Monday, February 28, 2011

Perk Up, The Deadline Was A Success


One of the few reasons the NBA can be an exciting league at times is because of its ever-active trade deadline. Unlike the NFL, the NBA sees a flurry of trades leading up to the final minute of the deadline, and this year was no exception. In less than 72 hours, there were 13 trades involving 19 teams and a total of 39 players changing unis, not including 3 others who were waived and one free agent signing. Even if those numbers may look insignificant, to put it into perspective, the NBA has about 360 active players on any given day. That means that approximately 11% of the league's players were moved, almost the equivalent to an entire NFL team.
The NBA trade deadline also leads to the annual cluster-fuck that is the NBA draft. Thirteen draft picks, ranging from 2011 to 2014, were included in deals. What is amusing is that the NBA draft is only 2 rounds, so when you have teams like the Knicks dealing a first rounder and two second rounders, you realize that unless they make other deals, they won't have any draft picks in the foreseeable future. Fortunately for teams that fall in this genre, the 2011 draft looks like one of the least talented of the last decade.
With big name players like Carmelo Anthony, Deron Williams, Chauncy Billups, Aaron Brooks, and Carl Landry, it is easy to lose sight of the "smaller deals", such as the two that Boston made. Of course to Celts fans, trading Kendrick Perkins was nothing short of astonishing, but Danny Ainge surely has shaped the team for an energetic playoff run as well as infused more youth into an aging roster. So without further indulging in the specifics, let's break it down...

  • Trade 1 - Celtics trade C Kendrick Perkins and G Nate Robinson to OKC Thunder for F Jeff Green, C Nenad Kristic, a 2012 1st-round pick, and cash.
  • What the Celtics gain - Although it is harped on much too often, the Celtics Big 3 are getting up there in years, and resting Pierce and Garnett heading into the playoffs will be a big priority for Doc. Jeff Green is a 24 year old forward that can play both the 3 and the 4, spelling two-thirds of the Celts' trio. Green is remembered as the Celtics trade piece that ultimately brought Ray Allen to Boston four years ago, when the Thunder were in Seattle. Boston ranks 29th in rebounding in the league, but Green should boost their board-presence with his 5.5 RPG to go along with his 15 PPG. As the third option behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in OKC, Green is vastly underrated, and if he is locked up heading into an off-season where he will be a RFA, could eventually take over for Pierce when 34 is hoisted to the rafters. Kristic is a 7-footer who will temporarily start at center, and he brings both experience and better ball handling to the C's at the 5. Unlike Perk, he is not injury prone and should bring some stability to center for the C's for the first time since banner 17. The 1st-round pick is actually the Clippers pick, and is top-10 protected through the 2016-2017 season, meaning that it will more than likely be in the early 20's when they can use it.
  • What the Celtics lose - Kendrick Perkins is undoubtedly one of the best defensive centers in the game. He was the reason the C's upset the Magic in last year's Eastern Conference Finals, as he is one of the few players in the league that can keep Dwight Howard in check. Losing Perkins to a knee injury in Game 6 of the Finals last year is probably the reason the Celtics lost game 7, as they were dominated down low without their big man, but they were able to go 33-10 without him to start the season in 2011. Once he returned, the Celtics went 8-4, but Perkins only led the team in rebounding twice, and his looming free-agency was reason enough to cut ties with the fan favorite earlier than expected. The C's will now be forced to rely on Kristic, a hobbled Shaq, and the inexperienced Chris Johnson at center, as well as using KG at the 5 against smaller lineups. Ultimately, if rumors of bringing in Troy Murphy don't pan out, the C's will probably have to get creative when facing the NBA's elite big men. Trading little-used Nate Robinson will have a much less significant impact, as he had struggled this season and the Celtics now have Delonte West returning from a broken hand. Nate was somewhat of a one-dimensional role player who plays weak defense and hoists up ill-advised shots too often. With a healthy Rondo and Ray Allen being backed by West and Von Wafer, the C's are an injury away from a disaster, but can definitely get by with their elite tandem at guard.
  • Trade 2 - Celtics trade C Semih Erden and F Luke Harangody to Cavs for 2013 second-round pick
  • What the Celtics gain - The Cavs are far and away the worst team in basketball. They don't have the makings of a team that can "turn-it-around" anytime soon, so their 2013 pick is a safe bet to be in the top 5 of the second round two years from now. The Celtics can use the pick to fill out their roster, or use it as a future trade chip. Harangody was a non-factor and averaged about 2 PPG in 28 appearances. Jeff Green is a monstrous upgrade for a team that really only had one substantial backup forward (Baby) on it's bench. Erden's trade is a bit puzzling, as Boston lacks centers, but aside from a handful of breakout games during the first half of the season, he didn't contribute much in terms of rebounding and the C's figured they could get by without him. Erden often seemed lost on the court and was only needed for defense, which is one of the weaker parts of his game. If Shaq can stay healthy and the C's bring in a Troy Murphy-type player, Erden will forever remain an afterthought.
  • What the Celtics lose - Again, they lose the valuable center depth that has haunted them for too long now. Jermaine O'Neal is a gigantic vagina and probably won't play again this year, and looking at the C's depth chart at center is comparable to looking at a patient list in the geriatrics ward at Mass General. The Celtics threw out the little depth they had at center, and without bringing in a veteran, they are a Garnett-injury away from a first-round playoff oust. But by putting all of their eggs in the Jeff Green-basket, they are taking the all out approach, and time will tell if it pans out.
In the grand scheme of things, I like what the Celtics did. They infused youth and energy by bringing in Kristic and Green, and they realized that although they made plenty of personnel changes from last year, their roster was very similar and would probably tire in the final months of the season. With Rondo, Allen, Garnett, Pierce, and Green, they have 5 top-NBA talents on the roster, which is plenty to beat the Bucks and Bobcats of the league. Ultimately their fate will be decided on team defense, and the ability to guard a Melo or LeBron or Boozer with one player while focusing on a team approach to guarding the Amare's and Howard's of the NBA. The Celtics matchup tremendously with the Heat, Bulls, Spurs, and Mavericks, but could face roadblocks against larger teams like the Lakers or Orlando. They will have to hope that someone else can do their dirty work come playoff time and knockout the team's with elite centers.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Monday Morning Quarterback (For Baseball)


