2010 NFL Turnarounds

The NFL in the most competitive and variable sports league. That bottom line is what attracts so many fans to the game. Because of talented drafts, the salary cap, and multiple tangibles that create the formula for each team, the league leaders and cellar-dwellers often swap places on a yearly basis. For instance, look at the 2007 Miami Dolphins. After sporting a horrendous 1-15 record, they turned the corner immediately and won the AFC East in 2008 with an 11-5 record. The 2007 team had a horrible starting lineup, including an offense made up of QB Cleo Lemon, RB Jesse Chatman, and WR's Marty Booker, Chris Chambers, and Tedd Gin Jr., all of whom failed to produce sufficient yardage and offensive support. The defense was 4th in the NFL against the pass, but finished dead last against the run. Offensively, they ranked 23rd in rushing yardage and 24th in the air. They finished 28th in total yardage, and 26th in scoring, while allowing 27.3 points per game which ranked 30th. So how did they produce a +10 win differential in 2008? They brought in QB Chad Pennington, who posted a 97.4 passer rating while throwing 19 TD's and just 7 picks. Their run game was bolstered by splitting carries between Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, who together rushed for over 1500 yards and 14 touchdowns. They jettisoned Booker and Chambers and replaced them with rookies and younger receivers like Devone Bess, Greg Camarillo, and tight end Anthony Fasano. Defensively, Joey Porter finished second in the league with 17.5 sacks, and although the passing defense dropped to 25th in the league, the run D moved up to 10th overall. The improvement could be attributed to the return of safety Yeremiah Bell, who missed virtually all of 2007 with an injury. Young defenders also stepped up, such as linebacker Channing Crowder, safety Renaldo Hill, linebacker Matt Roth, and cornerback Will Allen. Coach Cam Cameron's one year disaster ended abruptly, as Miami brought in Cowboys assistant coach Tony Sparano to head up the team. He took a 1-15 team to a division title and the playoffs in one year, and won 18 games in his first two seasons with a team that had won just 20 games in the past 4 combined seasons. Sparano had a huge impact with his draft picks, taking future starters Jake Long, Chad Henne, Phillip Merling, Davone Bess, and Dan Carpenter. On top of the roster changes, the Dolphins imported the great Bill Parcells as the team GM, completing a drastic team makeover.
As you can see by the chart, there have been quite a few heavy turnarounds in the past decade, such as the 2001 Patriots, 2001 Bears, 2006 and 2009 Saints, and the 2008 Cardinals. There is at least one or two surprises each year, which leads to the final question: Who will it be in 2010? So far, there are FOUR teams who have turned their luck around and managed to improve on disappointing 2009 campaigns:

