.
Pick 6 - Rd 5 / Pk 138 - Marcus Cannon, OL, TCU
- Cannon fell to the fifth round for just one reason: he has non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Fortunately, it is an extremely treatable form of cancer, with a better than 90% success rate in recovery. This wasn't discovered until his combine physical, and prior to the diagnosis would've easily been a Day 1 OT pick. Cannon is gigantic and quick for his 6'5, 358 pound frame. He has kept his nose clean and with work could become a consistent NFL starter. With his conditioning kept in-check and work on his awareness, Cannon could become a Pro Bowl-caliber tackle because of his size and athleticism.
- Marcus Cannon is much like the Patriots' selection of Sebastian Vollmer two years ago. Both possess monstrous size, and underdeveloped, raw talent. Dante Scarnecchia is one of the best at progressing and developing offensive lineman, and it is exciting to think of what he could make the likes of Solder and Cannon into. As Stephan Neal has retired, and questions surround Mankins' contract and Nick Kaczur's injuries, the Patriots are doing all they can to fill their OL depth. They now have 11 offensive lineman 28 years old or under heading into 2011, and their continued success relies heavily on the protection of Brady. Once Cannon is cancer-free, which should be prior to the start of the season, he will look to show the rest of the league just how much they underestimated his abilities.
Pick 7 - Rd 5 / Pk 159 - Lee Smith, TE, Marshall
- Lee Smith and Marshall were a perfect fit for each other. Smith was dismissed from Tennessee his freshman year after an arrest for a DUI, only to thrive as a student athlete at Marshall. He was a team leader and captain, and as relentless and tough on the field as they come. He will be utilized by the Patriots exactly as he was at Marshall, getting very few looks in the passing game, but a key cog as a blocker. The Patriots are all set as far as pass-catching tight ends go, so Lee fits in with the team well as the heir-apparent to Alge Crumpler in the TE3 role.
Pick 8 - Rd 6 / Pk 194 - Markell Carter, LB, Central Arkansas
- Carter has good size at 6-4, 248 pounds, and will work to play OLB for the Patriots. He was a defensive end in college, and tied for third on the team with 52 tackles his senior year. What impressed scouts, and the reason the Patriots took him, was his 19 tackles for a loss in the 2010 season. He also had 5.5 sacks and two forced fumbles, one of which he brought back for a TD. The Patriots will do their best to groom him into a pass-rushing specialist, and he will surely see the field on special teams somewhere down the road.
Pick 9 - Rd 7 / Pk 219 - Malcolm Williams, DB, TCU
- Williams was taken strictly for special teams depth, and may or may not make the roster. He played two seasons at TCU, recording 22 total tackles, 16 of which came on special teams. He will either shine on kickoffs and punts during the preseason, or will be an early roster casualty.