Before diving into predictions for this year's Red Sox newcomers, I wanted to look back at last year's lack-luster haul and evaluate the predictions. This includes players from both the Yankees and Red Sox. The information directly below each player is last year's assumptions, and below that is what actually happened.

Yankee Notable Acquisitions

- Curtis Granderson, CF, #14 - Granderson is a six-year ex-Tiger outfielder with a good combination of speed and power at the plate. He hit a career-high 30 home runs to go with his 20 stolen bases in 160 games last year. He strikes out a ton, and was moved up and down the order from leadoff all the way to ninth by Jim Leyland in Detroit. As only the sixth member of the 20-20-20 club in baseball (with the likes of Willy Mays and George Brett), he has the ability to be an excellent leadoff hitter in the stacked Yankee lineup if he can get on base. But his .327 on base percentage in 2009 was the lowest of career, as well as his .249 batting average. But Derek Jeter will stay in the cleanup role for now, and Granderson will probably take advantage of the short right field deck at Yankee stadium and utilize his lefty power in the three hole. Time will tell if he can pick up his average, and if he does, he is another scary element to the already dynamic Yankee lineup. And Granderson will certainly be seeing plenty of hittable pitches.
Projected Line: .260 BA, 115 R, 32 HR, 90 RBI, 15 SB

ACTUAL RESULT: Granderson's number took a dip, mainly because he missed 26 games with minor injuries. He ended up batting .247, or .013 lower then predicted, and only scored 76 runs. He hit 24 HRs, drove in 67, and stole 12 bases, which projects out to almost exactly what I predicted if you account for the missed games. He managed to cut down his strikeout total to 116, but still doesn't put up a high enough OBP to bat leadoff, which is why Girardi bats him 8th. Granderson turns 30 this March, and the Yankees will need him to get on base more and become the leadoff hitter that they lack, as Derek Jeter is a far cry from an ideal leadoff hitter at this point in his career.