1. 2010 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The 2009 Bucs began the season by losing seven straight games, finally breaking the streak against Green Bay off the bye week. They featured three different starting QBs during the season (Byron Leftwich, Josh Johnson, Josh Freeman), and finished 28th in the NFL in total offense. They averaged a measly 185 yards per game in the air, 101 yards per game on the ground, and averaged just 15.3 points per game which was good for 30th in the league. Their usually stellar defense finished a respectable 10th against the pass, but dead last against the run, allowing over 158 yards per game. They also suffered from a -5 turnover ratio, as their QBs threw 29 interceptions, only lower than the Detroit Lions in that category. What changes were made to change the 3-13 team to a 4-2 playoff contender just a year later? The team ousted Leftwich to go with Freeman as the exclusive starting QB. They signed undrafted college standout RB LeGarrette Blount from Oregon, and he has averaged almost 5 yards per carry through 6 games. They bolstered their weak WR group by drafting Arrelious Benn from Illinois and Mike Williams from Syracuse. Williams already has 3 TDs and 28 receptions for 365 yards through 6 games, all while being hobbled by an ankle injury. On the other side of the ball, they attempted to improve their run defense by drafting star DT's Gerald McCoy and Brian Price, as well as safety Cody Grimm and corner Myron Lewis. They brought in safety Sean Jones from Philly, linebacker Jon Alston from Oakland, while letting WRs Antonio Bryant and Mark Bradley walk. Overall, 20 players from the 2009 team would not return in 2010. The offensive line now employees 5 players age 27 and under to protect 22 year old Freeman, and the running back quartet of Cadillac Williams, LeGarrette Blount, Earnest Graham, and Kregg Lumpkin have made a solid and formidable backfield. The defense features 4 new starters, all young with high potential. The offense has improved to 18th in passing yardage and 22nd on the ground, while averaging 16.3 yards per game. The team is still 31st against the run, but should improve as their youth gains experience. All-in-all, the Bucs are only somewhat better than last year, as their four wins have come against Cleveland, Cincinnati, Carolina, and St. Louis, who are a combined 8-18 and sit in their division cellars. They were blown out by the two challenging opponents they faced in Pittsburgh and New Orleans by a combined score of 69-19. They have project losses through the rest of 2010 against New Orleans, Baltimore, Seattle, Washington, and Atlanta (twice). And even if they win either against San Francisco or Arizona, the promising 4-2 start looks as though it is merely a fluke, as Tampa will most likely finish 7-9 and again miss the playoffs.
2. 2010 Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs overhauled their coaching staff over the past 3 years, bringing in head coach Todd Haley, OC Charlie Weis, and DC Romeo Crennel. Although most of the changes took place prior to the 2009 season, they have had a steady impact on the growth of the team. Former Patriots GM Scott Pioli took over in 2009, and immediately traded Tony Gonzalez to the Falcons, after the team had failed to do so the past few seasons. Pioli then dealt the Patriots a second round pick for new franchise QB Matt Cassel and veteran linebacker Mike Vrabel. Key personnel changes turned a team that was 2-14 in 2008 and 4-12 in 2009 into the AFC West leading, 4-2 2010 version. This years squad leads the league in rushing, eclipsing the 1000 yard mark just 6 games in, led by lightning fast Jamaal Charles and Jets castoff Thomas Jones. Although the team ranks 30th in the passing game, Matt Cassel has shown improvement while throwing to youngsters Dwayne Bowe, Dexter McCluster, and Tony Moeaki. The defense is extremely inexperienced but is 5th against the run, thanks to veterans Derrick Johnson, Mike Vrabel, and Brandon Carr, while also featuring young studs to the likes of Tamba Hali, Glenn Dorsey, Tyson Jackson, Brandon Flowers, Eric Berry, and Javier Arenas. The influx of talent brought in by the rejuvenated staff has greatly improved the overall talent of the roster. The team has already surprised with wins against San Diego, San Francisco, and Jacksonville, as well as losing close games to Houston and Indy by a combined 13 points. The Chiefs have been flawless at home, and should have future wins against Buffalo, Denver, Oakland, Arizona, and St. Louis. If they split the series against Oakland and Denver, and can surprise Seattle on the road, the Chiefs could finish around 10-6, which would be good enough to take the AFC West.
3. 2010 Seattle Seahawks - After Pete Carroll's prior unsuccessful NFL stints, many had doubt that he could turn the Seahawks around. But he currently has them in first place in the NFC West at 4-2, which almost matches last years win total of 5. Carroll lead the league with the biggest roster overhaul, through both trades and the draft. He immediately dealt for Matt Hasselbeck's future replacement in Charlie Whitehurst, and has traded for Marshawn Lynch, Leon Washington, and Stacey Andrews. Through free agency, he brought in former bust Mike Williams, who has shined at WR. He also signed RB's Chris Henry and Michael Robinson, WR Brandon Stokely, TE Chris Baker, guard Chester Pitts, and LB Matt McCoy. They had one of the best drafts of 2010, bringing in impact players to the likes of WR Golden Tate, TE Anthony McCoy, tackle Russell Okung, and FS Earl Thomas, the likely defensive rookie of the year. Carroll either released or decided to not retain 19 players from last year's squad, while bringing in 13 free agents to replenish the roster. Offensively, the team ranks in the bottom third in all categories, but has generated just about the league average of 20 points per game. The biggest improvement has been defensively, and although they rank in the bottom against the pass, they have the NFL's second best run defense and are allowing only 17.8 points per game. What does the future hold for Seattle? They face playoff contenders in 7 of their final 10 games, and have only 3 "should-wins" against St. Louis, Carolina, and Tampa Bay. They potentially could beat the 49ers again, as well as Oakland and KC, but at best Seattle is probably looking at a final record of 10-6. Luckily for them, as long as Arizona is worse than 7-3 the rest of the way, Seattle should win the division just a year after finishing 5-11.
4. 2010 Washington Redskins - It was obvious the team would improve by bringing in veteran coach Mike Shanahan in 2010. The question was by how much? The team could potentially be 6-1, losing by just a field goal to Houston and Indy. They have already beat division foes Philly and Dallas, thanks to improved QB play by newly acquired Donovan McNabb. Injuries have already plagued the Skins, losing RB Clinton Portis, TE Chris Cooley, and FB Mike Sellers to the injury bug. But Shanahan is a master at depth, and has employed the likes of Keiland Williams, Ryan Torain and Fred Davis to fill the vacated roles. Somehow the Skins have managed to go 4-3 while competing with the leagues 31st ranked defense, but have kept opponents from the end zone, allowing a mere 19 points per game. McNabb and co. have vastly improved the passing game, as their 236 yards per game is good for 11th in the league. Even with ample amounts of injuries, they have still managed 97 yards per game on the ground as well. Their 18.6 points per game is nothing special, but they haven't needed a ton of offense as they held Green Bay, Dallas, Philly, and Chicago to under 18 points and were victorious in each game. They were embarrassed by St. Louis on the road, mostly due to their inability to defend the pass. Shanahan let 22 players leave in his short tenure, while acquiring veterans like punter Josh Bidwell, CB Philip Buchanon, LB Chris Draft, WR Joey Galloway, RB Quinton Ganther, DE Vonnie Holliday, RB Ryan Torain, and WR Bobby Wade. Washington will have to improve defensively, as they face a very difficult stretch in the last 10 games. Following their week 9 bye, they face playoff contenders in all of their final 8 games. It is hard to see Washington winning more than 5 of their final 9 games, and their wins will probably be fewer and farther between. Washington is notorious for their late season runs, but under this new regime it is safe to assume they will remain consistent, and finish at or around 8-8 for the season. They most likely will not make the playoffs, and if they eek out a wild card birth, look for them to lose convincingly in the playoffs.

