The AL East is easily the most competitive division in baseball. Over the past few years, the top three teams in the East could put together an All-Star roster that could probably beat an entire National League roster. The talent, both bought and home-grown, has only gotten younger and more dynamic. With the Yankees and Red Sox bringing in top-tier free agents, and the Rays and Jays continuing to pump out stud pitchers, the East looks to again be the cream of the crop heading into the 2011 season. Take a look at the image to see the AL East rosters as the season opens, as well as the players who will begin the season either in the minors or hurt, but should make a significant impact as the season progresses (as part of the 40-man roster).
Over the past half decade, the division champion of the AL East has won by 4.6 games, which is tied for third out of the six divisions. Although the AL Central winner has won by 3.5 games and the NL West averages 3.8 games, the AL East has pumped out four wild card births in the past five years. Out of the past 20 playoff contenders in the AL, the East has had 9 representatives, the highest of any division in baseball. In fact, 2006 was the last team a team from the East didn't win the wild card birth (Detroit). The winner of the East has averaged 99 wins since 2006, a full 4 games more than the second place AL West, with 95. Compare this to the NL Central, whose winner averages 89 wins, and it is easy to see the disparity in talent.
In the last decade, the American League World Series team has come from the East seven times, followed by the Central with two. No other division has duplicated this success, especially the Central division from both leagues, who haven't had teams in the Series since 2006 (Detroit and St. Louis). The league MVP awards do not support the power of the East, as they have had just 3 in the past decade. But the last player to win both an MVP and the World Series in the same season was Kirk Gibson with the Dodgers in 1988, which supports the notion that a well-rounded World Series winner is less likely to have an MVP than a "one man show" type team.
With the disparity between the divisions in mind, I only find it necessary to break down this year's AL East, as the other division winners are more-so predictable. In the National League, the winner of the East should again be Philly, led by an unheralded rotation and veteran slugging lineup. The Central generated a surprise with Cincy last year, but they should repeat as Division champs with their stellar young lineup and deep rotation. It also helps that St. Louis will be missing perennial-Cy Young contender Adam Wainwright for the year. The Dodgers will again be the favorite in the West, although they always find a way to lose out to the Rockies or Padres. If San Fran can start hitting earlier than last year, they could look to compete behind Lincecum and Cain. The division should be a four horse race, excluding Arizona, and in the end the Giants staff should propel them to their first division title since 2006. The Wild Card will be Atlanta, led by veterans Brian McCann and Chipper Jones, as well as young stars Jason Heyward, Dan Uggla, and a deep rotation featuring Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe. I would be willing to bet the house on three of those four teams being locks for the playoffs, as the NL is what I'd call inconsistently consistent.
The American League ought to have more surprises in store, as the off-season roster shuffling will provide shifts in power. The Rangers only further improved their lineup, and led by Hamilton and Cruz, they should easily capture their second straight division over the hapless Angels and mediocre A's. The Central is the White Sox or Tigers to lose, which often is the case when the Twins take control. But the Twins, per usual, failed to improve their roster in the offseason, and the Indians are the absolute worst team in baseball. Kansas City traded their ace and will battle for the cellar with Cleveland. Detroit will again start off slow, but should have their typical mid-season burst, and end up in a tight race with the heavy-hitting White Sox. In the end, the experience of the White Sox and deeper rotation will prevail, especially if Edwin Jackson and John Danks pitch like they are capable of. Detroit would have to make a mid-season deal to strengthen their rotation, as it is impossible to see a rotation anchored by Brad Penny and Phil Coke leading the team to a title. Finally, regardless of the winner of the AL East, the Wild Card will come out of that division, as it has all but once since 2003.
And now, the AL East (predicted with full bias):
- Boston Red Sox (98-64) - The Red Sox had three glaring needs after their sub-par 2010 season. They addressed all three significantly. They needed a true 3/4 hitter, which they acquired in Adrian Gonzalez, who will be an annual MVP candidate. They needed a top-tier outfielder to supplant the 2010 combo of McDonald/Nava/Kalish/Reddick. They signed possibly the most coveted free agent, Carl Crawford, stealing him from would-be suitors LA and Texas. Finally, their bullpen needed a massive upgrade. They accomplished this by replacing almost the entire 2010 pen with Bobby Jenks, Dan Wheeler, Matt Albers, and Dennys Reyes, all newcomers. Only Papelbon and Bard remain, with Wakefield filling the long relief and sixth starter role. If any of their new pen acquisitions falter, they have a struggling Okajima in Pawtucket, as well as Scott Achison, Michael Bowden, Alfredo Aceves, and a plethora of double-A talent. On paper, this is probably the best Boston 25-man roster since 2003/2004, and has the potential to be better. They SHOULD win the AL East, and definitely have the depth and talent to win the World Series. The main question with this team is the rotation. Theo harped the "pitching and defense" mantra last year, which the Red Sox were anything but. They were tops in the league in almost all major offensive categories, and their defense was porous and the pitching struggled. Only Clay and Lester pitched well, and unless Lackey and Beckett can rebound, their lineup will go to waste this year. Beckett claims to be back to full health, and Daisuke should be good for 10 wins at the back of the rotation if he can stay on the field. Felix Doubront and Wake will certainly be called upon to make spot starts, but having 7 certified starters is anything but a problem. The other question the Sox have is at catcher. Varitek will make 40-50 starts, but Salty will be the main battery-mate. The Sox are asking a lot of the young catcher to take on a starting role with a team built to win now. If he can keep runners at bay (unlike Tek), and bat decently, he will do fine in the starting role. Otherwise, the Sox will need to look elsewhere for veteran catching, as Varitek doesn't have the endurance to catch 5 games a week anymore. All-in-all, this team has the talent to win 100 games, and it will be immensely disappointing if they don't AT LEAST earn the wild card birth, let alone win the division.