- Randy Winn, LF, #22 - Winn is 35 years old and his numbers plummeted last year. Replacing Johnny Damon in left field won't be at all difficult with his glove, but at the plate is a different story. Winn will most likely platoon with youngster Brett Gardner and probably be one of Girardi's first off the bench, but not too much is expected from Winn except his veteran presence and leadership. Winn should be able to hit around his career BA of .286, but no one is expecting him to hit more than ten HRs or contribute with a significant number of RBIs. He will hit at or near the bottom of the lineup, but is playing in a better setting hitting-wise then San Francisco's AT&T Park. The jury is out on how he will contribute, as he could be anywhere from a complete flop and release candidate to a solidly contributing veteran.
Projected Line: .275 BA, 70 R, 6 HR, 47 RBI, 16 SB

ACTUAL RESULT: The Yankees ended up releasing Winn after 29 games. As their fifth outfielder, he hit .213 with just 1 HR and 8 RBIs in 61 at bats. He only stole one base, and ultimately showed that his playing days are over. The Cardinals ended up signing him for their last 87 games, and he finished the season with a .239 average to go with 4 HRs, 25 RBIs, 6 swipes, and a .981 fielding %. As low as my predicted numbers were for him, I gave him TOO much credit. Winn should find himself out of baseball this year or the next, as even a move to the National League didn't help him improve his numbers.

- Nick Johnson, 1B/DH, #26 - Johnson returns to the Bronx after a seven-year hiatus to DH and be Teixiera's backup at first. His last good season at the plate dates back to 2006, but batting lefty at Yankee stadium and being surrounded by All-Star caliber hitters, he could return to a 20 HR, 80 RBI player batting in the two spot. He is a tremendous glove off the bench, and with a weakening quality of designated hitters in the American League, he could be in line for his first All-Star appearance this year.
Projected Line: .280 BA, 80 R, 21 HR, 77 RBI, 2 SB

ACTUAL RESULT: Johnson limped into the beginning of the season, posting a .167 average with just 2 jacks and 8 ribbis. He had season ending wrist surgery in May, and Yankees declined his option for 2011, leaving him without a home this year. The jury is out on whether Johnson can find another job and return to 2009 form. His wrist obviously ailed him through the start of last year, and ended his campaign before the Yankees could get a feel for him. With Nick Swisher, Tex, and Jorge, Johnson wouldn't have had a place on the 2011 roster anyways.

- Javier Vazquez, SP, #31 - Also returning to New York after six years with three other teams, Vazquez will be looking to convert his success with the Braves into being an above average number three starter behind Sabathia and Burnett. True, Javy won 14 games and struck out 150 in his lone season with the Yankees in 2004, but he finished a horrific second half of the season with a 4.91 ERA and was shelled in the playoffs, allowing the Red Sox to make the most historic World Series run in the history of the sport. Vazquez will be 34 in July, and not counting his 2007 season with the White Sox, he has pitched poorly in the American League to date. He will strike out around 200 batters, but history suggests that his ERA will shoot up one to 1.5 points from last years career-low of 2.87. Vazquez will receive the best run support of his career, but at the expense of his individual statistics. The bottom line is that he will win games, and although they may not be pretty, he probably is satisfied with sacrificing personal accomplishment for a World Series shot.
Projected Line: 32 GS, 16-9 WL, 208 K, 28 HRA, 4.04 ERA

ACTUAL RESULT: Vasquez was a failure in New York, and was moved to the bullpen in August. He was then left off of the postseason roster, ending his second stint with the Yankees. In 26 starts, Vasquez went 10-10 with a 5.32 ERA, and proved that he is nothing but a National League pitcher. His strikeout total dipped to its lowest since 1999, and he allowed almost a hit per inning. Vasquez has lost the zip on his fastball, and is struggling to hit 88+ in Marlins camp this spring. A power pitcher who relies on ball movement, Vasquez has very little time left in his career at 34 years old. Playing in the NL East may rejuvenate his career, but it is safe to say the Yankees struck out when they sent Melky Cabrera to Atlanta for him.