Due to the nature of their schedules, my prediction is that Seattle and Kansas City will hold on to their divisions, but Tampa and Washington will fail to make the playoffs. But again, this is the NFL, where the disarray and unpredictability is embraced.

FBS Survivor Football

Although the theory is far from historically accurate, it would be nice to assume that if there are only 2 remaining undefeated teams in the FBS this year, they will face off in the BCS National Championship. Because the NCAA can't seem to get their act together and instill a much needed BCS playoff format, there have been multiple seasons that undefeated teams have been left out of consideration for the National Championship thanks to the wonderful computer rankings. As a result, there have been countless controversial weeks, seasons, and Bowl match-ups. But heading into week 7 of the season, 10 unbeatens remain, with two assuredly to be eliminated as LSU and Auburn square off, and Missouri-Oklahoma will also eliminate one or the other. In the end, there will probably be a National Championship of two "undeserving" teams with a loss on their record, such as Ohio State, Alabama, or Nebraska. But in the meantime, one can only hope that the much deserving Boise State finds a way to finagle a spot in the National Championship. The graphic shows the schedules of the remaining undefeateds, as well as how they have fared thus far. Speculate away.

True Fantasy Football

Piggybacking off Adam Schefter's “Let's make some unreal deals”, I thought it would be interesting to look at a few NFL teams' weaknesses and strengths as the trade deadline approaches, and propose a few “realistic” trade scenarios. The NFL trade deadline is Tuesday, October 19^th, and history shows that actual trades are few and far between. Chalk that up to the lengthy amount of time it takes players to adjust to new systems and playbooks, as well as teams not “throwing in the towel” as they do in the MLB and NBA. NFL trades are usually mid to low draft picks exchanged for depth, with the occasional player swap or higher pick for a malcontent stud. Below are a few trades that would benefit all involved parties, but none are likely due to the nature of the most competitive sports league:

• Redskins trade 2011 1st-Rd Pick to Panthers for DeAngelo Williams

  • With an offense loaded with veterans to the likes of Donovan McNabb, Santana Moss, and Chris Cooley, the Skins are in win-now mode. Clinton Portis can't seem to stay healthy and is a far cry from his days in Denver, and Ryan Torain is not a feature back. The team is averaging 3.9 YPC, and rank 22^nd in the NFL at just under 90 yards per game on the ground. Williams will hit free agency after this year, and Carolina is in a transition year with a group of young receivers and Jimmy Clausen at QB. Dan Snyder is never shy about trading away draft picks, and Carolina could use as much young talent via the draft next year as possible. Williams would help Washington compete for the wide-open NFC East title, and Carolina can avoid tagging him by shipping him off sooner than later.