- New York Yankees (91-71) - The only major changes the Yankees made were with their bench and bullpen. Jorge will step into a full-time DH role, with Russell Martin taking over the full-time catching duties until Francisco Cervelli returns from his injury. Eric Chavez and Andruw Jones were decent veteran pickups for the bench, but chances are at least one of the two is a roster casualty by mid-May, with Chris Dickerson getting called up for the fifth outfielder role. The Yankees are similar to the Sox in that their main question lies with their starting pitching, but unlike the Red Sox, they do not have certified MLB-caliber starters. After CC and Phil Hughes, AJ Burnett needs to get hot quick, unlike his poor performance in 2010. Ivan Nova gets the chance to be the fourth man right off the bat, which is anyone's guess on how he will perform. Freddy Garcia will begin the season as the fifth starter, with Bartolo Colon in the pen, but look for the Yanks to either make a trade or call up Andrew Brackman to round out the rotation far before the season ends. With Mo closing out games, and newly acquired Rafael Soriano setting him up, the Yankees have little to worry about in their pen. Boone Logan remains their lone lefty, but he sufficed last year and should do the same again. The Yankees certainly have the talent to make another World Series run, but the Red Sox surpassed them talent-wise with their offseason signings and trades. With three MVP caliber players in the middle of the lineup (A-Rod, Cano, Tex), the Yankees will be as tough as ever, but they are only one rotation-injury away from big trouble.
- Baltimore Orioles (81-81) - As everyone knows, Buck Showalter helped rejuvenate this team towards the end of 2010, and will look to continue his success with a completely revamped lineup. Their lineup consists of a unique blend of youthful talent and veteran presence, as they brought in Derek Lee, Vlad Guerrero, JJ Hardy, and Mark Reynolds to all take on starting positions. Their outfield is one of the youngest, quickest, and highest-potential holding threesome in the game, not to mention their stud catcher Matt Wieters. Their true question will be their pitching, top to bottom. Newly acquired Kevin Gregg has pitched well in the closer role, but only for about a year, and it remains to be seen how he adapts to the American League. The O's also feature alternate closers in Mike Gonzalez and Koji Uehara, and bullpen mainstays Jim Johnson and Jason Berken. Their rotation lacks a true number one, and possibly number two starter. They will start the season with two of their starting pitchers on the DL, as they signed Justin Duchscherer to be their "project", and young ace-in-waiting Brian Matusz will be sidelined for a month to start the season with back soreness. Guthrie, Tillman, Bergesen, Britton, and Arrieta all will have starts where they look brilliant, and also starts where they implode. The O's basically have a rotation of "number threes", meaning guys with ERAs that will hover around 4.00 and close to .500 records. The potential is certainly there, but they are still two or three "big name" free agents away from competing with the Yanks and Sox.
- Toronto Blue Jays (78-84) - The Blue Jays start off this season where they left off in 2010, decimated by injuries. They begin with ace Brandon Morrow on the DL, as well as newly acquired relief pitchers Octavio Dotel and Frank Francisco. They were able to upgrade their infield by acquiring Yunel Escobar from Atlanta, but failed to find adequate backup outfielders, as they cut Scott Podsednik and Corey Patterson is sidelined. Rajai Davis could help their cause if he can excel on the basepaths, and they have heavy hitters in Adam Lind, Jose Bautista, Aaron Hill, and Travis Snyder. Jose Bautista's monster year came out of nowhere in 2010, and probably won't be replicated. Young catcher JP Arencibia is a potential star behind the plate, and Edwin Encarnacion improves with each season. Top to bottom, they have a formidable lineup, especially if the hot-headed Juan Rivera can produce from the DH spot. The Jays also have a rotation with extremely high potential, led by youngsters Ricky Romero, Kyle Drabek, and Marc Rzepczynski. Brett Cecil is a solid fourth pitcher, and Jesse Litsch will suffice until Morrow returns, forming a very good 1-5. Regardless of injuries, the Jays also have a decently overhauled bullpen. They brought in Jo-Jo Reyes, Carlos Villanueva, and Francisco to give them plenty of veteran arms. Jon Rauch was their big signing for the offseason, and will certainly close out plenty of games, especially with Dotel and Francisco shelved. The Jays are moving closer to becoming a serious threat as opposed to the pesky cellar dweller they have been, but they need a few seasons of experience under their pitcher's belts before they can compete.
- Tampa Bay Rays (69-93) - How quickly things can change. The Rays groomed their home-grown talent for years to become a World Series contender, but their reign is apparently over. Financial concerns caused them to lose Carl Crawford, Matt Garza, Dan Wheeler, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Joaquin Benoit, and Grant Balfour, all key cogs to their three-year success. Instead, they brought in cheap replacements, all of whom are shells of their former selves. Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, and Felipe Lopez have all experienced obvious success in their careers, but all are at the tail end and can't be counted on to provide consistent help. The Rays have hope with youngsters John Jason at catcher and BJ Upton/Ben Zobrist in the outfield, and Desmond Jennings waiting in the wings, but the team has simply lost too much talent to be taken seriously at this point. Their young rotation remains mostly intact, led by David Price and James Shields. After the top two, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, and Jeremy Hellickson will all be counted on to make 25 or more starts. All three were highly touted, but did not show much success in 2010 and will have to turn a quick 180 to be formidable. With Evan Longoria starting the season on the DL, the team will be missing their leader from the beginning. Look for the Rays to be major sellers at the trade deadline, as they will be up to their usual tricks of spinning off players like Kyle Farnsworth, JP Howell, and James Shields for future pieces to the puzzle. The Rays will most likely return to their losing ways this year, as they await another burst of success a few years down the road.