Red Sox Notable Acquisitions

- Adrian Beltre, 3B, #29 - Beltre's main contribution with this team will be his glove. As a hot corner upgrade over Lowell, Beltre will contribute to the defensive philosophy that Theo Epstein has instill in the ball club. As for his bat, no one really knows what purpose he will serve. Could he post the .334-48-121 line he put up in 2004 with the Dodgers? Certainly not. But excluding last year's injury marred season, Beltre certainly hits better in contract years, and this could be one of them. In his best season with Seattle two seasons ago, Beltre hit .276 with 26 dingers and 99 RBIs. Fenway is a better hitter's park then Safeco Field, and if Beltre can play a full season hitting seventh in the lineup, his Gold Glove fielding should be a key cog to this team's success.
Projected Line: .275 BA, 65 R, 22 HR, 74 RBI, 9 SB

ACTUAL RESULT: After an underachieving 5 years in Seattle, a one year stint in Boston was just what the doctor ordered for Beltre. On a team devastated by injuries, he was a mainstay at third base, hitting .321 with 28 HRs and 102 RBIs, and was an MVP contender for much of the season. Beltre abused the Green Monster, hitting 49 doubles, and posted his overall second best season of his career. Beltre seems to follow a trend of posting spectacular seasons in contract years, as he did in LA in 2004. The Red Sox offered him an extension, but he followed the money to Texas, where he is already expected to miss the first month with a strained calf. Maybe Theo knew Beltre couldn't sustain those numbers, or maybe it was the luck of the draw that he ended up elsewhere. But in the end, Red Sox fans will be MUCH more excited about Youk at third and Adrian Gonzalez at first.

- Bill Hall, 2B/3B/OF, #22 - Billy-boy peaked in 2006 with Milwaukee, posting a .270-35-85 line as the primary shortstop for the Brew Crew. It has all been downhill since, leading to his release last season and picking up right where he left off with Seattle. His Mendoza-line batting average and huge strikeout rate would be quite the turn-off, but Hall will be utilized only as a utility player this year. He is the 2010 version of Alex Cora, but a poor man's version. He can't run, he can't hit, but he flashes the glove and will be either a late inning option off the bench or a solid contributor in Pawtucket this year.
Projected Line: .215 BA, 31 R, 8 HR, 22 RBI, 5 SB

ACTUAL RESULT: Hall ended up as one of the best bats off the bench in baseball, hitting 18 homeruns and driving in 46 in only 344 at bats. Because the Sox were hit with the injury bug, he ended up playing in 120 games, probably twice as many as was expected. He managed to bat .247, which is a little bit below his career average, but better then the .201 he hit in 2009 with the Brewers and Mariners. Hall still strikes out way too much, he whiffed 104 times in 2010, which was about a third of his plate appearances. Theo expressed interest in bringing him back, but he ended up signing a one-year, $3.25 million contract with Houston where he will start at second base.

- Mike Cameron, CF, #23 - Again, a defensive signing, much to the chagrin of Ellsbury, Cameron will man center field and bat eighth for the Sox. This is Cameron's seventh team in 15 years, but he has been one of the most consistent players in baseball in that time. Almost every season of his career is on par with his season average, and with no apparent sign of decline, he should field with excellence and have an arm unseen in center at Fenway in a long time. His upside far outweighs the possible negatives, and even at 37 years young he should certainly be one of the best eight-spot hitters in baseball. He will have ample opportunity to solidify the bottom of the lineup, and could rise over the course of the season if others falter. But if he doesn't succeed, he will be chased out of Boston quickly, primarily because he is black ;) .
Projected Line: .250 BA, 75 R, 23 HR, 76 RBI, 11 SB