• Bears trade 2011 3rd-Rd Pick to Bills for Lee Evans

  • Evans is in the third year of the four-year, $37.25 million extension he signed in 2008. Buffalo could use every cent to address needs at almost every position, starting with the QB they take high in the first round of next year's draft. After they lock-in Andrew Luck, Jake Locker, or Ryan Mallet, they then can focus on WR depth, but for now they have no need. Chicago needs more weapons for Jay Cutler, as Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, and Devin Hester aren't exactly threatening to the opposition. Evans has good hands and excellent speed, and would fit well with the strong-armed Cutler as Chicago tries to rebound from last year's disappointing 7-9 campaign.

• Cardinals trade Derek Anderson and 2011 4th-Rd Pick to Bills for Ryan Fitzpatrick

  • Any viable QB option has got to be better than Anderson and Max Hall, right? Even with Larry Fitzgerald and co., the Cards are 29^th in the NFL in passing offense, thanks to horrific play by their quarterback carousel. Fitzpatrick has shown consistent improvement in his short career, and would benefit from facing lesser competition in the NFC West. With the 49ers' struggles, the division is up for grabs and the Harvard alum could be the difference between first and third.

• Patriots trade 2011 5th-Rd Pick to Giants for Danny Ware

  • The Giants are set at running back between Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, and barely use Ware at all. The Patriots have a plethora of mediocre backs that get the job done, but they need a short-yardage bruiser-type back who could double as a fullback. Enough already with using lineman and defensive players as goal-line lead blockers; the Patriots haven't had a true-fullback on their roster since Heath Evans' departure. At six feet, 240 pounds, Ware fits the bill as a scenario-usage running back to compliment and/or assist Benjarvus Green-Ellis and the oft-injured Fred Taylor.

We'll Love Tyler, But How About Nathan?

With all of the hype surrounding 18 year-old forward Tyler Seguin, the Bruins' prized pick from the last NHL draft, the acquisition of winger Nathan Horton went somewhat unnoticed. The B's traded porous defenseman Dennis Wideman to the Panthers for Horton, who is a former 3rd overall pick from the 2003 draft. The 25 year-old Horton has been considered an underachiever thus far, but has been more than decent the past 2 seasons, posting 45 and 57 point campaigns, respectively. The knock on Horton was that after posting consecutive 62 point seasons from 2006-2008, he has been hampered by injuries and lack of production, missing 32 games and tallying less total goals each of the past 4 seasons. Nevertheless, expectations of Horton in Boston should be nothing short of high, as he has shown over the first two games.
In Boston's season opener against the Coyotes in Prague, the defense played sluggishly and the Coyotes had a 4-0 lead going into the 3rd period. Horton sparked a comeback attempt for the Bruins early in the third, tallying his first and second goals as a Bruin at the 3 and 9 minute mark, closing the gap to 4-2. That was all the Bruins would get, giving up an empty-netter with a minute left to fall by a final score of 5-2. The good? Horton not only showed that he can be the scoring threat the Bruins desperately need and lacked last season, but he also displayed an ability to produce with the first line of Kreiji and Lucic.
In the B's second game, again facing Phoenix, Tim Thomas posted a 3-0 shutout in his first start of the season. Horton was again a factor in the game, assisting Lucic on the first goal at the 12 minute marker in the second period, and then scoring off a Recchi/Kreiji assist to open up a 2-0 lead. After the first 2 games, Horton has an impressive 4 points, tied for second in the NHL, and a plus/minus of +2. Seguin scored his first NHL goal in the win, and B's fans got a peek at the potential success of this young Bruin team that sports 15 regulars under the age of 26.