ACTUAL RESULT: As I said before the season started, the Cameron signing was a hail mary by Theo. Cameron missed all but 48 games with a nagging groin injury, but played well when he could get on the field. He hit .259 with 4 HRs and 15 RBIs, and played excellently in the field (as expected). As he enters the final year of the two-year, $20 million deal he signed with Boston, he will begin the season as the team's fourth outfielder. Jacoby will start in center again, but it remains to be seen if JD and Ellsbury can stay healthy. After Cameron, the Sox have Kalish and Reddick, so if they could find a team to take Cameron, they would gladly deal him. But because he is in the last year of his deal, he doesn't necessarily hurt to have as insurance, and Terry will find plenty of time to get him involved in 2011.

- Jeremy Hermida, RF, #32 - The Marlins #1 overall draft pick in 2002 has yet to live up to his lofty expectations, but Theo acquired him to be the fourth outfielder on this squad. Hermida is everything a manager could want out his of first off the bench. He is only 26, bats lefty, has decent power, and is very versatile. With JD Drew's injury history and Mike Cameron's age, it is safe to say Hermida will see a good amount of playing time. He is a big upgrade over Rocco Baldelli, and not too many Sox fans would be let down if (and when) he starts over an injured JD Drew.
Projected Line: .260 BA, 40 R, 12 HR, 45 RBI, 3 SB

ACTUAL RESULT: So much for turning it around. Hermida was designated after 52 disasterous games, batting .203 with just 5 jacks and 27 RBIs in 158 at bats with Boston. Thankfully, Darnell McDonald stepped up and took the role of the fill-in outfielder, so Hermida wasn't missed. The once highly touted prospect couldn't even get a major league deal this offseason, and instead will head to Cincinatti on a minor league contract and try to earn a spot on the bench. Hermida continues to get worse every year.

- Marco Scutaro, SS, #16 - Sox fans and front office alike are hoping Scutaro can become what the franchise has lacked since Nomar: a consistent, every day shortstop who lasts more than one year. Just like Cameron, Scutaro can flash the leather and is on-par with his average season batting line every year. Reports out of spring training are that him and Pedroia have a nice middle infield flow already, and by hitting in the nine spot, Marco would have to be a complete bust to not meet his mediocre expectations. He is familiar with Fenway from his past two years with Toronto, and with his two year contract with a third year mutual option, he will have both the time and comfort of adjusting to being the Red Sox new starting shortstop. And although Scutaro is 34, every season of his career he has showed improvement.
Projected Line: .280 BA, 90 R, 10 HR, 50 RBI, 12 SB

ACTUAL RESULT: Scutaro is almost too easy to predict. He hit .275 with 11 HR, 56 RBIs, 92 runs, and 5 steals. Theo didn't sign Scutaro for his bat, he signed him as a defensive stop-gap and transition player to Jose Iglesias. But Scutaro had a career worst year in the field, and made 20 errors, which is completely unacceptable. If he doesn't improve on his defense, look for Theo to make a quick and early move to acquire another shortstop for the short term until Iglesias is deemed big league ready.

- John Lackey, SP, #40 - Lackey will be spending his first year out of Anaheim in a place he has pitched extremely well in the past. Fenway has almost always been friendly to Lackey, who only two years ago took a no hitter into the ninth against the Sox. He is probably the best middle of the rotation starter in the game, and should find comfort in moving from his star-pitcher status on the Angels to being buried in the excellent depth of the Red Sox rotation. Lackey is once again healthy and should make 28-32 starts, winning at least half. His half-decade of consistency and intensity in the American League made him one of the most valuable commodities in free agency this year, and could be the difference for this years Sox team. He is a young veteran with an intimidating physical presence on the mound, and will certainly be a staple in what could be the best rotation in baseball this year.
Projected Line: 31 GS, 16-7 WL, 165 K, 17 HRA, 3.77 ERA

ACTUAL RESULT: Lackey underachieved, going 14-11 with a 4.40 ERA. Although he was the most consistent starter on the Sox, he was consistently mediocre and will have to improve on his 2010 numbers. Lackey is always good for 10+ wins, but to win the East, the Sox need him to pitch like his 2007-self, with an ERA around 3 and win 15+ games, with or without the excellent run support that he received in 2010.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