The Future of Tom Brady

All good things must come to an end, as horrifying as the end may be. To Patriots fans, Tom Brady's retirement will certainly be the end of the greatest decade and a half of football. With Brady signing a 4-year extension that runs through the 2014 season, it is difficult to forecast whether Brady will retire, re-sign, or sign elsewhere. Brady has stated he wants to play until he is 40, but very few teams in NFL history have been willing to commit to a 37+ year old as their QB. It would be interesting to speculate who could possibly replace Brady, but it is nearly impossible as his heir-apparent is probably a junior or senior in high school currently. But in determining what Brady will do when his $72 million contract runs dry, a safe form of prediction is to look at the history of the position. Above is a compilation of QB's with similar careers to Brady's, both statistically and in terms of playoff and Super Bowl appearances and wins.
The 9 QB's selected won a combined 20 Super Bowls to go along with 5 MVPs over a 42 year span. They all threw 150+ TD passes and for 22,700+ yards while making 68 playoff appearances in 120 chances, equating to more than 50% of their careers. The oldest to retire was Jim Plunkett, who played through age 39, but the average age of retirement is about 37 years old. If history shows us anything, 15-16 seasons is usually the maximum amount of playing time, and the 2014 season will be Brady's 15th. Growing up in San Mateo, California, many speculate that Brady will return to his home state and finish his playing days with the 49ers or a new LA-based franchise. But many of the games greatest players solidified their prestige by staying with one franchise their whole career, including Hall of Famers Terry Bradshaw, John Elway, Derrick Thomas, Andre Tippett, Michael Irvin, Steve Young, Troy Aikman, Barry Sanders, and Mike Singletary (to name a few).
Brady already holds many NFL records, including most TD passes in a season (50), most consecutive playoff wins (10), and most wins in a regular season (16). A sixth round draft pick out of Michigan in 2000, no one could have predicted Brady would become one of the best to play the game. He is the NFL first team all-decade QB of the 2000s, and a Hall of Fame shoe-in. Staying on the same team solidifies his place as the greatest Patriot of all time, and retiring in New England would be the ultimate showing of allegiance, professionalism, and greatness. In the end, it would be best for all parties for Brady to retire following the 2014 season, finishing his unprecedented career where it started - in the small town of Foxboro, Massachusetts.

Three Years Deep

Three years deep into the 10-year, $1000 bet, Sean has taken an 11 home run lead. Sean's squad saw three of his five players HR totals drop from 2009, but Chris Young took a big leap forward hitting 27 jacks as opposed to his 15 last year. Most disappointing was Ryan Braun, whose HR total has dipped each of the three seasons, bottoming out at 25 this year. Tyler's team showed improvement over 2009 totals, but still did not match the yearly high of 181 in 2008. Only one player's totals dipped, as Ryan Howard hit a career-low 31 homers. This can be attributed to him missing 19 games, the majority of which in August, where he only hit one HR for the month. David Wright rebounded nicely from his 10 HR campaign in 2009, popping 29 on the season. The foreseeable future looks grim for Tyler's squad unless Howard can begin to hit 45+ HRs per season again. It is also very difficult for Tyler personally to have to root for A-Rod to revert back to his 40-50 HR's per season form, as he has only totaled 95 over the last 3 seasons. The player rankings for the 3-year totals look like this:

1. Pujols - 126 HR
2. Howard - 124 HR
3. Dunn - 116 HR
4. Cabrera - 109 HR
5. Fielder - 102 HR
6. Rodriguez - 95 HR
7. Braun - 94 HR
8. Holliday - 77 HR
9. Wright - 72 HR
10. Young - 64 HR

Although this contest was about longevity, it is interesting to look at the actual league leaders over the past 3 years in comparison to the players drafted. Only 3 years in, both Sean and Tyler would probably change quite a bit about their teams in terms of the players they selected:

1. Pujols - 126 HR
2. Howard - 124 HR
3. Dunn - 116 HR
4. Cabrera - 109 HR
5. Adrian Gonzalez - 107 HR
   
6. Mark Teixeira - 105 HR
   
7. Mark Reynolds - 104 HR
   
8. Prince Fielder - 102 HR
   
9. Carlos Pena - 98 HR
   
10. Dan Uggla - 96 HR

Finally, I present the worst news for Sean. Take a look at the first graphic, featuring the top HR leaders from the past 3 years. Sadly, Chris Young ranks 57th in baseball. If he turns it around, he could be devastating for the competition as he is still only 27 years young.

Randy is No Moss

The New England Patriots have made plenty of confusing, controversial, and head-scratching moves over the years, but this one takes the cake. The Patriots are 3-1, coming off a 41-14 blowout of Miami on the road, and heading into a much needed bye-week. So why trade Randy Moss for as little as a third rounder in 2011? As a Patriots fan, it is easy to be bias against the trade and look past any possible justifications to why they would trade the NFL's 5^th all-time leading receiver. But before jumping ship on what is still one of the best teams in football, lets look at the pluses and minuses of the deal....

• The Negatives

  • The first point that Patriots fans will point to is the lack of depth after Moss. The trade leaves them with 5 true receivers in Wes Welker, Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, Matt Slater, and Taylor Price. Welker is still good for 6-10 catches per game, even without defenses keyed in on Moss. Tate has shown he can return kicks and has play-making ability on offense, but only has 11 career receptions, all of which coming this season. Edelman is a poor-man's Welker and hasn't done anything this year, and probably won't be much of a factor. Slater doesn't have a single catch in his career and is nothing but a special teams fill-in. Price is a rookie who has yet to be activated for a game, but should see his first action when the Pats return to the field against Baltimore in two weeks. All-in-all, Welker is the only WR on the Patriots with over 41 career receptions, and is also the only WR with more than 3 seasons in the NFL.

  • Moss leaves the Pats with a void at the true split-end spot. Brandon Tate is listed generously at 6-1, 195 pounds. His size is a far cry from Moss, and he certainly doesn't have the hands or jumping ability that Moss has to outreach and out-muscle smaller DB's. The lack of a deep threat will allow defenses to stack 7 or 8 men in the box and stuff the already poor run game. Moss was able to draw two and three man coverage at times, opening up the field for Brady's “midget-army”.

  • Moss's pure scoring ability will be greatly missed. His 50 touchdowns in 52 games with the Patriots easily led the team in scoring, and his 15.1 yards per reception led the team over the last 4 years. True, Welker led the team in receptions each of Moss's seasons in New England, but his 18 touchdowns in that same time period is a far cry from what Moss produced in terms of scoring. The combination of Edelman/Tate/Price/Slater have one career touchdown, which makes the trade of Moss all the more unbearable.

  • When the Pats traded for Moss prior to the 2007 season, they gave up a 4^th rounder to Oakland. This time, Moss was dealt for a 3^rd rounder. The Vikings are desperate for WR help in what SHOULD BE Favre's last year, as Sidney Rice will miss half the season with injuries, and Percy Harvin has been hampered by migraines and a hip injury. Moss reportedly asked to be dealt after Week 1, and with teams like Chicago, Minnesota, Washington, St. Louis, Carolina, and San Francisco all looking for WR help, how could the Patriots not get a better offer for one of the NFL's best? Understandably they didn't want to trade Moss within the AFC, but even pitting Chicago and the Vikings against one another should have helped them at least get a second round pick.

• The Positives

  • Rookie tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski have broken the Patriots trend of lack-luster tight ends. Hernandez has been used as a receiver more than a tight end, and his 6-1, 245 pound frame makes for an excellent target. His 18 receptions is second to only Welker, and his 240 yards receiving leads the team. More impressive is his 18 receptions in 20 targets, a 90% catch rate. Moss was targeted by Brady 22 times and caught 9 passes, equating to only a 41% rate. Brady often seemed to keyed in on Moss, often forcing the ball to him and wasting his other options. Brady completed 61 passes to Gronkowski/Welker/Hernandez/Tate over the first 4 games, and Belichek obviously feels there are enough weapons to justify the loss of Moss.

  • The unbalanced offensive attack has proven less and less successful since the 2007 season. The Patriots simply cannot get away with airing the ball out 50 times a game, and need to revert back to a balanced offense. Hosting two or three tight ends on the field, all of whom with excellent pass-catching ability, allows for better run blocking as well as the element of surprise. The Pats will now feature more “heavy” offensive packages, lining up Alge Crumpler as a third tackle, Gronk at TE, and using Hernandez as a wing or split wide. Offensive packages like this require only one WR on the field, which will be Welker. Overall, the short passing game isn't affected, as Moss was never one to catch 5-8 yard passes and never really seemed interested in going over the middle.

  • Without Moss, it will make game planning a lot harder on the opposition. Brady often finds a specific player to target in any given game, whether it is Hernandez, Welker, Moss, or his backs. Teams will have a harder time preparing for what the Patriots have to throw at them, both in terms of formations and primary targets. As we've seen through the first four games on special teams, Tate has excellent speed and makes for a decent down-field threat. Brady should be able to find him deep a few times this season, as the short passing and running games will pull in the safeties and open up the deeper part of the field.