2k11 NFL Mock Draft Collection


In the above image is my compilation of available mock drafts on the internet from major sports writers. The Patriots have 3 picks in the first 33, which are highlighted in blue. It is always interesting to see who gets what right, as well as how the draft predictions change over the course of the months leading up to the draft. There are always draft day trades that change the order, especially when it comes to BB, but usually at least 65% of teams stay put in the first round. I haven't released my mock draft because I like to not only examine other drafts, but actually look at the players and watch the scouting combine (February 23rd-March 1st at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indy). Players can severely affect their draft status with inferior or superior combine workouts, so pre-combine mock drafts are often less than 50% correct. Observe and enjoy.

Bruin Up A Storm


I'm what some would call a "couch-sleeper". I probably spend the night on the couch an average of 2-3 times per week. I have a perfectly good bed, as many lucky females could attest to, but there is something comforting about our ripped up, beer-soaked couch that really hits my slumber g-spot. Maybe I am mentally preparing the miserable years I will spend married to three or four different wives....
The common denominator for most couch nights begin with a Boston sports event. Don't get me wrong, I find nothing boring about hockey, football, baseball, or basketball. But admittedly, I slept through the entire Patriots-Bears and Patriots-Steelers games this year. I also often find myself awaking for the final minute of Celtics or Bruins games. However, last night's Bruins-Habs matchup was an absolute do-not-miss. It was hands down the most exciting and bad ass game of the year. The best part was that the B's held a 3 goal lead with a minute left, so it wasn't even a question of if they would come away with the victory at the end. It was one of those games that even if I had been up 50 straight hours and drank half a bottle of Nyquil, I STILL would have been jumping on the couch, screaming at the TV like an 8-year old tantrum.
There were only three low-lights in the game. The first was that the Habs scored 4 goals on 8 power plays. The second was Kreiji getting the shit kicked out of him by Benoit Pouliout. The third was more of a disappointment then a negative, but Tim Thomas' "fight" against Carey Price was one of the more pathetic showings that I have seen in a while. It probably would've been better if Price wasn't such a vagina and actually wanted to fight, but instead he just kept Thomas in check with his jersey over his head.
To fully appreciate the game, watch the ESPN recap. I won't bother explaining who fought who, but in total there were 187 penalty minutes doled out to 23 players, including 13 fighting majors and 6 misconducts. Travis Moen led the Habs with 22 minutes in the box, and of course, Shawn Thornton led the B's with 17 of his own (even though he only had 9 minutes of ice time in the entire game). The 12:36 melee in the second period will go down as one of the highlights of the season, where 13 penalties were given to 9 players, ending 12 seconds later with a Canadians power play goal. But when the dust settled, the Bruins had an 8-5 lead with less than a minute remaining, and took the game 8-6 (after a 2 man advantage goal by Pacioretty).
The moral of the story is that last night's Bruins game was the definition of Original 6 hockey. Two storied franchises with an epic disdain for each other went at it full steam, leaving only Habs fans and players alike in agony at the end. The Bruins will face the Habs in Montreal on March 8th, and they'll face off one final time at the Garden on March 24th. Start looking for tickets now, because the division will certainly come down to the wire.

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

I Love Tommy Heinsohn


In honor of the most bias color commentator of all-time, I am posting some of Tommy Heinsohn's most outrageous blowups. As any Celtics fan knows, no one is more passionate then the former Boston player and coach. Although he was inducted into the Hall of Fame as a player in 1986, he will certainly not be recognized for his objective point of views anytime soon....

Oh Wait a Minute, WAIT A MINUTE!

Tommy Things the NBA is STUPID

WHAT IS THE MATTER WITH THESE GUYS?!?!

Please make SURE you at least watch the third video. For those of you unfamiliar with Heinsohn's outbursts, this is NOT atypical at all. And for good measure....

I LOVE WALTER