  • Regardless of the rebuilding rumors, the Patriots ARE NOT looking ahead to next season. They have a plethora of young talent on both sides of the ball, and the defense took a huge step forward against Miami. They have a lot of play-makers with potential on offense, and now have two picks in each of rounds one through four in the 2011 draft. The draft is loaded with offensive talent, potentially hosting players such as Mark Ingram, Ryan Williams, Noel Devine, Daniel Thomas, and Demarco Murray at tailback. Recievers Julio Jones, AJ Green, Leonard Hankerson, and Jonathan Baldwin head up the WR class, all of whom possess Moss-like size and speed. Defensively, standout defensive backs Prince Amukamara, Aaron Williams, Patrick Peterson, Brandon Harris, Deunta Williams, and DeAndre McDaniel should all be there for the taking. Defensive end Robert Quinn could be the second coming of Julius Peppers, and Cameron Heyward, Jack Crawford, Dont'a Hightower and Quan Sturdivant all fit the Patriots flex 3-4 defensive scheme. With the potential of 3 picks in the first 33, and 8 in the first four rounds, the 2011 draft is a great opportunity to stack the team with young talent.

  • Finally, based purely on speculation, the Patriots should be shopping for a veteran WR. They are not known to be active during the lack-luster NFL trade deadline, but a few names have been flying around this year. Devin Thomas of the Redskins, Lee Evans of the Bills, and Vincent Jackson of the Chargers could all change uniforms, but realistically it is hard to see the Patriots interested in any big names. They are more likely to try and bring back Sam Aiken or bring Darnell Jenkins up from the practice squad. Knowing that they would not shell out an extension to Moss after the season shows their refusal to spend money on aging players, and are more likely to allocate those dollars to extending current players or attempting to lure Logan Mankins back to the team.

Truthfully, it is impossible to forecast the repercussions of this trade until we see how the team will respond without one of their offensive leaders, but the trade proves that Moss finally forced the Pats hand with his descriptiveness. Rumors of confrontations with Belichek as well as Moss's outspokenness about desire for an extension ultimately spelled the end to his Patriots tenure. It remains to be seen if the passing game will suffer without Moss, but only time will tell just how beneficial or devastating trading him is. But for know, AFC defensive backs can breathe sighs of relief until the Patriots establish that Brady will not miss a beat without his favorite down-field target of the past three years.

(For those of you who know very little Spanish, the title is a pun equating Moss to más)

NFL 2010 First Quarter Recap

After tonight's Miami-New England match-up, a quarter of the 2010 NFL season will officially be in the books. Consistently inconsistent, the NFL always holds surprises that no one saw coming. Whether it be over or underachieving teams or players, this year has stuck to the unpredictable storyline that separates the league from all other professional sports. This recap may be premature, but here are the biggest surprises from the first quarter of the season:

• Thanks to their Week 4 bye, the Kansas City Chiefs remain the only unbeaten team. Previous un-beatens Chicago and Pittsburgh both fell this week in defensive slug-fests. KC faces the Colts this week, which more then likely will hand them their first loss of 2010.

• Speaking of the Colts, after a last second loss to the Jags on Sunday, they start the season 2-2 for the first time since 2001, which coincidentally was the last time they missed the playoffs. With two divisional losses in the books, Indy is currently the cellar-dweller in the suddenly extremely competitive AFC South.

• Other surprise last place teams include, 0-4 San Fransisco, 0-4 Carolina, and 1-2 Dallas. All of those squads, as well as 0-4 Detroit and 1-3 Oakland were “supposed” to be on the upswing, while the likes of KC, Arizona, Seattle, St. Louis, Tampa, and Jacksonville succumbed to their lack of talent.

• The predicted bottom-two team in Buffalo has held true to the forecast, as they fell to 0-4 after being demolished by the Jets. They have allowed a league worst 125 points, while scoring 61 points to drop them to 4^th worst offensively. They play in one of the worst NFL cities, have the least talented team in the entire league, and have almost nothing in the future to look forward to except possibly moving to Las Vegas or Toronto and the first pick in the 2011 draft.

• Individual performances have made for weekly intrigue thus far. Arian Foster leads the NFL in rushing yardage by over 120 yards, and the top 5 include Darren McFadden and Ahmad Bradshaw, neither of whom have rushed for more than 780 yards in a season.

• Brady, Big Brother Manning, and Rivers rank among the top 5 in QB rating, but who saw Mark Sanchez and Mike Vick joining them? Vick went down with an undisclosed injury against Washington yesterday and will probably miss a few games, but Sanchez has been the opposite of a typical NFL sophomore QB.

• The top 10 WR rankings host an abundance of familiar faces, with the exception of one Brandon Lloyd. Second in the league with 454 yards, Kyle Orton has seemingly found a new favorite target who is poised to more than double his career high in yardage and receptions. Terrell Owens also surprised on Sunday, with his second highest receiving-yardage game of his career, hauling in 10 passes for 222 yards and a score. Still, the Bengals have been a shadow of last year's team and cannot seem to regain the offensive-juggernaut status they held in the earlier part of the decade.

• On the defensive side of the ball, leading tacklers Lawrence Timmons, James Anderson, and Bernard Pollard each have 41+ tackles. None of the top 10 in tackles this year finished in the top 10 last year, and the Redskins posses 4 of the top 15 in the league.

• Clay Matthews and Mario Williams are among the top 3 in sacks, continuing to prove the importance of youth and speed on the defensive side of the ball. Rookie safety Earl Thomas out of Texas is showing just how much of a steal he was for Seattle, leading the NFL with 3 interceptions, while defending 3 passes and recording 23 tackles through the first 4 games.

• Leading off the disappointments of the year, Reggie Bush was injured for the 4^th time in his 5 years in the NFL, proving the importance of drafting for durability.

• Matt Moore, Trent Edwards, and Jason Campbell all managed to find their ways to the bench before a quarter of the season had closed, giving way to Jimmy Clausen, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Bruce Gradkowski respectively. Jake Delhomme, Derek Anderson, Kevin Kolb, and David Garrard have all also found ways to justify their benching, continuing the NFL QB carousel mantra. 48 quarterbacks have already made appearances this year, proving that even third-string QB's have a shot at playing time of the right (or wrong) team.

• Running back's have hosted more disappointments then surprises in 2010. Peyton Hillis, Arian Foster, Mike Tolbert, Jason Snelling, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jahvid Best, John Kuhn, and Ryan Torain have all shown flashes of surprising success. But after that short list begins a scroll of slow-starters, early injuries, and poor performances, by the likes of Ray Rice, MJD, Chris Johnson, Cadillac Williams, Fred Taylor, Beanie Wells, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Fred Jackson, Montario Hardesty, Michael Bush, CJ Spiller, Knowshon Moreno, and Kevin Faulk, to name a few. Props to anyone with the foresight to scoop up Foster/Best/Tomlinson in their fantasy drafts, and the fantasy world feels the painful sting for those depending on Johnson, Rice, Moreno and Stewart.

• Leading receivers have been more consistent then other positions, but Mike Sims-Walker, Michael Crabtree, Jason Witten, Brent Celek, Heath Miller, Percy Harvin, Lee Evans, Jerricho Cotchery, TJ Houshmanzadeh, Early Bennett, Johnny Knox, and Mohammed Massaquoi have all failed to impress, due to limited targets, poor QB performances, injuries, or the lack of seizing increased playtime opportunities.

• Finally, below are the early leaders for the prestigious NFL awards. The regular candidates lead most awards, with a few surprises tossed in for fun.

1. MVP

   1. Peyton Manning

   2. Arian Foster

   3. Mark Sanchez

2. Offensive-POY

   1. Peyton Manning

   2. Philip Rivers

   3. Antonio Gates

3. Defensive-POY

   1. Clay Matthews

   2. Lawrence Timmons

   3. Ray Lewis

4. Offensive ROY

   1. Sam Bradford

   2. Jahvid Best

   3. Aaron Hernandez

5. Defensive ROY

   1. Earl Thomas

   2. Ndamukong Suh

   3. Nate Allen

6. Coach of the Year

   1. Todd Haley

   2. Gary Kubiak

   3. Rex Ryan

7. Golden Toe (Kicker)

   1. Matt Bryant

   2. Mike Nugent

   3. Neil Rackers

8. Comeback Player of the Year

   1. Brandon Lloyd

   2. Rashard Mendenhall

   3. Mike Vick